Euro 2012 Semi-Final: Has the Time Come for Germany to Break the Italian Curse?

‘Fabio Grosso.’ That name still gives me goose bumps. Six years have passed since that day in Germany in 2006. And yet, it lives on in my memory. Of course, I am referring to a clash between Germany and Italy in the 2006 World Cup that brought the Germans to their knees. Gianluigi Buffon had ensured the then dynamic duo of Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski failed to break the deadlock while Jens Lehmann had made his fair share of saves too.

It was in the 119^th minute in which the Italians punished the naïve Germans. A Grosso goal was followed by an Alessandro Del Piero goal. The only survivors from that day, six years later are Andrea Pirlo and Buffon himself. For the Germans, the survivors include the aforementioned Klose and Podolski as well as Bayern duo Bastian Schweinsteiger and Philipp Lahm and the coach Joachim Loew.

Germany in recent memory has thrashed England and Argentina. They have done away with the Dutch, the Portuguese, the Uruguayans and the Brazilians. It is the Italians that have refused to bend down to the German’s new generation. Of course, what has to be told is that only one meeting followed the one in 2006. In 2011, the two sides met in a friendly.

Germany led through a Klose goal. The Italian goal would have taken a battering had Buffon not stood between the posts. Italy equalized through a late goal from Giuseppe Rossi. Even a German side which was clearly miles ahead of their Italian counterparts could not beat the Italians. And hence, as the record stands, Germany has never, ever beaten Italy in a competitive match in their illustrious history.

Perhaps the biggest advantage of this generation is that they are all young—very few remember clashes with Italy prior to 2006. This generation consists of care-free and dynamic stars such as Thomas Mueller and Marco Reus. In 2006, both teams were surprise semifinalists. Also, both teams were equal at best in terms of quality.

Now, Germany is the bench mark for attacking football. Germany has scored a tournament high nine goals. In the quarterfinals, they controlled more possession than any other side at 76 percent. They scored more goals than any other side against a defensive team that just does not want to concede in Greece as well in the previous round.

Germany essentially has a plan A, plan B and plan C. They can either control possession and patiently break down opposition or even control possession and simply blast away the opposition. They can sit back, absorb pressure and thus, play on the counter as well. Plan C involves simply keeping their organization and searching for a goal, something they did against Portugal. Plan C is obviously for when all else fails.

Squad depth before was a problem. Now, squad depth is one of Germany’s biggest treasures. I have to admit that Germany did have pretty good depth in 2010 as well—Joachim Loew just didn’t utilize it. One of the worst decisions Loew made as a coach was to start Piotr Trochowski ahead of an in-form Toni Kroos against Spain in the semifinals. Trochowski was invisible. Kroos had Germany’s best chance of the match. Germany started to control things more when the Bayern München player came on.

This time, Loew has proved everyone wrong by taking huge but calculated gambles. He chooses his players according to the opposition. He dropped Per Mertesacker and Miroslav Klose for Mats Hummels and Mario Gomez and both paid off. He picked inexperienced Lars Bender to cover for Jerome Boateng against Denmark and that decision handsomely paid off. In the quarterfinals, he dropped three regulars and put in Marco Reus, Andre Schuerrle and Klose and once again, reaped the rewards.

Germany has done everything right to this point. They have beaten 15 straight opponents in competitive games—a world record. There are still those small weaknesses though. Manuel Neuer conceded a goal from a header again against Denmark. The German players with the exception of one or two (Lahm being one of them) are tall and this failure to defend properly from crosses or corners is rather strange.

They are vulnerable to counter-attacks as they showed against the Greeks. This can be put down to a certain extent to Bastian Schweinsteiger’s poor form—which is of course down to his ankle injury. Schweinsteiger’s partner in the defensive midfield, Sami Khedira is having a spectacular tournament.

It's time we take a look at the opponent, Italy, class of 2012. Italy’s football has evolved. Defensive football has gone out the window. The Italians come out with attacking intent now. They can be compared to Bayern—they control a lot of possession but don’t necessarily translate time on the ball to goals.

Mario Balotelli has done a fine job up front. He has missed his fair share of chances though. Mats Hummels will most likely be charged with keeping the striker at bay. Antonio Cassano has shown his talent in flashes but has also shown that he isn’t the best decision maker. He had a shot at a goal when he could pass to a teammate and chosen to pass when a shot would be a better option. He has a headed goal to his name and hence Germany will have to keep him away from the ball.

In midfield, Italy is having to roll on without Thiago Motta. Andrea Pirlo is their creative head. In Riccardo Montolivo, they have a player of Toni Kroos’ mould. Daniele de Rossi has been an absolute rock for the Italians. He has done everything to stop the opposition from attacking and accordingly, Italy has conceded only twice in the tournament. Of course, that was when he played at the back. With Andrea Barzagli's return, he shifted to midfield and has still been influential.

In the back, Italy isn’t the most convincing without Georgio Chiellini. They have to do without the suspended Christian Maggio who would have been a good option to combat Lahm as Federico Balzaretti is defensively suspect.

Andrea Barzagli played for Wolfsburg and didn’t impress too much even though he seems to have come good now. Ignazio Abate looked pretty good against England and looked good for AC Milan this season as well. However, it is Buffon that Germany has to fear the most looking back to the events of 2006 and 2009.

Against England, Italy failed to breakdown the back line. They had their chances to do so obviously. England had a limited number of opportunities, to break through the Italian defense but still had two clear chances to score. Antonio Nocerino and Alessandro Diamanti both showed plenty of promise and  mental strength when they came on in the match.

Cessare Prandelli has promised to come out and attack the Germans—or perhaps that was the euphoria of victory talking. Italy is pretty good on the counter-attack as well. This begs the question of how Joachim Loew will set out—will Germany control the game or will they look to win on the counter-attack?

This is my best guess at a line-up:

Manuel Neuer

Jerome Boateng- Mats Hummels- Holger Badstuber- Philipp Lahm

Toni Kroos- Sami Khedira

Thomas Mueller- Mesut Oezil- Marco Reus

Miroslav Klose

The reason Kroos might start is because of Schweinsteiger’s fitness problems. He was impressive in defensive midfield for Bayern. His elegance and passing ability is second to none. As long as he doesn’t take the set-pieces, he will be a fine addition to the side. Reus seems to be a better option than Lukas Podolski even though Podolski offers a bit more defensively.

Klose makes Oezil a better player. Gomez could be in with a shot but Klose just looks like the better option for this game. Mueller’s presence will give Boateng some protection, who wasn’t at his best against Greece.

Germany won their last major tournament in 1996. They knocked out Italy in the group stages by drawing 0-0 against them. So, Germany has a victory of sorts over the Italians. This time they will be hoping to get a numerical victory. Germany has a brilliant squad and is definitely huge favorites for this game.

If the past has taught us anything, it is that the Italians must be finished off quickly. Otherwise, they always come biting back, even in the 120^th minute.