Player Matchup: Nelson Cruz Vs. Brad Hawpe

It’s amazing to me how a little bit of hype for a player could push him up draft boards.  As we watch mock drafts this off season certain players just continue to be taken earlier and earlier, as owners want to get their hands on the next big thing.

That certainly is the situation with the Rangers Nelson Cruz (similar to Matt Wieters), whose ADP of 130.18 is actually higher then a steady performer such as Brad Hawpe (134.58).

For comparison purposes, let’s take a look at when each was drafted in the first two mock drafts we held here:

• Draft No. 1: Cruz went R10 P6, Hawpe went R12 P5
• Draft No. 2: Cruz went R10 P6, Hawpe went R12 P2

Before I get deeper into the comparison, I’m going to give you my opinion. I think it’s a huge mistake that people are making, given Cruz’ track record and past failures at the major league level.  Why, you ask?  Let’s get into the details…

Cruz is a player who has been labeled a Quadruple A player over the past few seasons.  Someone who can mash in the minor leagues, but when he gets his chance in the majors he just doesn’t seem to be able to put it together. These numbers are a great reason why he had picked up that label:

• 2005 (Milwaukee): 5 AB, .200, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 R, 0 SB
• 2006 (Texas): 130 AB, .223, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 15 R, 1 SB
• 2007 (Texas): 307 AB, .235, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 35 R, 2 SB

That’s not a small sample size, and he certainly deserved to be criticized for it.  Of course, at the magical age of 27, he suddenly put things together last season hitting .330 with seven HR over 115 AB down the stretch, earning himself a spot with the Rangers in 2009, but a prime batting spot as well. 

That certainly should help, as his 2008 stint came mostly hitting in the No. 6, 7 or 8 spots.

I know people want to look at his 37 HR at Triple A last season and say that he is finally for real.  It was in the PCL, which is worth noting, and the fifth consecutive season that he played games at the level.  I’m not going to say that’s the reason for his emergence, because we saw Geovanny Soto break out in his third season at Triple A and continue that emergence, so it certainly is not impossible.

On the other hand you have Brad Hawpe, who has been very consistent over the past 3 seasons.  Let’s take a look:

• 2006: 499 AB, .293, 22 HR, 84 RBI, 67 R, 5 SB
• 2007: 516 AB, .291, 29 HR, 116 RBI, 80 R, 0 SB
• 2008: 488 AB, .283, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 69 R, 2 SB

I know, 2008 was considered a disappointment considering the numbers he posted the prior year, and that’s fair. Instead of taking the next step in his development he fell back to what he had previously been. It’s not what owners want to see, but it really is not the worst-case scenario, either.

With Matt Holliday now playing in Oakland, the Rockies will likely use Hawpe in a much more prime position in the batting order. Granted, he did hit clean-up part of the time last season, but he spent the majority of his time batting sixth (221 AB).

It certainly should help him rebound in the RBI department, as well as in Runs, though he’s just not going to be a 100 R player.

It’s amazing, considering his OBP over the past three seasons (.383, .387, 381) that he hasn’t been able to score more often, but at this point you just have to take it for what it is.  I could easily see him returning to scoring at least 80 runs, but that’s going to be about it.

How many is Cruz going to score? It wouldn’t surprise me to see him right around that same range, if he really has turned the corner. I know, he scored a total of 112 runs last season, but only 19 of those came in the major leagues. That would project out to 88 over a full season (550 AB), though reaching 90 is not out of the question.

That’s assuming he continues to hit clean up and doesn’t struggle, once again falling into the realm of Quadruple A players.

If they both hit in the middle of the order, they are likely to have similar RBI totals, but again, I just feel like there is much more risk surrounding Cruz then there is Hawpe.  Hawpe has put up solid numbers over the past three seasons, and that’s not something that should just be ignored.

Cruz, meanwhile, has had just one big 119 AB stretch in the major leagues and is by no means a guarantee to be able to continue that. I can say that for average, as well. Hawpe has proven to be a .290 hitter in the major leagues. What has Cruz proven?

Don’t get me wrong, I really like Cruz for this season, but as a sleeper choice. If I could get him late in my draft, I’m grabbing him in a heartbeat. He’s got tremendous upside and easily could be a 30 HR hitter this season. At the same time, what have we seen to prove that? 

This isn’t a rookie who is coming up for the first time we know nothing about. This is a player who failed miserable over the past few seasons and then suddenly blew-up at age 27. Even in the minors he was never this type of hitter.

As I stated earlier, this type of turnaround does happen.  We saw it with Geovanny Soto, but that doesn’t mean every flash of brilliance is going to continue the following season. Dallas McPherson is in a similar situation and he’s not getting nearly as much attention.

Why? Because he didn’t do it at the major league level?  Cruz has suddenly built a cult following and it’s causing his draft price to rise to higher and higher levels. Hawpe, meanwhile, is a steady performer with the potential to return to his 2007 glory.  His downside? A .290, 25 HR, 85 RBI hitter, certainly nothing to sneeze at.

Cruz could out perform Hawpe, but he could also completely fail. To me, a person who is certainly not risk averse, I’d go Hawpe if I had the choice, but I’m likely not to fall into that trap. Like I said with Wieters, I’m just not going to draft Cruz where he is being selected.

What do you think? Who would you rather draft?

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