March Madness: Projecting the Field of 65

The bubble picture, which was a complete mess about a week ago, is becoming slightly clearer as some teams have finally decided to start winning some games.

I'd say there are 27 locks at this point, 12 of which should receive automatic bids if everything goes to form in the conference tournaments.

They are North Carolina, Tennessee, Memphis, UCLA, Texas, Duke, Louisville, Kansas, Georgetown, Xavier, Stanford, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Washington State, Drake, Marquette, BYU, Butler, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, USC and Mississippi State.

That leaves 15 of the 34 at-large bids firmly accounted for nine days shy of Selection Sunday.  That leaves, at best, 19 spots open for bubble teams unless a surprise team wins their conference tournament, forcing one of the presumed autos to steal an at-large from a bubbler.

I'd say eight of those 19 remaining at-large slots are accounted for by "should be in teams," or teams that need maybe one more win to lock down their spot. They are Oklahoma, Clemson, Miami, UNLV, Kansas State, Texas A&M, West Virginia and Pittsburgh.

That leaves about 27 teams fighting for the final 11 at-larges. These are the true bubble teams.  To be original, I'll call them "Wallflowers" because after all, everyone wants to get into the Big Dance, but not all have the guts to ask a girl out onto the dance floor.

Atlantic Coast Conference 

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Dancing with a hottie: North Carolina (1 seed), Duke (2)

Dancing with a butterface: Clemson (7), Miami (7)

Wallflowers: Virginia Tech (out), Maryland (out)

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Clemson's loss at Georgia Tech Thursday, keeps the Tigers away from the hottie at this point, but a win at home against Virginia Tech on Sunday would make it 10 ACC wins and all 68 teams that have achieved that mark since 1985 have gone dancing.

That contest is far more important for Va Tech who has not beaten a team in the top 50 all season and does not have the profile to make the tournament right now, no matter what Joe Lunardi might think.

That being said, a win at Clemson Sunday gives them a marquee win and that all important 10th ACC victory. The fact that Miami (8-7 ACC) can't get to 10 wins in conference is the only reason the 'Canes are not locked up right now.

A win at FSU Saturday should do it but even if they lose that rivalry game, Miami should still be dancing thanks to wins over VCU, Miss St, Clemson, Va Tech, Duke and Maryland. The Terps, on the other hand, have nothing impressive on their resume aside from their shocking win at UNC on Jan. 19.

Since then, they've gone 0-5 against teams with a legitimate shot at the NCAAs. They HAVE to win at UVA Sunday, otherwise it's auto bid or NIT for Maryland.

Big 12 Conference

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Dancing with a hottie: Texas (2), Kansas (2)

Dancing with a butterface: Oklahoma (6), Kansas St (9), Texas A&M (9)

Wallflowers: Baylor (12), Texas Tech (out), Oklahoma State (out)

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Texas, Tennesse and UCLA. Those are the only teams in the country with more top 50 wins than the eight claimed by Oklahoma. That's why I have them as a six seed. A win at home versus Missouri Saturday or one victory in the Big 12 Tourney should lock things up for the Sooners.

Baylor suffered a huge setback losing in Waco to Texas A&M Wednesday. That moves the Aggies up a level and drops the Bears to one of the last teams in.

Another HUGE game for Baylor Saturday at Texas Tech, who plays great at home but looks like a DII team on the road. A win in this contest plus a finals appearance in the conference tourney could put Texas Tech in the Big Dance.

I had Oklahoma State in the field before they laid an egg at home against OU Wednesday. They had won five in a row but a home loss in March never looks good and now they have the daunting task of traveling to Austin in order to finish at .500 in the Big 12.

Pac-10 Conference

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Dancing with a hottie: UCLA (1), Stanford (3), Washington St (5), USC (8)

Dancing with a butterface: none

Wallflowers: Arizona (10), Arizona State (13), Oregon (out)

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How can I have USC locked up with an eight seed, but not Oklahoma with a six?

Well, I think the Sooners have the better profile, but I have an extremely hard time seeing the Committee leaving out a Trojan team with 10 wins in the very strong Pac-10 this year. Arizona and Oregon have an enormous game in Eugene this weekend.

The Ducks need a win to have any shot at an at-large, but Arizona could really use the win too. A loss Saturday would leave the Wildcats at 8-10 in conference heading into the Pac-10 Tournament.

Despite the second best strength of schedule in the country, a loss at Oregon would necessitate at least one win next week to make the Big Dance. Arizona State has been in and out of brackets more than any other team this year.

I currently have them as my last team in following their loss at Oregon. They MUST win at conference bottom-dweller Oregon State Saturday to get to .500 in conference. One win in the Pac-10 Tourney should do it from there for a team with five top 50 wins.

I'll be back later with glances at the Big East, SEC, Big Ten, A-10, MVC, Mountain West, Conference USA and all the other teams trying to dance in March.