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NBA Draft 2012: Predicting Every Lottery Pick and Which Ones Will Go Bust

Stephen BabbJun 7, 2018

With Wednesday's NBA Draft Lottery now history, we can finally make some credible predictions about how teams will use the lottery to go from worst to first.

In a perfect world, of course, those lottery selections would change teams' fates and help ensure they stay out of the lottery for a long time to come. Unfortunately, not every prospect pans out as planned. Some will outperform even the most optimistic projections. Others will be let-downs of monumental proportions.

That is the nature of the beast.

Here's what to expect from the lottery teams participating in June 28's draft. They'll each have a shot at greatness, but there will be no guarantees.

14. Houston Rockets: Austin Rivers, G (Duke)

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Austin Rivers is a pure scorer with the potential to become a prototypical spark-plug sixth man. If he becomes a better all-around guard by improving his floor vision, he could very well become a legitimate star. The Houston Rockets' roster has a number of variables up in the air right now, but Rivers may be too good to pass up if he's still around.

Bust Potential: It all depends on what you mean by "bust." At the very worst, Rivers will find a prominent role lighting it up off a team's bench. At best, he could earn himself a starting job and make quite a name for himself.

13. Phoenix Suns: Terrence Jones, SF (Kentucky)

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The Phoenix Suns have to start thinking about life after Steve Nash. It would make some sense to go after a point guard here, but Phoenix desperately needs someone with a little bit of star potential—and there aren't many point guards in this draft who fit that profile. Jones is a bit of a tweener, but it's his multifaceted abilities that make him so impressive in the first place. 

Bust Potential: Average. There's almost no chance Jones will be a total disappointment, but he may not live up to what is undoubtedly some very high potential. If there were greater certainty that he would, he'd probably be a top-five pick.

12. Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Zeller, C (North Carolina)

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The Milwaukee Bucks need to get their hands on a center, and Tyler Zeller should be the best one available. He's give the Bucks a well-rounded presence in the middle who should thrive with the fleet-footed backcourt of Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings.

Bust Potential: Very low. Zeller may never be an All-Star, but there's almost no chance he'll be anything short of solid.

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11. Portland Trail Blazers: Terrence Ross, SG (Washington)

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The Portland Trail Blazers have a solid shooting guard in Wesley Matthews, but Terrence Ross could be the starter of the future. He's a lot like a slightly bigger version of Matthews, only with a little more athleticism and upside.

Bust Potential: Uncertain. Ross has been consistent enough that there's no reason to think he'll struggle in the big leagues—but until we see him in action against the pros, who knows?

10. New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota Timberwolves): Damian Lillard, PG (Weber

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The New Orleans Hornets have a lot of options here. After getting a premium player with the first-overall selection, they can address an area of need later in the lottery. Though Jarrett Jack is the starting point guard for now, Damian Lillard could step into that role sooner rather than later. He's an absolutely electric scorer.

Bust Potential: Low. Lillard may never become an elite pass-first point guard, but his ability to light it up will ensure he has an important role to play.

9. Detroit Pistons: John Henson, PF (North Carolina)

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John Henson is a solid athlete, and that's exactly what the Detroit Pistons need accompanying Greg Monroe in the paint. He's not yet a dangerous scorer, but he'll impact games defensively and on the glass.

Bust Potential: Somewhat high. Henson may be the next Serge Ibaka, but he could also be one of the countless high-flying athletes to flop.

8. Toronto Raptors: Jeremy Lamb, SG (UConn)

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The Toronto Raptors need a lot of help. While there's some good young talent on this team, there really isn't anyone who projects to become a legitimate franchise player. Jeremy Lamb might not be that guy either, but he has a better chance than DeMar DeRozan at this point.

Bust Potential: Average. Lamb needs to add some muscle to his frame, and he's obviously yet to prove that he can handle the NBA's intensity. At the very least, his talent should make him a consistent contributor.

7. Golden State Warriors: Perry Jones III, PF (Baylor)

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If all goes right for Perry Jones III, he could make a a few teams seriously regret not selecting him. He's as gifted an athlete as you'll find at 6'11", but he's also a skilled, versatile forward who knows how to play basketball.

Bust Potential: Unfortunately, somewhat high. He could be the next Kevin Garnett, or he could be the next Anthony Randolph.

6. Portland Trail Blazers (from Brooklyn Nets): Andre Drummond, C (UConn)

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The Portland Trail Blazers currently have a huge hole in the middle of their lineup, and they'd probably prefer to keep LaMarcus Aldridge at power forward. Andre Drummond would give the team a big, athletic center with lots of upside.

Bust Potential: It's a very real concern with Drummond. For all his talent and potential, he hasn't been especially consistent.

5. Sacramento Kings: Harrison Barnes, SF (North Carolina)

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Andre Drummond is an intriguing option here, but the Sacramento Kings need a safe bet. Barnes should quickly settle in to the NBA and become a complementary jump-shooter at the very least. He'd also make Sacramento a much better defensive club thanks to his good size and sound perimeter defense.

Bust Potential: Very small. Barnes may not be living up to some of the hype that's surrounded him since his freshman campaign at UNC, but that says more about hype than it does about Barnes. In the right system, Barnes could be a great small forward and a starter for a long time.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal, SG (Florida)

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The Cleveland Cavaliers have a quickly improving core thanks to Rookie of the Year Kyrie Irving, but they'd do well to get their hands on a go-to scorer like Bradley Beal. Together, Irving and Beal would form a dangerous backcourt tandem.

Beal is the epitome of a versatile scorer. He doesn't have prototypical size for a 2-guard, but he should be able to succeed in the mold of Eric Gordon.

Bust Potential: Very unlikely. There's no guarantee Beal will become a superstar, but it's hard to imagine him putting up anything less than 15 to 16 points a game once he starts to find his way at the pro level.

3. Washington Wizards: Thomas Robinson, PF (Kansas)

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The Washington Wizards need a power forward with star potential, but they also need toughness. Needless to say, they really don't come any tougher than Robinson.

For good measure, though, he's also a talented player on both ends of the floor—and easily the best scorer at his position in the draft.

Bust Potential: Unthinkable. Robinson may not be especially tall at the 4 position, but he's strong enough to compensate.

2. Charlotte Bobcats: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF (Kentucky)

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Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has the potential to be the best player in the entire draft. He's not a pure shooter by any means, but he does just about everything else exceptionally well. Given that the Charlotte Bobcats need defense, rebounds and an infusion of leadership, they'll be quite happy to land Kidd-Gilchrist.

Bust Potential: Virtually none. In a very worst-case scenario, Kidd-Gilchrist could wind up a lot like Andre Iguodala. That would be disappointing in some respects, but hardly a bust.

1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF (Kentucky)

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Even if the New Orleans Hornets re-sign power forward Carl Landry, there's no question Anthony Davis would represent a significant upgrade on this front line.

After averaging nearly five blocks a game and making it inordinately difficult for opponents to score in Kentucky's paint, he's made a name for himself as one of the most intimidating defenders in the country. He has to skill and athleticism to become a very good scorer too

Bust Potential: Forget about it. Davis has not become the unanimous favorite to be selected first-overall by accident. That said, there's no guarantee he'll be the next Kevin Garnett or Tim Duncan. Davis relies so much on his athletic ability that there's no telling how he'll develop once he adds some muscle.

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