NBA Draft 2012: The Player Each Lottery Team Should Avoid

Come Thursday, it will be essential for each lottery team to make the right decision for their franchise moving forward into the 2012-2013 season.

Some teams may be just a player or two away from being in the playoff hunt, while others need to pick up impact players immediately to avoid another dreadful season. 

Every year we see GM's make the wrong selections early on in the draft, which sets their team back for years to come. 

Sometimes teams jump at the highest rated prospect instead of the one who is the best fit for their individual team. Other times GM's defy conventional logic and take a player no one expected.

With the 2012 class being one of the deeper in recent memory, there will assuredly be good talent on the board at every selection. The key will be making sure teams find the right fit for their style of play and the personnel around them.

Assuredly their will be mistakes made come Thursday, but if teams were smart they would avoid these players when its their turn to be on the clock. 

1. New Orleans Hornets: Anyone but Anthony Davis

There doesn't seem to be much doubt about who will be going first overall in Thursday's draft.

After winning the lottery, the New Orleans Hornets gained the rights to select Kentucky Forward Anthony Davis with the first overall pick, and I don't see them going in any different direction.

Davis possesses amazing athletic ability, is a dominant defender, and is only beginning to grow offensively. He has the ability to be the next superstar big man in the NBA.

Passing up on Davis's potential would be an unforgivable error for the Hornets to make, but unless something drastically changes in the next four days, they will choose him with the first overall selection. 

2. Charlotte Bobcats: Bradley Beal

With Davis off the board, the Charlotte Bobcats will have their choice between Thomas Robinson out of Kansas, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out of Kentucky, or Bradley Beal from Florida.

While I can't see any of the these of three players being a bust, the Bobcats need to go with the sure bet, which in my opinion is Robinson.

Robinson has a much more NBA-ready game than the other two, and although he may have a lower ceiling, he will make an immediate impact for the team on the interior, which they desperately need. 

Kidd-Gilchrist has the potential to been an All-Star as well. He was not given the chance to shine too much at Kentucky because of their plethora of talented players. However, his physical nature, ability to get the ball to the rim, and finish in transition, will see him find a place in an NBA starting lineup for the next dozen or so years. 

Beal could easily become an All-Star in his own right, but the case may be harder to make. 

Beal is the furthest away out of the three of them from being a star in the NBA. While Beal has the Eric Gordon-type body and game playing from the perimeter, he never really stood out at Florida in his one season and could use another year or two at the college level to improve his game.

Don't get me wrong, I think Beal will be a good player in the NBA, but I don't think it will happen for a few years.

In Charlotte, they need impact players immediately, which is why they should shy away from Beal with the second overall pick come Thursday. 

3. Washington Wizards: Harrison Barnes

Unlike the Bobcats, I don't think the Wizards are that far away from being in the playoff hunt.

Yes, they will need to improve in several areas, but they have a good starting piece in John Wall, decent veterans such as Nene, Emeka Okafor, and Trevor Ariza, plus young players who are still developing like Jordan Crawford, Jan Vesely, and Andray Blatche.

Picking up a guy like Beal would make much more sense for the Wizards at number three than it would for Charlotte. 

Beal's shooting ability would fit well in the Wizards offense, and in a couple years a Beal-Wall backcourt could be awfully scary. 

Kidd-Gilchrist wouldn't be a bad fit either. Like at Kentucky, he wouldn't be relied upon to be the primary scorer, but instead would be one of several capable offensive threats.

What would not make sense is if the Wizards let those two players go and instead went with the riskier pick, North Carolina's Harrison Barnes.

Despite having all the talent in the world, Barnes was never able to be the dominating force at UNC that many expected him to be.

Barnes lacks the quickness needed to score off the dribble consistently against NBA defenders, and has not shown that at the NBA level, he is capable of putting a team on his back and becoming the superstar player many believed he would be.

In Sacramento with DeMarcus Cousins and Tyreke Evans already on board, he would be a nice third option, but in Washington, Barnes would be a failure. 

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Andre Drummond

Andre Drummond is by far the biggest anomaly in the 2012 NBA Draft.

Drummond could turn out to be the next Dwight Howard, or he could turn out to be the next Hasheem Thabeet. 

While his potential is obvious, he had a totally mediocre season at UConn and is extremely raw,especially on the offensive end.

As unpopular as it may be, I am one of the people who believes in the end, Drummond will become one of the bigger busts in this year's class. 

He managed only 10 points a game at Connecticut last season, despite coming in as the number two prospect in the country.

Drummond never took over and dominated the game like he should have at the collegiate level. After all, he has a Dwight Howard-like body at 7'0", 280 lbs, yet he never came close to impacting the game at the college level that Howard assuredly would have. He even fell short of the standard Greg Oden and Thabeet set in recent years for Centers in the college game. 

His rebounding and shot blocking stats were nice, but when choosing a player fourth overall, teams are going to want production on offense, and I'm not sure if Drummond is anywhere near being a productive offensive NBA player. 

He lacks any serious post game, and at the NBA level, his points may be reduced to put backs and alley-oops. 

For the Cavaliers, a team who is looking to build for the future around Kyrie Irving, they must get maximum talent with this pick, and I don't see Drummond being that player. 

5. Sacramento Kings: Jon Henson

As I mentioned earlier, the Sacramento Kings have a good nucleus of Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins, so adding a third piece to the puzzle will be essential for the Kings playoff hopes. 

While Jon Henson's frame and post game could end up making for a solid NBA player someday, he is a reach with the fifth overall pick.

Henson needs to bulk up big time if he's going to bang inside against NBA post players, because right now he is simply too thin to be productive in the pro's on defense.

I think Henson has decent value in the 10-15 range, but at number five it would be a huge stretch to draft Henson, despite the fact that the Kings have worked him out before the draft.

Going with Henson's college teammate Harrison Barnes would make much more sense with this selection.

6. Portland Trail Blazers: Kendall Marshall

The Portland Trail Blazers are in an excellent position in this year's draft, with two lottery picks at number six and number 11 Thursday night.

It is likely they will go with one perimeter player and one big man to max out the talent they can get at each position, and add to their already playoff ready roster.  If Andre Drummond is still on the board at six, expect the Blazers to take a chance on him. 

If not, they could go after UNC Point Guard Kendall Marshall. 

I like Marshall's ability, (I'm really not intending to hate so much on Carolina) especially as a distributor, but the reason I put him in this spot is because I like Damian Lillard out of Weber State much more if they are going to go with a PG.

If Portland goes with a big man in this spot, and Lillard is off the board at No. 11, then its understandable to draft Marshall, but with the sixth pick, if I am Portland, I am jumping all over Lillard.

Lillard dominated at the collegiate level with Weber State, and has all of the offensive gifts to be a great scoring point guard, which the Blazers could really use to compliment LaMarcus Aldridge. 

7. Golden State Warriors: Austin Rivers

Even with the trade of Monta Ellis during the season last year, the Golden State Warriors are still a perimeter oriented team.

In addition to Steph Curry, Golden State also has Richard Jefferson, Brandon Rush, Klay Thompson, Dorell Wright, and Charles Jenkins under contract for next season.

That is why I believe that the Warriors should look to the post with their seventh overall selection, possibly Tyler Zeller out of North Carolina.

Austin Rivers showed flashes of brilliance at Duke in his one season, but he was largely inconsistent and is still lacking critical parts of his game.

The Warriors also need to improve defensively, and Rivers is not a good defender right now. Plus sharing shots with Curry would be a disaster.

Overall, Rivers to the Warriors would be an awful fit for all parties involved. 

8. Toronto Raptors: Moe Harkless

Moe Harkless would have been a sure fire top-10 pick if he stayed one more season at St. John's. 

Instead, the 19 year-old decided to jump ship to the pro's this season,  and his draft position could vary anywhere between the top 10, and the end of the first round.

The Toronto Raptors at number eight are reportedly interested in Harkless as a possible sleeper pick with the eighth overall selection in the draft.

Harkless is extremely athletic and could end up being a great NBA player down the line, once his talent catches up. However, he is nowhere near ready yet.

With players such as Terrence Jones, Dion Waiters, Damian Lillard, and Jeremy Lamb also potential fits in Toronto, they would be much better off with those proven talents than that of the inexperienced Harkless.

If the Raptors want to improve in the upcoming season, they need a player to come in and make an impact from day one. Harkless is far away from being that guy. 

9. Detroit Pistons: Jared Sullinger

If Jared Sullinger had come out last season, he likely would have been a top-five selection. 

However, after staying another year at Ohio State, questions have lingered about his size, his athleticism, and recently, his health.

Now, he may fall out of the lottery altogether—that is unless a team is willing to take a flyer on his talent earlier than they should.

Detroit seems like they could be that team. 

The Pistons are in need of some interior play to aid Greg Monroe, and Sullinger could be an intriguing possibility. 

However, with Sullinger the risk seems to be much greater than the potential reward, especially when picking in the top 10.

Jon Henson is widely considered to be a strong possibility in this spot, and I think that makes for a much better fit. 

10. New Orleans Hornets: Terrence Ross

After they scoop up Anthony Davis with the top overall pick, the New Orleans Hornets will get another opportunity to improve when they pick 10th in the 2012 draft.

With this pick, the Hornets will assuredly try to improve their outside game and pick up a solid perimeter player to join their roster.

In my mind, they should try and avoid former Washington standout Terrence Ross.

Ross relies heavily on his jumper which wouldn't be a good fit with the Hornets. New Orleans needs a slasher like Dion Waiters or a point guard like Kendall Marshall to help shape up their roster.

The Hornets just traded for a SF in Rashard Lewis, and it would be smart for them to avoid drafting a young player like Ross only to bury him on the bench.

11. Portland Trail Blazers: Meyers Leonard

Assuming the Blazers do go the point guard route with their sixth pick, they will use the No. 11 selection to sure up their front court. 

There are plenty of big men on the market this season, but many scouts are raving over Illinois big man Meyers Leonard.

Leonard stands at 7'1", and that alone will be enough for some team to take a flyer on him towards the end of the lottery or at the latest, in the middle of the first round.

However, Leonard's game is not where it needs to be yet. His game reminds me of a poor man's Spencer Hawes, and he is not assertive enough to impact a game in the post.

His most intriguing aspect is his mobility for his size, but I don't see Leonard being the finisher in traffic that would compliment Portland's pick and roll offense. 

12. Milwaukee Bucks: Perry Jones III

I think Perry Jones III will end up being a good NBA player, but there are several reasons why he simply isn't the right fit in Milwaukee, who owns the 12th overall selection.

The Bucks have an already established backcourt with Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings, so logic says they also will look into the post with their first round selection.

However when you look closer, you can see that may not be the right move.

First off, the Bucks traded for a similar player to Jones just last season when they acquired another former Baylor standout, Ekpe Udoh.

They also have Drew Gooden, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Jon Brockman, Jon Luer, and potentially Ersan Ilyasova back with the Bucks next season. Where exactly is the playing time going to go for all of those forwards?

Jones also doesn't really fit in the Scott Skiles offense. I'd much rather see him go to a place where he can get out and run and establish himself offensively. 

13. Phoenix Suns: Marquis Teague

It is entirely possible that Steve Nash could have played his last game as a Sun, so the Phoenix front office will assuredly be looking for his air apparent come next season if he is on his way out.

Damian Lillard, Kendall Marshall, and Tony Wroten Jr. seem to be the consensus top three PG's on the board, but lurking not far behind is National Champion starter Marquis Teague out of Kentucky.

If Marshall and Lillard are both taken, which is entirely possible when the Suns come up at No. 13, they could like the upside of Teague more than Wroten and that would be a mistake. 

Teague played great in the NCAA Tournament, and was a huge reason why the Wildcats were able to win it all. 

Still, his pick and roll offense needs huge work and he isn't as good of a scorer and doesn't have the upside that Wroten Jr. does. 

The Suns may be desperate to land their next star PG, but in the lottery, Marquis Teague is not the answer. 

14. Houston Rockets: Arnette Moultrie

It may seem like I am down on big men in this draft, and that would be correct.

It's not that I don't think any of them will end up being solid NBA players, I just think as a group they are slightly overrated.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some solid guards drop into the 20's and even the second round but go on to have stellar NBA careers. It's out of necessity for many teams to draft a big man, even if they are raw, and it may be a reach in the lottery. 

One of those teams is the Houston Rockets, who are in need of some big bodies to sure up the middle.

Arnett Moultrie seems to be a popular pick in mock drafts for the Rockets at No. 14, but I think it would be the wrong move. 

Moultrie is a decent perimeter shooter, something that is nice to see from a big man. But he hasn't shown the ability yet to be a dominant low post player on either side of the ball.

Moultrie seems to be of the build of a guy who should be a great shot blocker and rebounder, but that hasn't been his game in college.

If I were the Rockets I would trade down a few spots and pick up either Fab Melo or Andrew Nicholson (two guys who I am high on), or even Tyler Zeller if he is still available.