Belmont Stakes 2012: I'll Have Another Will Not Win the Triple Crown

The Belmont Stakes is arguably the toughest leg of the Triple Crown.

The one-and-a-half mile track is the longest of all three races, but it’s the pressure of the race that truly makes it the most difficult.

This Saturday, Belmont Park will be packed to a potentially record-breaking capacity. Millions of others will tune in nationwide, all hoping to see horse racing history.

Could it be the first time in more than 30 years that a Triple Crown champion is blanketed with the famous white carnations?

After an in-depth analysis of this year’s race and some serious handicapping, I could only determine one thing.

I’ll Have Another, who drew the 11th spot at Wednesday’s pole position selection, will not win the Triple Crown.

Sorry horse racing fans, but this is the inevitable truth. We will not see our first Triple Crown winner in more than 30 years.

We all would love to watch history as I’ll Have Another crosses the finish line first this weekend, but the horse simply does not have what it takes to go the distance.

Let’s look back to 2003 when Funny Cide strolled into Elmont, N.Y., in pursuit of the coveted Triple Crown. He had beat Empire Maker by a neck in the Kentucky Derby and cruised to an easy victory over the field at the Preakness.

Empire Maker, who was a derby favorite, was rested during the Preakness and came back fresh and ready to run for the Belmont Stakes.

Needless to say, Funny Cide did not win that race. He finished third.

Empire Maker, however, went on to win the 135th Running of the Belmont Stakes and upset Funny Cide’s hopes and dreams of going down in horse racing history.

Sound familiar to anyone?

Both Union Rags and Dullahan skipped the Preakness in preparation for the Belmont Stakes.

The 144th Running of the Belmont Stakes will very likely be won by either of these two horses.

Union Rags was a closely favored second in the Kentucky Derby with 5-1 odds. Dullahan went off at 12-1, and Bodemeister was the favorite at 4-1 odds.

I’ll Have Another was a surprise at 15-1 and stole the show from them all. Dullahan ultimately finished third, less than two lengths back, while Union Rags was a nonfactor and finished seventh.

Union Rags has won four of his seven career starts and has hit the board in all but the Kentucky Derby where he was squeezed in a very competitive field.

After Julien Leparoux’s failed effort at the Derby, jockey John Velazquez now will have his chance Saturday atop trainer Michael Matz’s horse.

John Velazquez made history when he rode Rags to Riches to victory at the Belmont Stakes in 2007, becoming the first filly to claim the race since Tanya in 1905.

Saturday, he’ll be looking to make history again as he hopes to spoil I’ll Have Another’s shot at glory.

After the pole positions drawing yesterday, Velazquez and company must be happy knowing that he’ll be sitting third from the pole at the start of the race.

Outside of the first post position, which boasts 23 wins in the history of the Belmont Stakes, the third and fifth positions are both tied for second most wins with 13 each.

As luck would have it, Dullahan happened to draw the fifth spot at the pole position selection on Wednesday.

Trainer Dale Romans is back again with a well-rested horse who fell just short at the Kentucky Derby.

Jockey Kent Desormeaux has ridden Dullahan for six of his last seven races, but was removed in favor of jockey Javier Castellano after some recent alcohol-related issues and his failure to produce at the Derby (Desormeaux will ride Guyana Star Dweej).

Javier Castellano is hoping to upset I’ll Have Another and bring home his first victory at the Belmont Stakes in the process.

Dullahan has proved to be a formidable opponent in major graded stakes races, hitting the board in five of six and just missing out in the other with a fourth place finish at last year’s Breeder’s Cup Juvenile (due to a bumped start).

The increased distance will give him an excellent chance at making this trip a success.

Dullahan and Union Rags looked very impressive in their workouts Sunday, a good sign that they’re both ready to make a run at it.

Which one of the two runs away with this race is more or less a toss-up at this point.

Based off past performances and their most recent workouts, I’d give the slight edge to Dullahan.

But then again, the field is deep and anything can happen on race day.

The one thing I am confident of, however, is that I’ll Have Another will not have another big day at the 2012 Belmont Stakes.

He gave it a good run, but we’re just going to have to wait before we have another Triple Crown champion come our way.