Tiger Woods at US Open 2012: What Are the Chances He Wins?

After shooting a 70 in the second round of the U.S. Open, Tiger has his sights set on capturing his 15th major and closing the gap on Jack Nicklaus’ “unbreakable” record of 18. 

Woods has managed to place in the top five in five tournaments this year, including winning the Memorial Tournament in Ohio just two weeks ago.

He has played fairly poorly in the major championships this year, coming in 40th at both the Masters and The Players Championship, the "fifth major." 

While he won the tournament before the U.S. Open, indicating that he feels comfortable and is confident with his swing, he also won the Arnold Palmer Invitational right before the Masters, in which he shot par on the first day and collapsed in the later rounds, ending up at five-over.

Will the U.S. Open be a repeat, or can Tiger show that he has regained some of his mental toughness and consistency on the golf course? 

If he can continue his solid play through tomorrow and at the very least shoot par, Tiger has an excellent chance of winning the whole thing. When holding at least a share of first place after 54 holes, he has a 49-4 record.

Tiger's playing well in the third round, though, is a big variable though, as are the rounds of Jim Furyk and David Toms.

Tiger’s play has been very inconsistent this year: At times he birdies the par-threes and -fives, blasting the ball off the tee and eating up greens like the Tiger of old.

At other times he sloppily hits the ball and misses make-able puts. 

In the fourth round of the Honda Classic, in March, he eagled both par-fives and birdied every par-three except the 15th.  He charged up the standings, rising from 18th to second in one day, and nearly caught Rory McIlroy for the lead. 

But just when you think Tiger is returning to his former perfection, he plays as he did in the second round of the Masters. After a solid first round which had him in contention, on day two he bogeyed every par-three and failed to birdie any of the par-fives. 

Which Tiger will show up tomorrow for the third round at the Olympic Club? Who knows? 

What is certain is that Tiger is always in a position to win, all the more so when he is tied for first.

He has to be the favorite heading into the final two days of the U.S. Open, but it's still anyone’s tournament.