NBA Mock Draft 2012: Studs That Will Rise Up Boards by Draft Day
Players in the NBA draft have high ceilings, low upsides, raw athleticism, lack polish, are one-dimensional or "do all the little things it takes to win."
Some "shoot up the draft board" during the process, others "have red flags" that cause them to drop. Some are lottery-worthy, others are franchise superstars in the making and some we never bother to talk about during the draft—they slip through the cracks and become studs in the NBA.
There are a lot of cliches that make the rounds at the NBA draft. The easiest way to understand a new thing we aren't familiar with is to compare it to something we already have a concept of, after all.
For this mock, we'll be interested in the "draft risers" cliche, those players (in Italics) we thought were worthy of a lower draft pick before the draft process, but will likely be taken higher than many expect.
Let's begin.
1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF (Kentucky)
The Hornets can't announce that he's the pick yet, but we all know it. There is only one true, franchise-changing player in this draft, and that's Davis.
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Thomas Robinson, PF (Kansas)
Huge choice for Charlotte, who needs help in every conceivable area.
I think Robinson will make an instant impact and will need very little time transitioning to the NBA game. He and Kemba Walker should at least give Charlotte fans a little bit to get excited about next year.
3. Washington Wizards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF (Kentucky)
If MKG is here, he's gotta be the pick. His ability to impact the game in every conceivable manner while being an unselfish teammate will make him the perfect sidekick to John Wall.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal, SG (Florida)
If Harrison Barnes could create his own shot, he would be the pick. But that will never be a strength of his.
It won't be a problem for Beal, however, who projects as the ideal 2-guard and should be a perfect running mate in the backcourt of Kyrie Irving.
5. Sacramento Kings: Perry Jones III, PF (Baylor)
Some people think Jones is a Top-Five prospect, others wouldn't touch him until the latter stages of the lottery. But given the way the draft board has played out and taking into account the needs for the Kings, I think Jones goes higher than most expect.
There's no questioning his talent. His work ethic and mentality of a small forward when he very clearly has the size and game of a power forward are questionable, however.
If he decides to accept his fate as a 4, Jones and DeMarcus Cousins could form a scary frontcourt duo. If he doesn't, I think he'll be a bust.
Given the other options on the board for the Kings, however, I think he's worth the risk.
6. Portland Trail Blazers (via New Jersey): Andre Drummond, C (Connecticut)
With Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum already on the wing, I don't see them taking a player like Barnes or Jeremy Lamb here. It's too high for the point guards available as well.
I think they roll the dice on Drummond, whose upside is too much to pass on here.
7. Golden State Warriors (from Utah): Harrison Barnes, SF (North Carolina)
Love this pick for the Warriors, and have for a while. They need scoring on the wing, and that's pretty much the definition of Barnes' game. He won't create his own shot regularly, however, which is why he drops to Golden State here.
8. Toronto Raptors: Dion Waiters, SG (Syracuse)
Waiters has long been a popular "he'll rise up the board" player, and just as popular have been notions that his game evokes images of a poor man's Dwyane Wade.
I'd contest each point on a contrarian basis alone, but I tend to agree with both assertions.
Waiters is physically ready for the NBA game, with a strong, compact frame that should allow him to get to the rim and maintain his balance even as he gets banged around in the lane or in mid-air.
He's not the safest pick,—there was a reason he was the sixth man for Syracuse last year, after all—but he's got crazy upside.
9. Detroit Pistons: John Henson, PF (North Carolina)
Henson and Greg Monroe would be a beastly duo on the block. Before the red flags around Jared Sullinger, I had him going here.
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota): Damian Lillard, PG (Weber State)
Another great pick for the Hornets.
Kendall Marshall might actually be the better pairing with Eric Gordon in the backcourt, but Lillard's ability to score the rock makes him more dynamic and should soften the blow if Gordon doesn't stick around.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Kendall Marshall, PG (North Carolina)
This is probably a bit high for Marshall, but the Blazers really need a point guard. You won't find many passers in the draft who are better than this, which is a skill set that Marshall will build a very solid NBA career around.
12. Houston Rockets (via Milwaukee): Tyler Zeller, C (North Carolina)
I think the Rockets would love it if John Henson dropped to them, but the Sullinger situation will actually improve Henson's stock.
Adding Tyler Zeller to play center is a very nice consolation prize—if they keep this pick, that is.
13. Phoenix Suns: Jeremy Lamb, SG (Connecticut)
If either Waiters or Lamb are available, that should be the pick for the Suns. Either would add some backcourt scoring for the squad.
14. Milwaukee Bucks (via Houston): Meyers Leonard, C (Illinois)
He's a center, so he'll go higher than he probably should—that's how the NBA draft works.
Leonard comes into the league fairly raw, impressing with his athleticism and length by leaving much to be desired with a less-than-polished offensive repertoire. He'll need to be given time to develop, something a team like the Rockets can provide.
I think Leonard could jump up as high as No. 12 to Houston, and I don't think he'll get by a Bucks team needing to add a young center here. I would probably select him post-lottery, but upside at the center position is generally considered to be worth its weight in gold.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: Austin Rivers, SG (Duke)
With the news that Lou Williams will opt out of his contract, the Sixers will need to add a scoring presence should he leave town.
I'm higher on Rivers than most, and I think he could be the pure scorer this team desperately needs. They have enough team-first, top-notch role players to support Rivers' one-dimensional game.
16. Houston Rockets (via New York): Terrence Jones, PF (Kentucky)
Give Jones and Leonard a few years to develop their games, and I think you could be looking at an excellent frontcourt down the line.
17. Dallas Mavericks: Moe Harkless, SF (St. John's)
Harkless was fantastic for St. John's as a freshman, and his game is as polished as you'd ever expect from a kid with just one year of college experience.
This is a great pick for the Mavericks.
18. Houston Rockets (from Minnesota via Utah): Terrence Ross, SG (Washington)
This No. 18 pick sure has changed hands quite a bit.
It's hard to see a player like Ross dropping further than this. In Houston, his scoring touch in the backcourt will play well. That, or the Rockets are planning on packaging this pick to move up in the draft.
19. Orlando Magic: Tony Wroten, Jr., PG (Washington)
A pure upside selection, Wroten could actually make an impact in Orlando next season as a combo guard off the bench, but if the Magic want him to develop into a true point, they'll need to be patient.
20. Denver Nuggets: Arnett Moultrie, PF (Mississippi State)
If Moultrie replicates the double-double he averaged for Mississippi State last season, the Nuggets could end up with one of the draft's bigger steals.
21. Boston Celtics: Jared Sullinger, PF (Ohio State)
The injury red flag will drop Sullinger down the board. The Celtics will be happy to add him and find an excellent, NBA-ready power forward this far down.
22. Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers): Jeffery Taylor, SG (Vanderbilt)
Taylor has good size on the wing, plays solid defense and is an excellent jump-shooter who has improved from beyond the arc. If Ray Allen departs, Taylor could see major minutes almost immediately in Boston.
23. Atlanta Hawks: Andrew Nicholson, PF (St. Bonaventure)
Nicholson can flat-out score. If he can add some muscle and improve his rebounding on the block, he's another guy who could be a major steal down the board.
What this draft lacks in top-end star power it makes up for with great depth well past the lottery.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Los Angeles Lakers): Fab Melo, C (Syracuse)
Melo's only plus asset at this point is his shot-blocking. For teams that believe he can improve upon a raw offensive game and weaker-than-you-would-expect rebounding, he's worth a look given the shot-blocking and his sheer athleticism.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Royce White, SF (Iowa State)
He's a boom-or-bust prospect, but White's talent is worth the risk at this point for the Grizzlies.
26. Indiana Pacers: Marquis Teague, PG (Kentucky)
Give him a few years, and I think Teague could be a very solid starter at the point guard position. He'll never be a star, but I think he has more upside than he was able to display for a Kentucky team where he had to defer his shot given the star power in Lexington.
27. Miami Heat: Draymond Green, PF (Michigan State)
He's a solid rebounder, proficient scorer, excellent passer and incredibly bright player.
Ignore his size or "limited" upside—Green's a winner. And, in Miami, a perfect fit.
28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Quincy Miller, SF (Baylor)
Miller is a pure project. Given the young core already in place in OKC, they can afford to gamble on a few projects.
29. Chicago Bulls: Will Barton, SG (Memphis)
Barton just feels like a Bull. He's a solid scorer, long and athletic defender, runs the floor like a blur, finishes at the rim and is a solid rebounder for his position.
Call it a hunch, but to me he just feels like a player perfect for this Bulls team.
30. Golden State Warriors (via San Antonio): John Jenkins, SG (Vanderbilt)
Hey, why not add one more pure shooter?
With Barnes and Jenkins, the wing will go from a weakness to a strength for the Warriors very quickly.
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