Belmont Stakes 2012: Top Contenders That Will Have to Overcome Bad Slotting

While I’ll Have Another will be trying to become the first horse to win the Triple Crown since 1978 this Saturday’s Belmont Stakes, the other 11 horses and jockeys will try to prevent him from doing that. I’ll Have Another is the race favorite but has a questionable post position at Post 11.

Does slotting even matter in horse racing? Yes, it does.

Not every post position is lined up with another, giving some horses an advantage over others. If you are closer to the finish line at the start, that would give you a big advantage, in theory. Of course it does not always work like this since sometimes is disadvantageous to be running so close to the rail. If you think about it, it is not easy being sandwiched between the rail and another horse at the start of the race.

That being said, the most advantageous slots would be closer to the middle than on the outsides. With the post positions announced for Saturday’s highly anticipated race, let’s look at which contenders will have to overcome bad slotting.

Union Rags, Post 3

Given 6-1 odds to win the Belmont Stakes, Union Rags is the third-most favorable horse behind Dullahan and I’ll Have Another. Union Rags finished seventh at the Kentucky Derby and has not won since late February at the Fountain of Youth.

Five horses slotted at the third post have come out on top of the Belmont Stakes since 1970, including last year’s winner, Ruler on Ice. Obviously, winning from the third post is definitely possible but I still think that being so close to the rail will not help Union Rags.

Can he still win the race? Of course. He is a very fast horse who can leg his way to victory, but the third post is not exactly favorable.

My Adonis, Post 12

My Adonis may have the biggest hill to climb out of all of the Belmont Stakes contenders, starting at the 12^th post. He has had some success with high slots in the past, but still has not won a race since October 2011.

I think that the biggest obstacle for My Adonis is that no horse has ever won the Belmont Stakes from the 12^th post. That’s no horse since 1898. That's really saying something if no horse has been able to do it in over 100 years.

My Adonis has been given 20-1 odds to win the race but it is going to have to take a masterful performance for him to come out on top of the rest of the field.

I’ll Have Another, Post 11

All eyes will be on I’ll Have Another on Saturday, coming out of the 11^th post. He’s had an incredible run and could end up making history, but it won’t be easy. Only two horses since 1982 have won the Belmont Stakes from that starting slot.

I’ll Have Another did win the Kentucky Derby from the 19^th post though, which does give him a better chance to win since even though he will still be at an outside slot, there will be less horses in the pack. He also won the Preakness from the ninth slot.

Despite the 4-5 odds to win, it will be interesting to see how the race plays out for I’ll Have Another. There will be a lot of pressure on him to win since the Triple Crown is on the line, but if he wins we might be able to throw the slotting argument right out of the window.

Winning each Triple Crown race while starting towards would also be a major accomplishment.