Why Cubs' Anthony Rizzo Is One of Baseball's Most Wildly Overrated Prospects

On Monday afternoon, the Chicago Cubs officially announced that first baseman Anthony Rizzo would be recalled for Tuesday’s game against the New York Mets, according to Randy Peterson of the Des Moines Register.

Since mid-May, I have fielded countless inquiries regarding the Chicago Cubs' power-hitting prospect.

Why won’t the Cubs call him up given the state of their organization? What does he have left to prove in the minor leagues? Why was he not included in my most recent top-50 prospects rankings?

To some, especially Cubs fans, it likely seems as though I simply don’t like him—which isn’t true. Rizzo possesses some of best power among all prospects, and arguably the most of any left-handed hitter.

The robust offensive numbers he’s produced this season at Triple-A Iowa are absolutely astounding: .342/.405/.696, 43 XBH (23 HR), 62 RBI and 52 K/23 BB in 70 games.

However, to lump him into the same discussion as graduated top prospects Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, in terms of his potential, is hyperbole.

Yes, the 6'3", 220-pounder has the potential to hit 30-plus home runs in the major leagues, but don’t expect the 22-year-old to immediately produce as he has this season in Triple-A.

Concerning Trends

Despite his track record of production in the minor leagues, there’s still a considerable amount of swing-and-miss involved in his game and—even though he’s clearly made some improvements this season—a lack of a consistent approach.

Before he was shipped to the San Diego Padres prior to the 2011 season, as part of the deal that brought Adrian Gonzalez to Boston, Rizzo posted a 21.4 K percentage and 9.6 BB percentage over 467 plate appearances as a 20-year-old in Double-A in 2010—his first season at a higher minor-league level.

He spent the majority of the 2011 season at Triple-A Tuscon—with a big-league cup of coffee with the Padres in the middle of the season—and reaped the benefits of playing in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Although he batted .331/.404/.652 with 26 home runs and a .433 wOBA, Rizzo’s swing-and-miss tendencies were once again highlighted by his 21.5 K percentage and 10.4 BB percentage over 413 plate appearances.

His all-or-nothing approach was especially exploited during his brief stay in San Diego, as he batted .141/.281/.242 and registered a 30.1 K percentage and 13.7 BB percentage over 153 plate appearances. He was ultimately returned to Triple-A Tucson and subsequently dealt in the offseason to the Cubs for hard-throwing right-hander Andrew Cashner.

Although Rizzo has cut down on his strikeouts this season, as an 18.3 K percentage in 284 plate appearances would indicate, the left-handed slugger has also seen his walk rate decline to 8.1 percent—his lowest since 2009 in Low-A with the Red Sox.

It’s also important to remember that this is the 22-year-old’s second straight season at Triple-A in the Pacific Coast League, so his level of production this season is essentially on par with what should be expected of a player under such circumstances.

According to MinorLeagueCentral.com, Rizzo is swinging at even more pitches outside of the strike zone this season (11.3 percent) than he did with Triple-A Tucson in 2011 (10.7 percent), a trend that suggests little improvement in his plate discipline.

Furthermore, of those pitches out of the strike zone that he chases, he’s only making contact 25.5 percent of the time—another regression from his 27.6 percent in 2011—which is well below the 40.8 percent league average.

Rizzo’s Been Very, Very Lucky

While both the environment of the Pacific Coast League ballparks and poor pitching have clearly aided his production—the average league ERA is 4.72—Rizzo’s 2012 stats have been heavily inflated by an unsustainably high BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and HR/OFB (home run per outfield fly ball).

Through 284 plate appearances this season, Rizzo posted a .359 BABIP, which helped boost his batting average to a career-best .342. While he may be able to sustain a high BABIP in Triple-A (he posted a .369 BABIP in 2011), that will not be the case in the big leagues.

Although his 153 plate appearances last season with the Padres are a small sample size, he recorded a .210 BABIP relative to the National League average of .296.

Therefore, while power hitters may be able to get away with an all-or-nothing approach in Triple-A, it’s clearly a trend that doesn’t translate favorably at the big-league level.

Additionally, Rizzo’s insane power numbers this season are a result of his 41.1 percent HR/OFB, meaning that of the 56 outfield fly balls (OFB) that he’s hit this season, 41.1 percent of them have left the yard—Pacific Coast League HR/OFB average is 11.4 percent this season.

He’s also hit nearly as many ground balls this season (83) as he did over 413 plate appearances in 2011 (84). So to think that Rizzo will be able to hit slightly less than half of his outfield fly balls out of the park in the major leagues while combating his increasing strikeout and groundball trends is completely unrealistic.

Struggles Against Left-Handed Pitching

When Rizzo reached the majors with San Diego last season, his inability to hit left-handed pitching was painfully apparent, as he batted .172/.273/.345 with five hits and nine strikeouts in 33 plate appearances.

Even though he has made noticeable improvements this season—.321/.376/.679 with eight home runs and 18 strikeouts in 85 plate appearances—his tendency to pull off pitches and roll them over to the right side will surely be exploited upon his return to the major leagues—something he did 46.7 percent of the time against southpaws at Triple-A Iowa.

However, expect the Cubs to allow him to work through his struggles given that they want him to receive a majority of the at-bats among their first basemen, and it’s the only way for him to improve at this point. Plus, as we already know, it's not as though Bryan LaHair will fare any better.

High Expectations

As it has always been with Cubs prospects, the fanbase will have high expectations due to his minor-league track record and age.

However, I urge everyone to temper their expectations. Rizzo’s plus power will surely offer flashes of excellence this season, but he is by no means a polished hitter—regardless of how little one chooses to read into his stats.

He has everyday starter and occasional All-Star upside, but he will have to make numerous adjustments along the way. There’s plenty to be excited about with Rizzo—it’s just hard to envision him reaching his ceiling anytime soon.

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