Czech Republic vs. Poland: Previewing Who Will Head into Euro 2012 Quarterfinals

With 16 matches played in Euro 2012, we have watched a fantastic tournament take hold. Today, two of the four sides that are in Group A will find themselves eliminated from the championship.

The current standings in Group A (according to ESPN FC) look like this.

Every match in Group A had something to remember it by, for better or for worse. There has been plenty of controversy, especially for the Russian fans, who have misbehaved in such a way that their nation faces a six-point penalty for its next European qualification round.

Considering that the fans have attacked stewards, rioted in Warsaw and displayed a massive banner in Warsaw's national stadium which said "This is Russia," we shouldn't be surprised that two Russian citizens are getting deported due to their behavior.

But there have been some great moments on the pitch. Robert Lewandowski's goal against Greece appeared to alleviate the pressure that Poland had been facing for years heading into the biggest sporting event in the nation's history.

We have also watched Alan Dzagoev score three goals and an impressive win by the Czech Republic, which has set up this thrilling final day.

For Poland, everything will be resolved in one night in Wrocław. Once again, Poland will face a neighbor, though the Czech Republic's fans will probably not act like Russia's did four days ago.

Poland and the Czech Republic share a common history. The two neighbors, who share a border of 658 kilometers, have both found themselves dominated by the Russians. Both nations were Communist, though that ended in the late 1980s. Both have also moved into the European Union within the last 15 years.

These bordering nations have also faced each other plenty of times. Before Czechoslovakia split in 1992, they met 21 times, with the Czechs claiming victory in 15 of those matches.

After Czechoslovakia split, there have been only seven meetings between the two, with Poland winning three matches.

There has never been a meeting between these two neighbors in a major international competition, though there have been confrontations involving both sides in much smaller tournaments.

The last time these two sides met was in a 2009 World Cup qualifier, which the Czechs won 2-0 in Prague. Seven of the starters that featured for the Czechs on that squad are also on their Euro 2012 squad, while only four Poles who participated were nominated to play for the host country for this tournament.

Both of these nations have built themselves up for what will be an interesting match. Here are their results from their final five contests.

Czech Republic

Czech Republic 2 Greece 1 (June 12 - Euro 2012)

Russia 4 Czech Republic 1 (June 8 - Euro 2012)

Czech Republic 1 Hungary 2 (June 1 - friendly)

Czech Republic 2 Israel 1 (May 26 - friendly)

Czech Republic 1 Republic of Ireland 1 (Feb. 29 - friendly)

Poland

Poland 1 Russia 1 (June 12 - Euro 2012)

Poland 1 Greece 1 (June 8 - Euro 2012)

Poland 4 Andorra 0 (June 2 - friendly)

Poland 1 Slovakia 0 (May 26 - friendly)

Poland 1 Latvia 0 (May 22 - friendly)

The Czech Republic has not been overwhelmingly strong during their recent friendlies, conceding at least one goal in every fixture. They can be fairly unpredictable considering their record in friendlies and how opposing sides have been able to figure out this nation's defense.

Much has also been made of Petr Cech, who is one of the top goalkeepers in the world and was a major cog on the Chelsea side that just secured the Champions League.

This past season, Cech saw his save percentage drop in the Premier League from 77 percent in 2011 to 72 percent. For the first time in his career, Cech conceded over a goal per match in the league for the Blues.

That troubling trend has continued for the Nároďák in this tournament. Of the six shots that have come on target toward the Czech goal, five of them have gone in.

However, the Czechs will try to make up for that save percentage with a strong match in Wroclaw. This is the third time that the Nároďák have played on this pitch during the tournament, which could be a major advantage.

To make matters more interesting, Wroclaw is near the Czech border. It is anticipated that up to 50,000 Czechs will be in the city for tonight's match.

Czech fans may have come out in large numbers, but they haven't been afraid to criticize their own side. Their booing of Milan Baros and coach Michal Bilek caused the manager to respond to their behavior.

Baros' weak play ensures that he won't make an appearance in the starting XI. The Czech Republic will feature a 4-2-3-1 system that will look like this:

Cech

Selassie Sivok Kadlec Limbersky

Plasil Hübschman

Jiracek Kolář Pilar

Pekhart 

Daniel Kolář will probably start for the Czechs considering the Achilles injury that Tomáš Rosický suffered against Greece. Rosický has said that he hopes he can play, but he did not practice yesterday. The Czechs might put Rosický in to start off the second half if the Nároďák have a poor first half.

Cech has said that he will be fit for tonight's match. Considering the circumstances, he will start.

Poland have watched their defenses weaken. After going 461 minutes without conceding a goal heading into Euro 2012, Biało-czerwoni have conceded twice on just four shots on their target.

Granted, they were without Arsenal keeper Wojciech Szczęsny against Russia due to a suspension, but he underperformed in his appearance against Greece before his red card.

So far in the tournament, Poland have registered 33 chances, while Greece and Russia combined have only registered 19 shots.

These opportunities should mean more goals, but Poland have only two tallies so far.

Despite the low goal total, expect Franciszek Smuda to retain the 4-2-3-1 style that has been used during their first two matches of Euro 2012:

Tyton

Piszczek Wojtkowiak Wasilewski Boenisch

Polanski Murawski

Blaszczykowski Obraniak Mierzejewski

Lewandowski

It was unknown whether Szczesny will get the start or Przemyslaw Tyton will start. But according to a Reuters report (via the Chicago Tribune), Smuda is more confident in Tyton, which means the PSV keeper will in all likelihood get the start.

According to Goal.com, Damien Perquis did return to training in an attempt to play in the Group A finale. But the French-born defender experienced pain in his knee, which will shut him down for the match. Perquis had played all 90 minutes against Greece and Russia.

Eugen Polanski appeared to be a question mark, but he has returned to training from his knee injury. Polanski has since said that his side will show no mercy against the Czech Republic, which only further indicates that he wants to play and will probably start.

Dariusz Dudka still has an injured stomach, but considering that Poland will be more offensively aggressive, expect the former Auxerre man to sit.

There are plenty of other things to think about going into this fixture. Most of it has to deal with the failures of Poland's side in the Euros.

In five matches in the European championships, Poland have yet to win. They are currently 0-3-2, though they have not lost yet in Euro 2012. But a draw is not an option for the home side, who must win in order to advance.

The last time that Poland lost a match was to Italy last November. Ironically, it took place in Wrocław.

Also, five of the last 10 matches by a co-host have been lost (between Euro 2008 and Euro 2012). The only two times that a co-host won was in Euro 2008, when Switzerland defeated Portugal 2-0, though the Swiss were already eliminated from the tournament.

The other example happened in Kiev five nights ago when Andriy Shevchenko of Ukraine scored a brilliant brace.

Poland squarely find themselves staring defeat in the eyes heading into their final group stage match.

Prediction

It is easy to say that Poland will lose because part of history is not on their side. However, Poland have one massive historical figure that supports their cause. The last time that Poland lost to the Czech Republic/Czechoslovakia on home soil was in 1950, where a Vlastimil Preis hat trick led the visitors to victory.

Since that win, Poland have won eight matches and drawn twice with the Czechs in matches on Polish soil.

The Czechs also could be missing Rosický. Even if the Arsenal midfielder does start, it is unlikely that he will have a great impact considering he has an Achilles injury.

During his first two matches, Rosický was a difference-maker. He completed 81 percent of his passes (76 completions on 94 attempts) and held a 68 percent completion percentage in the attacking third.

Against Greece, Rosický was especially lethal, completing 31 of his 32 passes (97 percent) before leaving due to the injury.

The Czech offense looked awful without their best playmaker in the second half against Greece, which nearly cost the Nároďák the match.

Meanwhile, Poland's players have plenty of confidence, and they should be fortunate considering their three big stars, Lukasz Piszczek, Jakub Błaszczykowski and Robert Lewandowski, are all healthy. Having the three Borussia Dortmund stars is a major boost for the host nation in a critical match such as this one.

It is inevitable that Poland will start scoring goals with the number of opportunities Biało-czerwoni get, especially against a porous defense like the one the Czechs have.

Expect Poland to come out dominating possession and notch at least one first-half goal. The Czechs will respond in the second half, but Poland will finish the match in a similar fashion to the start.

For the first time in Euro history, Poland will advance to the quarterfinals.

Czech Republic 1 Poland 2

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