J.D. Drew: The Battle between What We See Visually and Numerically

JD Drew.

The greatest example of Sabermetrics vs. The Human Eye.

For two years now, I have defended JD Drew as a player. For two years now, I have—at the same time—agreed with the detractors of the contract that he initially signed during the 2007 offseason.

JD Drew has been mostly underrated by the fans. But, possibly even overrated by the use of statistics (but at least rated close to accurately).

And, I love the numbers. I have a strong belief that the right numbers reflect accurately on the type of player that is actually swinging the bat, actually fielding the ball.

But, Drew has always been the most logical "poster-boy" for the said argument above. Again, Sabermetrics vs. The Human Eye.     

Maybe it's because Drew now plays in one of the largest markets. Or, maybe because I watch him frequently. Either way, if Drew isn't the best example of the argument, then he is right up there with the best of examples: the Adam Dunn's, the Pat Burrell's of the world, etc. 

However, Drew has a quality, or lacks a quality, whichever, that no one seems to have to the same degree.

Emotionless. As emotionless as one will see on a baseball field. 

This is nothing new to anyone who follows the baseball organizations that Drew has been a part of. He rarely shows emotion. Any time that he makes any kind of forced body movement, it seems just that, forced, actually catching one off-guard, confusing us for a split-second.

But, I understand why fans take this as a lack of caring about the sport that they love to watch. And, I understand why fans think there is so much more talent somewhere inside JD Drew.

Realizing that, I also understand how they underrate what he does on the baseball field. How the average fan seems so enthralled with the "walk-off" home run, that if a player doesn't hit like the 2006 version of Ortiz in clutch situations, then they aren't worthy of being considered good. Okay, that take on a fan's perception may include a little hyperbole, but sometimes it seems like that.

All JD Drew has experienced throughout his career, when on the field, is success. 

Although a corner outfielder, Drew has always played the position well. Now, don't get me wrong, a corner OF can only impact the game so much from the defensive side of the ball.

But, two things in reference to that:

1)  Every defensive position matters. Even the quality of a 1B's glove-work matters.  To a lesser degree, yes. But, if you hand me two players with the exact same offensive contributions—who also field the same position—then I am choosing the better defender, that should be obvious.

And, that goes for corner outfielders, too. And, there are other variables, obviously, age being one of them. But, I think everyone understands my point. 

2)  JD Drew isn't just an average defender. JD Drew has been pretty close to an excellent defender most of his career. According to John Dewan's Plus/Minus, Drew was second to only Ichiro in defending RF, from 2004-2006.

There is no shame to being second to Ichiro in that department, at that position.  Between 2006-2008, Drew still falls in the top tier, but just falls in a little further down at ninth.

So, Drew has always made the most of playing a corner outfield spot. And, Sabermetrics does value defense too. Not just walks, which seems to be a common misconception.

But, let's now discuss those walks that I referred to, for a second.

Joe Posnanski wrote a column not too long ago, where he stated a very important point about OBP.

Posnanski said that it isn't just walks, it is OBP as a whole. Andre Dawson defenders, Jim Rice defenders, they all seem to make fun of the "stat-guys" because they value walks differently. And, generally speaking, each side has created a different "value" for walks.

But, OBP is made up of average and walks. If a player doesn't draw too many walks, yet hits for a high average, then he can still have plenty of value no matter the way that he gets on base. Average fluctuates more, but hitters who consistently bat over .300 will most likely reach base more than the average hitter reaches base.

JD Drew is a lifetime .284 hitter. If Drew only "drew" 30 walks a season, then his offensive contributions would diminish greatly. What he "lacks" in batting average, Drew more than makes up for in reaching base via the walk...and, of course, he hits for power too. 

But, JD Drew has been an on-base machine over his career. People's beliefs on how walks impact the game of baseball may vary. But, can anyone argue that a .392 career on base percentage isn't really, really good? That is how often Drew has reached base in his career.

And, I am not ignoring that other aspect of the game that I mentioned very quickly.  The "hitting for power" part.

Drew has accomplished that, too. A career .502 slugging percentage to be exact.

The thing that both the Sabermetrics crowd and the casual fan can agree on is the "health aspect" of Drew's career. Both parties understand that Drew could be more effective if he stayed on the field more often, and that he is less effective because of the fact that he seems to miss time each year. No one is ignoring that. 

If JD Drew played 145+ games each year, then his team would benefit more, his counting numbers would benefit more, and his five-year contract would be warranted, more so. 

By the way, about that contract...

I mentioned that I agreed with the fans who thought the contract was too extravagant for an injury-prone player. The length was too long, and I still believe that. But, the money wasn't really all that bad, even more so for a team that has the capability to absorb financial hits like the Red Sox do. They are not the Yankees in the financial department, that is for sure. But, they are far from the average, in terms of financial resources. That is also for sure. 

And, Theo not having to surrender a draft pick because Drew opted out of the deal in Los Angeles is another reason that the deal isn't as bad as it was originally thought to be (that and the 2007 grand slam, the game winning homer against the Angels, and two huge hits in a monstrous comeback against the Rays). 

One thing I have always glanced at ever since the Red Sox signed Drew is how he has fared in "Late and Close" situations. 

Clutch may or may not exist. But, the existence of clutch is overrated.

However, defenders of Drew being overrated may have a point when they say that Drew is not "clutch."

Over his career, Drew has come to the plate 670 times in clutch situations. Roughly a season's worth of plate appearances, and having come over the course of his entire career, that is a pretty good sample size it seems. 

Drew has struggled some compared to his overall numbers: a .243 average, a .375 OBP, and a .428 slugging percentage. Each category takes a pretty significant hit—except the OBP is still well above average yet below his average. 

One cannot assume that Drew has butterflies in these situations. But, it cannot be dismissed either. Every year for the past five seasons Drew has been in the negative according to The Hardball Times in the area of "clutch." 

I cannot explain why this is. Maybe Drew doesn't really have any problems in tense situations. Maybe it is all just statistical gibberish in this particular situation.

Of course, maybe it isn't either.

But, the point that I am trying to make is that JD Drew has done nothing but perform when he actually does get on the field, as his numbers clearly state. And, because fans seem to hate him, but the stats seem to love him, he has always been the most intriguing baseball player to me—since he joined the Boston Red Sox, that is. I find it very compelling to compare what I see to what I research within the numbers.  

And, Drew is a great example of "what you see, isn't always what you get."