San Francisco Giants: Breaking Down Tim Lincecum and the Starting Rotation

The San Francisco Giants are one-third of the way through the 2012 season, and once again, the starting rotation is the biggest strength of the team.  This year the rotation has remained excellent despite the early season struggles of its ace, Tim Lincecum.

While Lincecum has struggled with his velocity, command and control, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito have started the year throwing the ball exceptionally well.  The success of those four starters has buoyed the rotation's ERA to 3.35, third in baseball. 

Other metrics also paint a pretty picture for the starting staff.  They rank fifth in WAR (5.9), fourth in FIP (3.53), fourth in home run prevention (.75 HR/9) and tied for fifth in quality starts. 

Let's take a look at each starter and break down what to expect going forward in 2012. 

Matt Cain

Cain has become the ace of the staff by improving his command and control significantly from when he first entered the major leagues.  He uses an outstanding five-pitch mix which includes a four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a slider, a changeup and a curveball. 

His extreme flyball tendencies, as well as his ability to keep most of those flyballs in the park, helps him to prevent hits on balls in play better than any other pitcher in the game.  This season he has continued to decrease his walks while increasing his strikeouts, making a Cy Young award a very real possibility. 

The Giants and Cain agreed to a six-year contract extension at the end of spring training.  If the Giants had not locked him up before the season, the cost of doing business would have gotten a lot higher, given the way he has pitched through his first eleven starts.  Luckily, the Giants ace will be here for years to come. 

Madison Bumgarner

Like Cain, Bumgarner misses bats and hardly walks anyone.  Unlike Cain, he gets most of his outs on the ground. 

Bumgarner is more of a two-pitch pitcher that relies heavily on his low-90s fastball and hard slider combination. 

His changeup and curveball are still a work in progress at this point.  However, the guy is already an outstanding major league pitcher at an age where most of his peers are college seniors, so it's no surprise that he still has room for growth.

He also has had a few starts this season where his fastball command within the strike zone got a little lazy, particularly in his first start against Arizona and then again in a later start at Miami. 

The Giants agreed to a five-year contract extension with Bumgarner during the offseason.  If he continues to pitch this well, they are going to get an outstanding bargain on that deal. 

Ryan Vogelsong

I was very worried entering the season that Ryan Vogelsong's outstanding 2011 was going to be a major fluke, just like Andres Torres' breakout season in 2010 ended up being a mirage. 

Whoops. 

After starting the year on the disabled list with a back injury and struggling to regain his velocity in his first few starts, he has been just as good so far this season. 

His arsenal is somewhat similar to Roy Halladay's, without the elite command.  He uses a four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a cut-fastball, a curveball and a changeup. 

His high walk totals are very deceiving.  He doesn't walk people because he lacks control or command.  Instead, his walks typically come for a refusal to challenge within the strike zone, particularly with runners in scoring position. 

The best way to describe his pitching style would be to call it stubborn.  He just refuses to give in, which is why he is able to strand so many runners on base. 

Vogelsong is a flyball pitcher that doesn't miss as many bats as Cain, Bumgarner or Lincecum.  He may be due for some regression on his 2.38 ERA, although I said the same thing last season, and he finished the year at 2.71. 

Another season of a sub-three-ERA would be just fine. 

Barry Zito

Zito is not going to finish the season with a 2.98 ERA.  There is just no way that a guy averaging a fastball below 84 miles per hour can continue at this pace. 

However, when Zito has command of his four-pitch arsenal, he can be very tough to hit. 

The biggest adjustment he has made this season is to rely on his slider much more, particularly against right-handed hitters.  His slider usage is way up, while is fastball usage has gone down twenty percent, which is very smart given his lack of velocity. 

Even with increased reliance on the slider, Zito cannot maintain this pace given his lack of velocity and strikeouts, combined with his high walk totals.  As the season progresses, when Zito has command of all of his pitches, we will continue to see outings like he had on Sunday when he threw eight shutout innings. 

However, we will also see more starts like the one in Milwaukee when he had nothing and gave up eight runs in three innings. 

Zito has been really good so far this season, but he's likely to have more struggles along the way.  Add it all up, and it's certainly good enough for the back of a rotation, which is a minor miracle given how bad he looked in spring training. 

Tim Lincecum

It's been a very frustrating season for the Giants' Opening Day starter.  The team is just 2-10 when their former ace takes the ball so far. 

He has an ERA of 5.83, just two quality starts and a walk rate near five per nine innings.  The velocity has been down, the control has been erratic and the command has been his biggest problem.  He's also had really bad luck on balls in play, particularly with men in scoring position. 

The biggest problem may be that, according to pitching coach Dave Righetti (via Andrew Baggarly of CSNbayarea.com), he cannot throw much between starts because of an issue with blisters. 

I am surprised that a bigger deal has not been made of this issue.  If Lincecum cannot work on his mechanical problems in between starts, how is he going to get things fixed?

The good news is that in recent starts his velocity has started to tick up, and his overall arsenal has looked much more crisp.  Tuesday night against the Padres, he walked just one hitter, a sign that his control might be improving.  He also showed his former dominance by inducing nineteen swing-throughs. 

Lincecum is striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings.  Despite a drop in fastball velocity, his stuff is still clearly good enough to miss bats.  The real issues going forward will be to avoid free passes and to have better location within the strike zone.  Being able to throw between starts to correct the flaws in his delivery that are leading to his control and command issues would certainly help the cause.