Belmont Stakes 2012 Results: Bob Baffert Needs a New Jockey

Bob Baffert trains Bodemeister, who served as the bridesmaid to I'll Have Another in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. He opted to change horses headed into the 2012 Belmont Stakes, but the key to victory was actually a change in jockeys.

Headed into each race the trainer and jockey have a game plan suited to the horse's strengths and the rest of the field. It is expected that Mike Smith saddled up to ride the race according to Baffert's instruction.

However, there are elements of every race that leave the decision making in the hands of the jockey. This is where Smith seemed to cost Baffert a win in each race.

In the Kentucky Derby Smith pushed Bodemeister quite hard, keeping a pace that seemed much faster than ideal. He kept a solid lead on Trinniberg who was quite willing to push Bodemeister down the backstretch. However, Trinniberg had never run longer than seven furlongs and fell completely off the pace at the turn and finished 31 lengths behind Bodemeister.

Keeping ahead of the pace of a 44/1 sprinter that had no real shot at going the full mile and one-quarter left Bodemeister spent.

The horse valiantly held on to place, but didn't have the stamina to hold off I'll Have Another.

The issue with the trip is Smith had the rail and didn't need to maintain a fast a pace to keep it. Even if Trinniberg gained a small lead, Bodemeister would have been able to respond and hold off the field.

At the Preakness Smith seemed eager to learn from his mistake. The pace was a lot more realistic, but one could argue it was simply too slow. It didn't allow Bodemeister to open up as large a lead on I'll Have Another as he could have. 

Bodemeister was barely overtaken at the wire, but Baffert had to wonder if he would have had two victories had the pace of the two races been averaged out.

The length of the Belmont Stakes left Baffert feeling Paynter would be a better fit to capture the final leg of the Triple Crown.

The race showed Baffert likely made the correct choice relative to which horse to race. The problem is he didn't follow the lead of Union Rags trainer Michael Matz and change his jockey.

The pace of this race would clearly favor whatever speed Baffert instructed Smith to carry. The only potential horse that could force a faster pace was My Adonis, but he started well outside and didn't figure to be a factor going to the rail.

Watching My Adonis in the parade to post made it even more clear he wouldn't push Paynter. While most hoses almost seem to prance in front of the crowd, he seemed to trudge with heavy feet. He had the look of a highly trained athlete that knew he was outclassed.

Smith kept Paynter just ahead of the field in a pace that again seemed too slow. Still, the horse was ready to close out the race and was nestled against the rail headed into the final turn.

Union rags was behind Paynter and had no room to move outside. The race seemed settled and Baffert was going to be the mastermind for his horse trading.

But Smith allowed Paynter to drift off the rail coming down the stretch. Union Rags, who had been squeezed out at the Preakness Stakes suddenly had an opening.

Oddly enough, John Velazquez was brought in to ride Union Rags in the Belmont Stakes because Matz was not happy with Union Rags getting boxed out in earlier races.

“We felt we had to make a change,” Matz told the Daily Racing Form. “What happened before, in the last two races, it can happen to any one of them. He doesn’t look like he’s difficult to ride. He does have a big, long stride, and you need to let him use that stride.”

Matz' jockey change was much less of a deciding a factor as Baffert's choice to stick with Smith. Had Paynter been kept at the rail Union Rags wouldn't have been able to overtake him for the win.

Baffert had an opportunity to win all three legs of the Triple Crown. His jockey may have cost him the first two, but not saddling a new rider for the Belmont Stakes led to the loss in New York.