NFL Free Agency and One of Sports' Biggest Misconceptions

Living in Chicago it is nearly impossible to escape Bears talk, even with baseball season right around the corner and right now there is nothing being discussed more with the Monsters of the Midway than what the free agent signing period will bring. 

Grant it the Bears do not fit into the mold of the teams that I am about to discuss but it is my belief that far too much is invested in free agency in the NFL.  The NFL is not like the NBA where one player can have such an impact and almost single-handily turn a franchise around and it seems to be that NFL fans and some general managers do not grasp that concept.

I am not arguing that NFL free agency does not give some teams the ability to go from being a contender to putting them over the top in terms of winning their divisions and getting playoff berths, but how often is it that whoever signs the biggest name free agents actually go over the top and win a Super Bowl the following season?  Very rare.

The Atlanta Falcons are a team that presented a situation that is about as bad as it gets in the NFL a year ago.  They addressed great needs by bringing in free agent running back Michael Turner but also had an excellent draft weekend by bringing in Matt Ryan from Boston College, a move that turned out to be equally, if not more important than the Turner signing. 

Also included in the Falcons' draft a year ago were players such as Sam Baker who started the final three games of the regular season at tackle and Curtis Lofton who finished as the fourth leading tackler for Atlanta.

The Dolphins were winners of just one game in 2007, a touchdown in overtime against Baltimore was the only thing that kept them from throwing up and 0'fer.  Obviously Chad Pennington starting at quarterback was a vast improvement over Cleo Lemon but that difference was not the only thing that amounted to a ten win difference. 

Jake Long, the first overall pick in the draft gave the offensive line much needed help and helped in allowing Ronnie Brown to finally show signs to why he was a first round pick a few short years ago.  Not only was Long a contributor from the draft but Phillip Merling and Kendall Langford also contributed right away at defensive end.

Anthony Fasano also turned into a viable option for Chad Pennington to throw to and even though he was another player who was not signed as a free agent but instead traded for on draft weekend.  Overall the Dolphins did not count on free agency to turn things around, instead using the draft and trading to get things turned around.

Finally, the New York Jets finished with five more wins in 2008 than in 2007, coming within a game of reaching the postseason.  Trading for Brett Favre had much to with the turnaround as they replaced a far too oftenly injured Chad Pennington.  Of the teams who improved, the Jets used the draft the least out of anyone else with really only Dustin Keller turning into a contributor from that draft class.

However, they didn't do it through free agency either.  It is my belief that Brett Favre being traded to the Jets did more for them than any other player who switched teams (and that comes from someone who can't stand Favre's act).  If the Jets choose to not bring Favre back I truly feel they will fall back down to the bottom of the AFC East in 2009.

Because of reasons like this I really feel that many put far too much into free agency in the NFL.  Now if Ray Lewis does end up in Dallas like many project don't get me wrong, the Cowboys will be a better team as a whole in 2009. 

However, would he make Dallas as many as five wins better or would Anquan Boldin make the Bears a 13 win team?  Highly unlikely on both fronts, so don't invest too much of your time or interest on free agency this off season.