A Look Ahead at the NFL Award Winners in 2012
Training camp hasn't even started, but it's never too early to start talking about potential award winners. This year will begin a shift to a new crop of NFL stars. We're going to see plenty of first-time award winners, as guys like Tom Brady step aside.
The last slide is my personal award for players who don't get enough credit. These are offensive linemen or defenders who don't have an opportunity to pad their stats.
Offensive Player of the Year
1 of 10Projected Winner: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
As a rookie, Newton totaled an impressive 35 touchdowns and 4,757 yards. This was accomplished while he was learning to adjust to the NFL game.
Because of his wide-ranging abilities, Newton won't suffer from a sophomore slump. Even if he's having a rough day throwing the ball, he can still make an impact with his running ability. It's also important to note that the Carolina Panthers will have an improved defense that should provide Newton with more possessions.
Don't be surprised if Newton approaches the 50-touchdown mark.
Second Place: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
The only thing that can keep Stafford from success is health. However, he proved the last two seasons that his previous injuries might have been just bad luck. Stafford can't match Newton's ability as a rusher, but he is capable of equaling Newton's touchdown total with just his arm.
I expect the Detroit Lions defense to continue improving and forcing turnovers. So the same scenario applies: more possessions for Stafford means more production.
Stafford's surrounding weapons also help him. Playmakers like Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and Titus Young are capable of contributing plenty of yards after the catch.
Third Place: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers is an excellent quarterback who is capable of putting up huge numbers. His surrounding cast is as dangerous as any in the NFL. However, there are still question marks on the defensive side of the football. The more time dominated by the opposing offense, the less opportunity for Rodgers to pad his stat line.
There are also the times when he seems to have an off game or loses concentration. For example, last year Rodgers struggled against the Kansas City Chiefs. In that game, he completed less than 50 percent of his passes and only threw one touchdown.
Fourth Place: Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Brady and the Patriots are going through another change on the offensive staff. Bill O'Brien moved on to Penn State, and Josh McDaniels was brought back to run the offense. While McDaniels is a talented offensive coordinator, he hasn't shown a willingness to take advantage of talented tight ends. This year will be an adjustment for both Brady and McDaniels.
This is another team that has issues on defense. Coupled with a questionable running game, that will limit the Patriots' time of possession. Brady may end up with more passing attempts, but that doesn't always equate to better stats.
Fifth Place: Brandon Marshall, Chicago Bears
Marshall is the wild card in this race. He has always produced and now is in a great situation with the Chicago Bears. Marshall is back with Jay Cutler, with whom he registered 206 catches, 2,590 yards and 13 touchdowns in two seasons.
This familiarity, along with the motivation of succeeding with a new team and possibly a reduced rushing attack, means big things for Marshall. The holdout of Matt Forte and the assets surrendered to acquire Marshall are what lead me to believe we might see fewer rushing attempts from the Bears.
Defensive Player of the Year
2 of 10Projected Winner: Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants
Pierre-Paul's quickness and athleticism are quickly making him one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL. He continues to develop, but look for next year to be a truly dominant season. A fully healthy New York Giants defense will help keep opposing offenses from double-teaming Pierre-Paul.
However, even double-teams will struggle to shut down Pierre-Paul's ferocious pass rush. Look for him to lead the NFL in sacks next year and even approach the single-season mark of 22.5 held by Michael Strahan.
Second Place: Aldon Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Aldon Smith is as feared a pass-rusher as Pierre-Paul. His quick adjustment to outside linebacker allowed him to record 14 sacks as a rookie. Smith was able to hit this mark despite only playing a part-time role at the beginning of the season.
The 49ers will continue to feature Smith as their main pass-rushing force.
Third Place: NaVorro Bowman, San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Willis gets all the media attention, but it was NaVorro Bowman who led the team in tackles last season. He quietly registered 111 solo tackles, which ranked second in the NFL behind only D'Qwell Jackson.
Bowman is very underrated, and he should continue to put up these type of numbers. I actually expect to see him used more in blitz packages, which will increase his sack total. That he was the leading tackler on such a dominant defense helped him make this list.
Fourth Place: Malcolm Jenkins, New Orleans Saints
This one is more of a hunch pick, but Jenkins is primed to have a breakout season. He's been playing at a high level over the past several seasons, but that hasn't shown up in the stat book.
The Saints and Steve Spagnuolo need a leader on defense, and Jenkins is a perfect candidate. Look for him to feature in blitz packages and play in the box more. He has the potential to top the 100-tackle mark.
Fifth Place: Darrelle Revis, New York Jets
Despite some contract issues, Revis appears ready to continue his smothering defense. He learned his lesson from the last holdout. Even if he misses practice time, I expect him to show up in shape.
If the Jets are going to make a run at the Super Bowl, they'll need Revis to play at an All-Pro level.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
3 of 10Projected Winner: Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
Griffin's talent and the Washington Redskins' offensive weapons will be the keys to him winning the Rookie of the Year award. His ability to deliver an accurate deep ball should help him put up excellent numbers. Look for the Redskins to feature a lot of plays in which Griffin throws the ball downfield to someone like Pierre Garcon.
It's also important to point out that Griffin is being coached by Mike and Kyle Shanahan. Both do a good job developing a game plan for mobile quarterbacks. That Griffin has already been named the starter will ensure he gets the reps needed to make an early impact.
Second Place: Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns
The Browns offense doesn't have a lot of weapons, and they figure to be breaking in a new quarterback in Brandon Weeden. This means that Richardson will get a heavy workload and an opportunity to put up impressive numbers.
Cleveland's offensive line has the pieces in place to ensure Richardson gets some running room. The only thing that will limit his production is the lack of other offensive threats. Opposing teams will key on shutting him down.
Third Place: Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Martin is going to be a major factor in the Tampa Bay offense. He's multi-talented, capable of gaining yards between the tackle and breaking off long runs. Greg Schiano is going to ensure the running game is a major part of the game plan.
The Buccaneers offensive line might be one of the best units in the NFL, especially after the addition of Carl Nicks. Martin is absolutely talented enough to be a surprise winner.
Fourth Place: Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
Luck is going to have a really good rookie season, but most of his success won't be visible in the stat book. He's going to make most of his impact as a leader and by making those around him better. I expect the Colts to have a better-than-expected season, mainly thanks to the play of Luck.
Fifth Place: Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts
Fleener and Luck's relationship will ensure that Fleener has early success. Chuck Pagano's discussion about using two tight ends will also allow Fleener to have an impact (via Pro Football Talk).
Defensive Rookie of the Year
4 of 10Projected Winner: Mark Barron, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Barron is going to line up at strong safety, where he will have an opportunity to make a ton of plays. I expect him to make a legitimate push for a 100-tackle season. The Buccaneers selected Barron to be a leader on defense and make impact plays.
Look for Barron to move around the field and be in position to make those plays.
Second Place: Dont'a Hightower, New England Patriots
Dont'a Hightower will likely see most of his time in the middle of the New England defense, but he's versatile enough to play multiple roles. Bill Belichick knows how to make good use of talented players. Look for him to use Hightower in many blitz packages, and even possibly at defensive end.
Hightower's ability to get after the quarterback is underrated. He has a good burst and a wide range of pass-rush moves.
Third Place: Lavonte David, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lavonte David's quickness and tenacity are going to allow him to make a major impact. He'll initially push for the team lead in tackles, while also making impact plays. This guy is going to be one of the more explosive rookies in the league.
Fourth Place: Fletcher Cox, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles selected Cox to beef up the defensive line. He'll use his quickness and nonstop motor to make plays in the backfield. Philadelphia will move him all along the defensive line in order to create matchup problems.
Having teammates like Trent Cole and Jason Babin will help Cox avoid double-teams.
Fifth Place: Courtney Upshaw, Baltimore Ravens
Courtney Upshaw is an NFL-ready rookie who'll make a major impact for the Ravens. The injury to Terrell Suggs means Upshaw will get an early opportunity to play. Baltimore will use him to stuff the run and rush the passer.
Upshaw is going to have an impressive stat line. He will have a lot of tackles and multiple sacks.
Comeback Player of the Year
5 of 10Projected Winner: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
This award is one of the easier ones to project. There's little doubt in my mind that Manning will get back to form. The Denver Broncos offense will look much different with the addition of Manning. They'll still look to run the football, but expect to see a ton of passing attempts by Manning.
Second Place: Jon Beason, Carolina Panthers
Jon Beason is a tackling machine and will quickly pick up where he left off before the injury. The Carolina defense has a chance to significantly improve, mainly thanks to the return of Beason. Drafting Luke Kuechly will help draw some attention away from Beason and let him attack.
Third Place: Gerald McCoy, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
McCoy is extremely talented, but has yet to live up to that talent level. His career has been plagued by injuries and limited production. However, this season could finally be the year he makes a major impact.
Greg Schiano is a demanding coach and will push McCoy to succeed. Look for the Buccaneers to ensure that he gets an opportunity to attack upfield.
Fourth Place: Mario Williams, Buffalo Bills
There's going to be a ton of pressure on Williams to have a successful first season in Buffalo. His big-money contract means that he's expected to produce a high number of sacks. Pressure isn't new to Williams; he had his share after being the first overall pick.
The Bills defensive line has other talented players who will help keep double-teams away from Williams.
Fifth Place: Kenny Britt, Tennessee Titans
Prior to his injury, Britt was having an excellent season, demonstrating why he could be a major playmaker. This year, he'll have other weapons to help draw coverage away from his side of the field. The addition of Kendall Wright and the possibility of Jake Locker starting at quarterback will play a major role in Britt's success.
Coach of the Year
6 of 10Projected Winner: Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles
Reid was on a bit of a hot seat this offseason, but this is a team primed to have a major turnaround. The team's success depends on the health of Michael Vick, but this year's team is more prepared to handle a Vick injury.
Improvement on defense is what will allow this team to make a return to the playoffs.
Second Place: Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers
The surprising success of last season will make it tough for Harbaugh to impress. Expectations are high for the 49ers. Only matching last year's success will keep him in the running for Coach of the Year.
Luckily, this 49ers team is talented enough to match last year's win total. The added weapons on offense should make for a more explosive attack.
Third Place: Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears
The addition of Brandon Marshall and replacing Mike Martz have raised expectations for the Bears. Jay Cutler finally has a big-time weapon, making it possible for the offense to match the strong play on defense.
Smith does a good job keeping his team playing hard. His ability to keep the defensive unit playing at a high level is very impressive.
Fourth Place: Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills
Prior to a late-season collapse, the Bills were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL. Gailey did a great job getting the most out of the limited talent on the roster. His work with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is what helped this team start to turn it around.
That success played a major role in the Bills' decision to make a significant moves in free agency. This team is primed to have a successful season.
Fifth Place: Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals
Last season's success wasn't a one-time thing. This Bengals team is talented and well-coached. Lewis' ability to keep his coordinators in place will play a major role in this franchise's continued success.
Executive of the Year
7 of 10Projected Winner: Mark Dominik, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers made headlines with several big-time free-agent additions, but those weren't the only improvements made by Mark Dominik. His ability to pry Greg Schiano away from Rutgers might be the key to this team's success.
This young roster needed a tough head coach who demands perfection. Adding a new coach won't solve all the team's problems, so Dominik used the draft to continue improving the roster. Tampa Bay's offseason produced Schiano, Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks, Mark Barron, Doug Martin and Lavonte David.
Second Place: Bruce Allen, Washington Redskins
The Redskins needed to find a long-term answer at quarterback, so Allen made a move to land Robert Griffin III. Adding Griffin gives the Redskins a talented player who'll help them win games and excite the fanbase.
Third Place: Buddy Nix, Buffalo Bills
Nix got a major win when he was able to land Mario Williams via free agency. The Bills don't routinely land high-profile free agents. Nix then continued his strong offseason by selecting several talented players in the draft.
Cornerback Stephon Gilmore is going to make an immediate impact and help really improve the defense. However, adding Cordy Glenn in the second round might be a bigger move. He's going to fill a major hole at left tackle.
Fourth Place: John Elway, Denver Broncos
Elway was not only able to land Peyton Manning, but also get rid of Tim Tebow. There's no overlooking the success Tebow had, but deep down Elway knew he wasn't the long-term answer at quarterback.
The future of this franchise got a lot brighter because of Elway's moves. A healthy Manning makes the Broncos immediate Super Bowl contenders.
Fifth Place: A.J. Smith, San Diego Chargers
Losing Vincent Jackson will hurt, but Smith reloaded the talent for the San Diego Chargers. He made several low-profile but high-impact moves. Guys like Jarret Johnson and Robert Meachem will make their presences felt.
The moves made in the draft will also pay quick dividends. Melvin Ingram and Kendall Reyes have a great chance to be the future of this defense.
MVP Award
8 of 10Projected Winner: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Last year was a great one for Stafford and the Lions. However, this could be the year Stafford puts his name in the MVP discussion. Detroit has plenty of weapons and possibly an improved running attack.
Stafford will produce, and it's possible he will lead his team to a high win total. Winning the division and matching his production from last season would put him in the driver's seat for this award.
Second Place: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Newton scored 35 touchdowns last season as a rookie. He accomplished this while adjusting to a new offense. With a full offseason under his belt, there's no telling the type of production we'll see from him this fall.
His ability to make plays with his legs gives him an advantage over the rest of the competition. The Panthers will continue to use Newton's legs on the goal line.
Third Place: Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants
Defensive players don't typically get a lot of love in the MVP race. However, Pierre-Paul has the talent to make a major impact this season. He's an elite pass-rusher, capable of surpassing the 20-sack mark.
Fourth Place: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers and the Packers offense will continue to put up impressive numbers. However, I have some concerns about the talent along the offensive line and the lack of a running game. Both of these deficiencies could cause Rodgers to struggle.
He'll have another good season, but might not be able to keep pace with some of the league's other top quarterbacks.
Fifth Place: Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Brady is another player who continually puts up impressive numbers, but a shake-up of the offensive coaching staff could cause an issue. Bill O'Brien's departure leaves the offense in the hands of Josh McDaniels. He is a talented play-caller, but doesn't typically utilize the tight end position as much as O'Brien did.
This means there could be a bit of an adjustment period for Brady and the Patriots offense.
Super Bowl MVP
9 of 10Projecting the possible Super Bowl MVP is a tricky task. It means that you must look at which teams have a chance to make the Super Bowl before deciding which player will stand out. I'm expecting a ton of feedback on this slide, but keep in mind this is a very early prediction.
Projected Winner: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
The Packers added talent to the defense, their Achilles' heel last year. An improved defense and a high-powered offense make the Packers one of the favorites to make it to the big game. Green Bay's lack of a running game means that any Super Bowl victory will be because of Rodgers.
Second Place: Arian Foster, Houston Texans
An injury to Matt Schaub might have been what kept the Texans from making the Super Bowl last season. However, they still had plenty of success thanks to the stellar play of Foster. He is a real difference-maker, capable of leading this team to a memorable season.
Third Place: Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers
Davis continues to improve, and his success in last year's playoffs shows he can perform in pressure situations. The 49ers' offseason additions of Randy Moss, Mario Manningham and A.J. Jenkins should help draw coverage away from Davis.
Fourth Place: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
Gronkowski is a superstar and showed that he has the ability to put up major stats. He's almost impossible to cover in one-on-one situations, which will help him continue his production.
As a team, the first thing to notice about the Patriots is the improvement they made on defense. Players like Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower will help that unit improve and increase the team's chances of making it to the Super Bowl.
Fifth Place: Eli Manning, New York Giants
It's tough to rule out the Giants. Manning and this team just know how to win when it counts the most. Any success the Giants have this upcoming season will be because of the continued development of Manning.
Dove's Unsung Hero Award
10 of 10Projected Winner: Tyron Smith, Dallas Cowboys
In order for the Cowboys to have a successful season, they need Tony Romo to remain healthy and play at a very high level. Romo's health and production are closely linked to the play of Smith. The Cowboys shifted Smith to left tackle and are now asking him to protect Romo's blind side.
Smith is an excellent offensive tackle and will show this season that he's one of the NFL's most talented players.
Second Place: Justin Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Justin Smith is the motor for the dominant 49ers defense. He leads by example and does a good job of inspiring his teammates. He'll often do the dirty jobs that allow his teammates to make an impact.
Third Place: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati Bengals
Green-Ellis won't be confused as one of the most talented running backs in the league, but what he does offer helps teams win games. He's a solid contributor who's always in the right position and rarely makes mistakes. This is the type of player who is needed for a young team to take the next step.
Fourth Place: Carl Nicks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers offense is going to look very different this season. Adding the likes of Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin will bring improvements, but Nicks will also have a big impact. The massive offensive lineman will create running lanes for Martin. He'll also help protect Josh Freeman long enough to utilize Jackson's ability to stretch the field.
Fifth Place: J.J. Watt, Houston Texans
Watt showed last season that he can make an impact in many ways. He's tough against the run and athletic enough to generate pressure on the quarterback. However, it's the outside linebackers who get most of the attention in a 3-4 defense. But that should not diminish the impact Watt has on the success of the Texans defense.
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