2012 NBA Draft: High-Upside Gambles Teams Must Make in the 1st Round

There are two primary routes teams can take in NBA drafts. They can go the safer route and pick the safer prospect with the higher floor and the lower ceiling, or they can gamble and attempt to turn the high-upside pick into a stud while running the risk of drafting a complete bust. 

Prospects like Anthony Davis with high floors and high ceilings are incredibly rare. 

Every year, there are players with enough potential to sit there on the draft boards, just daring general managers to roll the dice and call out their names on draft day. 

For the 2012 NBA draft, these are the four high-upside gambles that teams should make in the first round. 

Jeremy Lamb

Despite all the questions about his leadership abilities—primarily those that stemmed from his inability to stop the inevitable downfall of the reigning champions in college basketball—Jeremy Lamb is simply too good on offense to pass up. 

Lamb has the innate ability to create offense for himself, especially with his near-flawless pull-up jumper off the drive. His ridiculous wingspan, breathtaking athleticism and defensive potential should be leaving scouts with their jaws dropped. 

However, as is often the case with talented youngsters, Lamb's motor is a bit of a question mark. And by "a bit of," I mean that it's seriously scaring a lot of teams and evaluators of talent. 

As you'll come to realize by the end of this article, I'd much rather have proven talent with high upside and a questionable motor than a great motor with a lack of upside and less proven talent. 

Terrence Jones

When Terrence Jones is in the zone, he's one of the best basketball prospects you can find. There's a reason that he was once touted as a top pick, even if his stock has dropped a bit as a result of a lackluster sophomore season and the addition of new talents to the draft pool.

The problem is that he's not always in that special zone, and his talents weren't on display to their full extent thanks to the presence of Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Doron Lamb, Marquis Teague and Darius Miller in Lexington.

Jones has too much athleticism for his own good (I mean that as a compliment), and his court vision is normally found among players who line up at point guard when the starting five are announced for each team in a game.

Between those two pluses and his ferocity on the less-glamourous defensive end of the court, he's a player for whom the reward will be well worth the risk.  

Austin Rivers

Austin Rivers may have been a little bit disappointing as a college basketball player, with the exception of a certain shot against an archrival, but his game has always been better suited for the next level, where he'll be able to thrive as an isolation scorer and a ball-handler in pick-and-roll situations. 

In fact, DraftExpress' Matt Kamalsy writes: 

"

According to Synergy Sports Technology, Rivers's total number of pick and rolls and isolations used this season (356 over 34 games) ranks in the top-5 in the NCAA. Perhaps the only player on Duke's roster dynamic enough to consistently distort defenses with his dribble penetration and generate his own shot in a pinch, Rivers may not have been his team's primary ball-handler, but he was the creative force behind his team's offense all year long, for better or worse.

"

When Rivers is truly feeling it, the basketball appears to be a yo-yo that's almost guaranteed to return to its owner's hand as he splits defenders, goes around them and gets into the lane. It's once he's in that lane that he has problems.

If Rivers can learn when to call his own number and when to kick the ball out to the right teammate, he'll be successful.

That's a gamble I'd be willing to take.  

Perry Jones III

This young forward for Baylor Bears displayed more frightening highs and lows than any other player in all of college basketball.

When Perry Jones III was on his game, he could look like the best player in the country and a player who should be challenging Anthony Davis for the No. 1 slot in the draft. However, there were times when it seemed as though PJ3 didn't even realize he was on the court. 

Jones is one of the best athletes in a tantalizingly athletic class and he may one day be able to challenge Dwight Howard in a contest for the best standing vertical reach in The Association. Plus, his versatility will allow him to line up at small forward and become a Kevin Durant-esque mismatch, or he could play center in an undersized lineup. 

If your team's coach is known as a master motivator, you better hope he picks Jones, given the opportunity. It's not a lock that Robert Griffin III is the best player with three I's after his name from Baylor this year.