2012 NBA Mock Draft: Predicting Which Prospects Will Succeed and Fail in the NBA

The 2012 NBA draft order is set in stone—barring any pre-draft swapping of picks—and that means it's time for a wave of mock drafts to come out. 

Instead of just predicting which players are going to go where, this mock draft also predicts whether the selected player will succeed or fail in the NBA, specifically in his rookie year.

Ahead you will find an entire first-round mock draft including predictions on whether the player selected will excel at the next level or be added to the long list of draft busts. 

No. 30 Golden State Warriors: Will Barton, SG, Memphis

Profile:  6'6'' 175 lbs., SG

Succeed or Fail?  Succeed Late

Will Barton is an interesting draft prospect.  He's one of the best pure scorers in the entire draft, but his 175-pound frame will keep teams from taking a risk on him.

Aside from the fact that Barton is one of the leanest players in the draft, he also struggles with poor shot selection and being a streaky shooter.

With that being said, when Barton is on fire he is a hard player to stop. If the Warriors pull the trigger, the former Memphis Tiger he will be able to step in and add bench scoring to a team that desperately needs it.

Barton's ability as a pure-scorer is something that will translate to the NBA even if he is lacking in strength. 

No. 29 Chicago Bulls: Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky

Profile:  6'4'', 210 lbs., SG

Succeed or Fail:  Succeed Immediately

The team that drafts Doron Lamb will be getting one of the best pure shooters in the 2012 draft class.

In his two years at Kentucky, Lamb had a 47.6 percent career three-point shooting percentage—exactly the reason why scouts will fall in love with him.

If Lamb finds his way onto a team looking for a pure shooter, like the Chicago Bulls, he will excel during his rookie year because he can flat out shoot the ball.

While Lamb could benefit from adding some size to his small frame, there is no doubt that he his stroke will help him shine from the moment his NBA career starts.  

Don't be shocked if Lamb ends up being one of the steals of the 2012 NBA draft.  

No. 28 Oklahoma City Thunder: Jeffrey Taylor, SF, Vanderbilt

Profile:  6'7'', 225 lbs., SF

Succeed or Fail?  Fail Hard

Jeffrey Taylor is a prospect who really helped himself out during the Vanderbilt Commodore's run in both the SEC tournament and the 2012 NCAA tournament.

Taylor is an exciting prospect because of his ability to jump out of the gym and explode to the basket.  The only problem with that is he can rely too much on his athleticism at times, sometimes leading to reckless play.

It will take time for Taylor to develop into a valuable role player in the NBA, with his first season being anything but a success.

Taylor will need to take time and develop his jumper if he wants to excel in the NBA, and that's not something he will be able to do during his rookie year when he is trying to catch up to the speed of the game.

Taylor is the definition of a project player, and a team like the Oklahoma City Thunder can afford to draft him to be just that. 

No. 27 Miami Heat: Festus Ezeli, C, Vanderbilt

Profile:  6'11'', 255 lbs., C

Succeed or Fail?  Succeed in the Right System

Festus Ezeli is a mature player who can excel as long as he gets drafted by the right team. 

The Miami Heat are that team.  They don't need a center who's going to put up double-doubles, but they need a player who can run in the transition with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade better than the guys they currently have.

Ezeli, who is ridiculously quick and agile for his size, would fit in extremely well with the Heat, as the expectations for him wouldn't be extremely high. In addition, Ezeli's lack of basketball IQ would be masked by the talent around him.

I expect the Heat to reach for Ezeli in the draft. If they do that they will be getting a player who is ready to succeed in his rookie campaign. 

No. 26 Indiana Pacers: Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky

Profile:  6'2'', 179 lbs., PG

Succeed or Fail?  Fail Early 

Marquis Teague should be getting ready for another season at Kentucky instead of preparing for the 2012 NBA draft.

Not only is he a very small point guard, but he also doesn't have a reliable jumper. He also can play a little out of control at times.

In spite of his drawbacks, Teague has a high upside.  He has great court vision and is very athletic, but it will take longer than one year for him to harness those abilities in the NBA.

Teague will struggle mightily in his rookie season when he sees the court. The good news is, he won't get that much playing time, because if he gets drafted in the latter part of the first round, he will go to a team that doesn't need him to make an immediate impact. 

No. 25 Memphis Grizzlies: Tyshawn Taylor, PG, Kansas

Profile:  6'3'' 180 lbs., PG

Succeed or Fail?  Succeed 

The one word that comes to mind when you hear the name Tyshawn Taylor is "inconsistent."

While Taylor was wildly inconsistent during his senior year at Kansas, his production at the point skyrocketed when he realized that he is better when he plays aggressively.

On the right team, like the Memphis Grizzlies, Taylor can excel. He has the physical skills and experience it takes to succeed in the NBA.  He just needs someone to mentor him, and Mike Conley Jr. could be that guy.

Taylor is a very smart player, and his basketball IQ will carry him through his rookie season. Keep your eyes on Taylor to be one of the sleepers in the 2012 draft class. 

No. 24 Cleveland Cavaliers: Fab Melo, C, Syracuse

Profile:  7'0'', 274 lbs., C

Succeed or Fail?  Fail Early, Succeed Late 

If Fab Melo had actually played in the 2012 NCAA tournament he could very well be a lottery pick in this year's draft.

Fortunately for him, falling in the draft is actually a good thing, as it will give him a chance to get drafted by a team that will be able to gradually transition him into the NBA.

While Melo is a raw offensive player, his massive seven-foot frame will help him make an immediate impact in the NBA on the defensive side of the ball.

Melo's low basketball IQ will hold him back early on, but with the right veteran talent around him, he will learn the nuances of game and end up being one of the more productive rookies from the 2012 draft class. 

No. 23 Atlanta Hawks, SG, Tony Wroten, PG/SG, Washington

Profile:  6'5'', 205 lbs., PG

Succeed or Fail?  Fail

Tony Wroten is a perfect example of a player who listened to some bad advice and entered the NBA draft a bit earlier than he should have.

While he showed glimpses of being an elite point guard during his days at Washington, Wroten is too inconsistent to make an immediate impact in the NBA.

Teams drafting Wroten should know that he's going to fail early in his career because of the lack of polish in his offensive game.

Wroten could be a solid point guard one day, but it's going to take some time for him to adjust his raw talents to the speed and intensity of the NBA.

No. 22 Boston Celtics: Royce White, SF, Iowa State

Profile:  6'8'', 240 lbs., SF/PF

Succeed or Fail?  Fail Hard

Royce White is major question mark among the high-upside prospects in this draft. 

White has a lot of potential, with his physicality, shooting range and defensive abilities, but he has a lot of uncertainty surrounding him as well.

He was kicked off his team when he played at Minnesota and continues to struggle with a serious anxiety disorder. On the court, he is very inconsistent player as well. 

While White has the tools he needs to succeed, I see him struggling to adapt to the NBA lifestyle, which will result in him failing miserably. I am pulling for White, but I don't think he has the maturity he needs to succeed right now.

No. 21 Boston Celtics: Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois

Profile:  7'0'', 240 lbs., C

Succeed or Fail?  Fail Early, Succeed Late

Meyers Leonard is a raw player who will struggle to find his offensive touch early on in his NBA career.

The one thing that will carry Leonard during his rookie year is the intensity that he brings to the court. Unlike other center prospects, like Andre Drummond and Tyler Zeller, Leonard plays with a high level of intensity on both sides of the ball.

Leonard will earn his stripes in his rookie year by getting the reputation of a player who isn't afraid to push guys around. Particularly on the defensive side of the ball, his seven-foot frame will be a nice addition to any teams' frontcourt. 

No. 20 Denver Nuggets: Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor

Profile:  6'9'', 210 lbs., SF

Succeed or Fail?  Fail Hard

Quincy Miller should be back at Baylor taking summer classes instead of working out at pre-draft camps and getting ready for the draft combine.

Unfortunately, someone told Miller that he is ready for the NBA when that is certainly not the case.

Miller's versatility, range and athleticism are enticing, but his immaturity and lack of polish on the defensive side of the ball will hinder his transition to the next level.

There is no doubt that Miller can develop into a solid role player in the NBA, but he is not ready to do that just yet. Despite his bust potential, someone will fall in love with Miller's potential and take him in round one.

No. 19 Orlando Magic: Terrence Jones, PF, Kentucky

Profile:  6'8'', 244 lbs., PF

Succeed or Fail?  Succeed Off and On

One look at Terrence Jones' 6'8'', 244-pound frame, and you would think that he is already in the NBA. Based on physique alone, he is ready to compete at the next level.

What makes Jones such a promising prospect is the fact that he does not rely on his athleticism, often taking his game out to the perimeter to showcase his range. 

Jones has all the tools he needs to become an All-Star in the NBA. The only question is whether or not he will show up night in and night out.

Inconsistency and a lack of motor on Jones' part held back his career at Kentucky and it is very possible that it will hold him back early on in the NBA. With that being said, he still has the potential to be one of the best players out of the 2012 draft class. 

No. 18 Minnesota Timberwolves: Moe Harkless, SF, St. Johns

Profile:  6'8'', 190 lbs., SF

Succeed or Fail?  Succeed Early, Fail Often

Moe Harkless is somewhat of an enigma. He is an extremely athletic player with a lot of potential, but he is also one of the most inconsistent players in the draft.

Inconsistency doesn't translate to the NBA, and that will be the case for Harkless early on in his NBA career.

Harkless will ride his athletic advantage early on and finish with a handful of exciting performances, but once he gets too confident, he will start to struggle and his inconsistency will take over.

The Timberwolves might replace one of their most inconsistent players, Michael Beasley, with another one in Moe Harkless, and that is not good news for either player. 

No. 17 Dallas Mavericks: Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse

Profile:  6'4'', 215 lbs., PG/SG

Succeed or Fail?  Succeed Immediately

Dion Waiters could very well be the steal of the 2012 NBA draft—as long as he finds his way onto a team that will give him minutes and utilize him the right way.  

The Dallas Mavericks are that team. Waiters has the ability to play as either a shooting guard or a point guard, and that the Mavericks have a need at both of those positions. 

Even if Jason Kidd and Jason Terry are back in Dallas next year, Waiters will give them a run for their money. He is athletic, explosive and has an uncanny ability to finish around the rim.

Don't be surprised if Waiters is in contention for the 2013 Rookie of the Year award. 

No. 16 Houston Rockets: Terrence Ross, SG, Washington

Profile:  6'6'', 195 lbs., SG

Succeed or Fail?  A Little Bit of Both

Unlike some other sophomores in this year is draft class, Terrence Ross left school at just the right time.

After a stellar year at Washington, Ross is ready to make an immediate impact in the NBA ranks. The only problem is that he might find his way onto a team that won't be able to find a place for him immediately.

If Ross finds his way onto the Rockets, his minutes will be limited behind Kevin Martin and Courtney Lee. With only short stretches of playing time, Ross will try to do too much when he is on the court.

By the end of his rookie campaign, however, Ross will have shown glimpses of being an explosive guard in the NBA, and those glimpses will outshine the times that he struggled. 

No. 15 Philadelphia 76ers: Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State

Profile:  6'11'', 255 lbs., PF

Succeed or Fail?  Fail Early, Succeed Late

Arnett Moultrie is an athletic draft prospect with a very high upside. He is athletic, versatile and runs the floor like a guard.

If the 76ers are able to land Moultrie it will certainly mean the end to Elton Brand's career in Philadelphia. His skill-set matches up well with a young and athletic 76ers team that would benefit from added versatility in the frontcourt.  

Early on, Moultrie will struggle because he will rely more on his perimeter game than he should. But once he realizes that he can beat NBA big men with his athleticism, he will go from being a bust to being one of the steals of the draft.

No. 14 Houston Rockets: Tyler Zeller, C, North Carolina

Profile:  7'0'', 250 lbs., C

Succeed or Fail?  Fail 

Tyler Zeller needed another year at North Carolina. Unfortunately, he used up all four years of his eligibility already.

While his 7'0'' frame will garner a lot of excitement from scouts, Zeller still plays relatively small in the post.

I don't see Zeller excelling at any point during his first season, but that doesn't mean he won't ever be able to be a serviceable NBA player.

If Zeller can get stronger and focus on exploiting defenders with his mid-range jumper, he might have a future in the Association. 

No. 13 Phoenix Suns: Austin Rivers, PG/SG, Duke

Profile:  6'4'', 199 lbs., PG/SG

Succeed or Fail?  A Little Bit of Both

Austin Rivers would have benefited from staying at Duke for one more year, as he is still a little rough around the edges. 

He does have the skills to compete in the NBA, but he needs to be more disciplined on both sides of the ball.

There will be times when Rivers shows glimpses of being a player who can put up 20-plus points per game in the NBA, but he will also show glimpses of being a player who can jack up 12-plus shots and hit only a few of them. 

Efficiency is the name of the game for Rivers, and it will take some time for him to develop in that regard. Expect some growing pains for Rivers early. 

No. 12 Milwaukee Bucks: Jared Sullinger, PF, Ohio State

Profile:  6'9'', 280 lbs., PF

Shine or Fail?  Fail Hard

I might be in the minority here, but I don't see Jared Sullinger's skill-set translating to the NBA.

While Sullinger's 280-pound frame will help him rebound the ball, it won't help him anywhere else on the court. He won't be anything special on offense, and on defense, he won't be able to hang with the league's more explosive power forwards. 

Sullinger lacks athleticism and is not fundamentally sound. If he is taken in the lottery, he could easily end up being the biggest bust of the 2012 NBA draft. 

No. 11 Portland Trail Blazers: Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina

Profile:  6'4'', 188 lbs., PG

Succeed or Fail?  Succeed Early

Kendall Marshall might be the only true point guard in this year's draft class. Marshall might not be the most athletic or most physical guard, but that does not mean he will not make an instant impact.

The one thing that will carry Marshall during his rookie year is his ability to create opportunities for those around him.

The Trail Blazers would be a good fit for Marshall as he would thrive creating open looks for the likes of LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and whoever the team drafts with its No. 6 overall pick.

No. 10 New Orleans Hornets: Damian Lillard, PG/SG, Weber State

Profile:  6'2'', 185 lbs., PG

Succeed or Fail?  Fail Early, Succeed Late

Damian Lillard is this year's Isaiah Thomas, except that Lillard won't be taken with the final pick of the draft.

Lillard is a bit undersized, but he will equalize that disadvantage with his physicality and incredible ability to score the ball.

He would make an impact coming off the bench for the Hornets, scoring in droves against any opponent. 

Don't be shocked if Lillard struggles early because of his lack of size before making a late run at the 2013 Rookie of the Year award. 

No. 9 Detroit Pistons: John Henson, PF, North Carolina

Profile:  6'10'', 210 lbs., PF

Succeed or Fail?  Succeed Immediately 

John Henson is ready to compete at the NBA level. 

While he needs to add some bulk and work on his perimeter game, his adherence to the fundamentals of the game will carry him during his rookie season.

If the Pistons draft Henson, he will team up with Greg Monroe and form one of the most exciting frontcourts in the NBA.

Henson is the kind of high-character player that is hard to find these days. His integrity, combined with a willingness to outwork everyone on the court, will help him have an extremely successful rookie campaign.  

No. 8 Toronto Raptors: Jeremy Lamb, SG, Connecticut

Profile:  6'5'', 185 lbs., SG

Succeed or Fail?  Fail Hard 

Jeremy Lamb is one heck of an athlete.  Unfortunately, that won't matter in the NBA as much as it did in the collegiate ranks. 

Lamb's weak frame and lack of physicality will seriously hinder his rookie season.

If he is able to drop back in the draft to a better team, his rookie season might go differently, but I highly doubt that will happen.

Whoever drafts Lamb will expect him to make an instant impact, but that is not going to happen because he is just not NBA-ready right now. Lamb needs to put on 20 more pounds of muscle or move to the point if he wants to excel in the NBA. 

No. 7 Golden State Warriors: Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina

Profile:  6'8'', 210 lbs. SF

Succeed or Fail?  Succeed Early  

Harrison Barnes is the most fundamentally sound player in the entire 2012 draft.

Barnes also happens to be the one player who will be as efficient as he is consistent in his rookie year.

He has all the intangibles of an NBA star: maturity, leadership and a strong work ethic. 

Barnes won't make the Warriors a contender in the West, but he will certainly help them be a much better team in 2013. 

No. 6 Portland Trail Blazers: Andre Drummond, C, Connecticut

Profile:  6'11'' 275 lbs., C

Succeed or Fail?  Fail Early 

Remember the last Connecticut center that was draft in the lottery—Hasheem Thabeet?

Andre Drummond won't be anywhere near that bad during his rookie season, but he certainly will struggle.

Drummond will struggle early in his career because he is a very raw offensive talent. When he has the ball in his hands, NBA centers will eat him alive, and that will be hard for him to overcome early on.  

Defensively speaking, he will be able to hold his own against most centers in the NBA.

No. 5 Sacramento Kings: Perry Jones III, PF, Baylor

Profile:  6'11'', 235 lbs., PF

Succeed or Fail?  Fail Early, Succeed Late

Perry Jones III is one of the most athletic players in the draft and scouts will fall in love with his lanky 6'11'' frame.

The only problem with Jones is that he is a very streaky player.  At Baylor, Jones would take plays off and did not hustle every time down the court.

That same kind of lackadaisical mentality will hold him back in the NBA, especially if he is drafted by the Sacramento Kings. 

If Jones gets significant minutes as the season progresses, however, he will learn how to use his athleticism to his advantage and make a strong push going into his second year in the NBA. 

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal, SG, Florida

Profile:  6'4'', 195 lbs., SG

Succeed or Fail?  Succeed Immediately

Bradley Beal will be a player to keep on the 2013 Rookie of the Year watch list.  He is one of the best pure shooters in the draft, and has an NBA-ready frame to compete at the 2-guard spot.

Getting drafted by the Cavaliers would benefit Beal as he would get to play alongside 2012 Rookie of the Year Kyrie Irving. But even if Beal is taken by a different club, he will be able to step in and make an immediate impact.

The range on his jump shot and his ability to explode to the rim will help him be more successful than other shooting guards in the draft. 

No. 3 Washington Wizards: Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas

Profile:  6'9'', 237 lbs., PF

Succeed or Fail?  Fail Early

Thomas Robinson is certainly one of the top athletes of the 2012 draft class, but his skills will take some refining until he is ready to make an impact in the NBA.

Scouts will fall in love with Robinson's physique and athleticism, but they should be aware of his tendency to play smaller than he is.

Robinson, as he did at Kansas, will rely on his perimeter game a little more than he should, which will lead to him struggling to find a role on a Wizards team trying to rebuild.

With the right coaching and veteran leadership, Robinson can be a talented power forward in the NBA, but he is going to need some time to develop. 

No. 2 Charlotte Bobcats: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky

Profile:  6'7'', 210 lbs., SF

Succeed or Fail?  Succeed Immediately 

While the Charlotte Bobcats are certainly disappointed they didn't land the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, they very well might be better off in the two-spot.

Drafting Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is an excellent move for the Bobcats to make, as I think he has the potential to be the best player of the 2012 NBA draft.

Kidd-Gilchrist has an NBA-ready body and he is one of the most consistent and mature players in the entire draft.

Part of why Kidd-Gilchrist would shine early-on would have to do with how bad the Bobcats are as a team, but that doesn't mean he is not a good player. With his ability to get to the rim, MKG will quickly become a solid starter in the NBA. 

No. 1 New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky

Profile:  6'11'', 220 lbs., PF

Succeed or Fail?  Succeed Immediately

Anthony Davis' transition to the NBA will certainly have its ups and downs, but his athleticism will lead to immediate success in the NBA ranks.

While being the top pick in the 2012 draft will bring a lot of hype, Davis will be able to live up to it.

Even if he struggles offensively early on in his rookie year, his defensive prowess will be enough to help him contribute to a Hornets team looking to do some serious rebuilding.

I don't think Davis will win the 2013 Rookie of the Year award, but he will still make an instant impact in the NBA.