NBA Draft 2012: 5 Draft Prospects Whose Stock Is Way Too High

"Bust" is the one word that strikes fear into the heart of every NBA general manager. The one word that not only signifies failure for an individual player, but for the general manager, team and owner who drafted him.

Each and every year when the NBA Draft is looming, there are a handful of players that will be over-rated and "over-drafted." These players will become "busts" and many will not only be shipped out of town before their rookie contract expires, the general managers who drafted them will be out of a job just as fast.

Names that ring a bell of doom in every NBA fans ears such as Sam Bowie, Greg Oden, Darko Milicic, Luke Jackson, Michael Beasley, Wesley Johnson and hundreds more will take a further step back into the realm of obscurity this year when a handful of new draftees are added to the list.

In the following five slides, I will give you my opinion of the five players in this year's draft class who are being over-rated and will most likely be "over-drafted" or drafted much too early.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is perhaps the closest thing to a perfect basketball player in this draft class, at least in the area of intangibles. Unfortunately for MKG skill level also plays an important role in whether a collegiate athlete will become a future NBA superstar, All-Star, role player or mere bench warmer.

Kidd-Gilchrist has all the desire, determination, will to win, toughness and leadership qualities one could ask for in an NCAA champion, let alone one who just happens to be the youngest player in this year’s draft. However, MKG also has a well below average jump shot, below average handle (dribbling skills), and average passing ability. To his credit he may already be the best wing defender in this draft with the potential to be a true lock down defender at the next level.

None of the talking heads seem to be throwing out the “boom or bust” phrase in relation to Kidd-Gilchrist, choosing instead to use such terminology when discussing the likes of University of Connecticut center and man-child Andre Drummond and Baylor University’s freakishly athletic wing, Perry Jones III. I certainly agree that both Drummond and PJIII are boom or bust candidates but I also feel that term could apply to MKG as well.

I have read lottery prospect comparison articles that state MKG could become a superstar, better than a sure fire Hall of Famer like Paul Pierce at best, and, at worse, Gerald Wallace. Such statements baffle me!

Gerald Wallace was named Naismith Prep Player of the Year as a high school senior, led the NBA in steals, made the NBA All-Defensive First team and was even named an All-Star in 2010, and he is the absolute worst player Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could become? If this were true, Kidd-Gilchrist should not only be drafted ahead of Anthony Davis, but teams with bona-fide older superstars such as the Grizzlies with Rudy Gay, the Hawks with Josh Smith, and others should be working the phones like crazy trying to trade away their older stars for this young stud who will, at worst, be the equivalent of Gerald Wallace. Nonsense!

I personally believe the Kidd-Gilchrist will be a very good NBA player and is the sort of player that any championship contender would love to have on their roster. I believe he will become an All-NBA defender as well. However, whether he ever truly becomes an All-Star, let alone a superstar, will depend on how much work he puts into his offensive game and how he develops as a shooter, ball handler and passer.

Personally, I believe that Kidd-Gilchrist could indeed become better than Paul Pierce has ever been. I can certainly see MKG as a dynamic slasher and finisher in the mold of a stronger Gerald Wallace on the offensive end and as a Scottie Pippen type of elite-level defender on the defensive side of the ball, with all the intangibles of a player like Derek Fisher thrown in the mix. Such a combination would indeed make for a magnificent all-around basketball player.

I would also not be shocked however to see MKG continue to struggle with his shooting, ball-handling and passing and turn out to be little more than a smaller version of Robert Horry, albeit with more toughness and nowhere near as nice a jump-shot. Such a player would still be valuable and one that could be superstar or even an All-Star.

Jared Sullinger

Jared Sullinger is being pegged by many as a top six pick in the NBA draft as well as a player that could start a center. To such claims, I scream, "stop the madness!"

Jared Sullinger is a Carlos Boozer clone. Big Sully, as he is affectionately known, is a wide bruiser who plays below the rim, is technically sound, and does many things well but nothing great.

I certainly can see Sullinger having a long and relatively productive career in the NBA, much like Carlos Boozer has had. However, I do not see a perennial all-star when I look at Sullinger, which is what I believe a team should receive from a top six draft pick.

Carlos Boozer and Jared Sullinger each played two years of college ball and had similar statistics and experiences.

Sullinger averaged 22.3 points, 12.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.3 turnovers per 40 minutes, while shooting .530 from the floor and .733 from the free throw line and leading the Buckeyes to one NCAA Final Four appearance.

Boozer averaged 21.3 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.3 blocks and 2.3 turnovers per 40 minutes, while shooting .609 from the floor and .731 from the free throw line and winning one NCAA Championship with Duke.

When one simply looks at the stats it’s easy to see that Boozer was a far superior "basket-maker," a better defender and better passer. However, stats don’t tell the full story. The real truth is that Boozer was the more athletic payer, had the better motor and was more technically sound than Sullinger.

Boozer was the thirty-fourth player selected in the 2002 draft. Sullinger is projected to be a top six pick. Something is incredibly wrong with this picture!

Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes is one of the best pure scorers in this draft—or so the conventional wisdom goes.

Barnes is even said to be a lock to be drafted by the Cleveland Cavaliers with the number four pick in the draft if he even lasts that long, according to CBS Sports article.

Honestly, I feel sorry for Cavaliers fans everywhere if this report is true.

Don’t get me wrong, Barnes is a very nice player. He reminds me of Luol Deng, minus the defensive aptitude. However, would anyone draft Luol Deng in the top six if he couldn’t play defense? I don’t think so.

Bradley Beal has Joe Dumars written all over him and would be a great fit for the Cavaliers. Andre Drummond has Dwight Howard type potential. Perry Jones has legitimate superstar potential. Harrison Barnes has Luol Deng potential and that’s only if he dedicates himself to playing defense at a high level.

In fact, I’m not even sure that Barnes is a top two small forward in this draft class. I personally like Terrence Ross as a player much more than Barnes. Statistically speaking, Ross is the superior prospect as can be shown by the tables below:

Player's Per-40 Stats	Points	Rebounds	Assists	Steals	Blocks
Ross	21.1	8.2	1.8	1.7	1.2
Barnes	23.4	7.1	1.5	1.5	.4

Player's Shooting Averages	FG%	2P%	3P%	FT%
Ross	45.7	51.8	37.1	76.6
Barnes	44.0	46.9	35.8	72.3

However, what stands out when you watch the two play is that Ross enjoys playing defense, has lock-down capability and can score without being a mere “volume shooter.”

Barnes is apparently a lock to be drafted in the top four. Ross on the other hand may not be drafted until the sixteenth selection or so. Such a fact shocks me.

Kendall Marshall

Kendall Marshall is being mentioned as a top eight selection in this year’s draft thanks to news that the Raptors, who hold the number eight pick, brought him in for a workout.

Marshall is a nice, pass-first point guard and true floor general, but to think he is worth a lottery selection at all, let alone the eighth pick in the draft is pure idiocy.

The fact of the matter is that there are five starting point guards in the NBA that are truly “pass-first” players: Rajon Rondo, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Ricky Rubio and Jose Calderon.

Rajon Rondo is also a magnificent defender and rebounder and a player that could easily average 20 points per game with his dynamic slashing ability if he wanted to.

Jason Kidd has always been known as one of the best rebounding point guards in NBA history and a great defender who also developed into a fantastic three point shooter.  

Steve Nash perhaps couldn’t defend his own grandmother or rebound  his own missed breakaway layup attempt, but he is without a doubt one of the best marksmen in NBA history, a magnificent shooter who younger players can emulate.

Ricky Rubio has only played one partial season in the NBA but has already proven himself to be a very solid rebounder as well as an outstanding defender.

Kendall Marshall is not merely a “pass-first” point guard, he could be called a “pass-only” point guard!

Marshall is not a great shooter and is in fact a poor rebounder and abysmal defender. Simply put, the only thing he has in common with the aforementioned five “pass-first point guards” is just that, passing ability. That is not enough to justify drafting Marshall in the top eight or even top 14 selections.

Austin Rivers

Austin Rivers has reportedly received a promise from a lottery team that they will draft him.

Whatever team made that promise may have made an enormous mistake!

Austin Rivers is the basketball reincarnation of another freshman sensation combo guard that was drafted with the number 11 pick in the 2008 NBA draft. His name is Jerryd Bayless. Six picks after Bayless was selected, All-Star center Roy Hibbert was drafted. Other notable players that were draft at least 7 picks lower than Bayless were Serge Ibaka, JaVale McGee, Nicolas Batum and Nikola Pekovic.

Any team that drafts Rivers in the lottery could greatly regret passing up on players such as Terrence Ross, Perry Jones, Meyers Leonard, Tyler Zeller and Tony Wroten.

Rivers had a very solid freshman season at Duke where he averaged 15.5 points and 2.1 assists per game while shooting 47.7 percent on two point field goals, 36.5 percent on three pointers and an abysmal 65.8 percent from the charity stripe. Those are solid numbers.

Jerryd Bayless however bested every single one of Rivers above noted averages in his freshman season at the University of Arizona when he averaged 19.7 points and 4.0 assists per game while shooting 48.9 percent on two point field goals, 40.7 percent on three pointers and 83.9 percent from the charity stripe.

I personally would not be shocked to see Austin Rivers continue to mature as a player and turn into a mix of Joe Dumars and Allen Iverson. However, I also would not be the least bit surprised to see his career mirror that of Jerryd Bayless. Such a career is not worth a lottery selection, period.