US Open Golf 2012: Breaking Down the Biggest Storylines

The biggest storyline at the 2012 US Open is the same as it is at every major golf event, in a word: Tiger. Woods is again the featured attraction after winning the Memorial, and the lead-up to the US Open is much like the lead-up to the Masters.

Woods is coming off a win at a legend's tournament. Prior to the Masters, he had won the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The win had everyone calling Woods the favorite. It proved to be premature as Woods produced a disappointing 40th-place finish at Augusta.

Will things be different for Tiger at the Olympic Club in San Francisco? 

That is but one of the questions the golf world has heading into the US Open. Among other burning questions: Can Bubba Watson win a second consecutive major?

Can Rory McIlroy rebound from his dreaded slump? Will Rickie Fowler build on the momentum he began at the The Players Championship?

The tournament begins Thursday, June 14. 

Here are my answers to those questions.

Pretty Rickie Fowler is Not Quite Ready to Win

Fowler had strung together four blistering performances before flaming out at the Memorial on June 3. In the previous four events, Fowler didn't shoot worse than five-under in any tournament.

At the Memorial he was as bad as he had been good in the preceding outings. He finished a horrid seven-over par, good for a tie for 52nd place on the final leaderboard.

It is this inconsistency that leads me to believe Fowler won't win the US Open. I think he'll have a decent showing, but nothing higher than a 15th-place finish.

Rory Will Make the Cut, But Not the Top 10

McIlroy snapped his streak of missing two straight cuts with a solid performance at the FedEx St.Jude Classic. McIlory finished tied for seventh, but only three strokes behind the winner Dustin Johnson.

It seems McIlroy has righted the ship, but I wouldn't expect him to be in the hunt on Day 4. He'll play well, but not well enough to win. He is the defending champion, but not my personal favorite this year.

Bubba Will Come Back Down to Earth

It's been all downhill since Watson won the Masters in April. He had an 18th-place finish at the Zurich Classic in late April, and he missed the cut at the Memorial.

Nothing can take the memory of this amazing shot from us:

But Watson's gambler style won't serve him well at the US Open. Last year he was an abysmal nine-over at the US Open, good for a tie for 63rd place. It's a different course, but the result will only be moderately better.

Watson will make the cut, but he won't be anywhere near contention.

Tiger Woods is Back, But He Still Won't Win the US Open

Tiger played great at the Memorial, and I don't see him falling as flat at the US Open as he did at the Masters, but I don't think he'll win. He's still building his overall consistency, and that may take a couple more outings.

We may have to wait for more classic US Open moments like these from Tiger:

I look for him to be within sniffing distance of the contenders on the final day, but he'll likely finish between fourth and sixth.

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