2012 NBA Mock Draft: Overrated College Stars Who Will Flop in the NBA

Prolific college talent doesn’t always carry over to the NBA. Just ask the Detroit Pistons and Darko Milicic, the Portland Trailblazers and Sam Bowie or Michael Olowokandi and the Los Angeles Clippers.

So it goes in every draft class, there will be overrated college players who will become nothing at the next level, and the 2012 draft class is no exception. While there is serious talent in this group of NBA hopefuls, there are also guys who will flop in the league.

Here is a 2012 NBA mock draft that highlights the picks who are most likely to become busts.

1. Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky

The consensus No. 1 of the draft class, Davis is the closest thing to a lock in the 2012 NBA draft. There’s not a big man in the draft who can rival his athleticism, quickness and length, as well as the impact he makes on both ends of the floor. He can guard the perimeter and the paint, and cleans up the glass as well as any big man in the class.

2. Washington Wizards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky

Presumably the second Kentucky freshman to be drafted in 2012, Kidd-Gilchrist drives to the hoop with strength and explosiveness that most defenders can’t stop. He’s praised much more for his defense, as his size and quickness should allow him to lock down point guards, shooting guards and small forwards with ease.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers: Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas

Robinson can run the floor, shoot the ball, rebound and play defense with the best of them. Originally, I was worried that he would have a tough time playing NBA basketball because of how much he relies on his brute strength and athleticism, but then I remembered there’s a guy named Blake Griffin in the league who uses the same tactics.

4. New Orleans Hornets: Bradley Beal, SG, Florida

Beal scares me as an NBA prospect because if he did not perform so well in the SEC and NCAA tournament, we'd be looking at him getting picked way later, probably at the bottom of the first round. 

At 6'4", he's shorter than most successful shooting guards and sees his shot blocked quite frequently because of that lack of size. He struggled to create for himself with the Gators and has trouble finishing in the paint amongst the big men. He shot a mere 34 percent from three-point range, so I really don't see what the big deal is about this guy.

He's a good jump shooter, but can't get himself open, which means he needs a solid point guard to find shots for him. He's not going to grow, and the athletic shooting guards in the NBA are going to take advantage of him because of that. Beal isn't a premier athletic spectacle, and he can easily be stopped when he is face-guarded by a bigger defender.

The Hornets have a decent point guard in Greivis Vasquez, but he's not the type of guy who is going to make Beal great. They probably won't be playing together for their entire careers, but getting off to a good start as a young guy in the league can do wonders for a player.

Be wary of Beal, Hornets' fans, as he has more than a decent chance to be an NBA bust.

5. Sacramento Kings: Andre Drummond, PF/C, Connecticut

Drummond has crazy athleticism for a guy who is 6'11", 270 pounds, but only put up 10 points and 7.6 rebounds per game with the Huskies in his lone season. He might have one of the highest ceilings in the draft class, but the name Kwame Brown comes to mind when you think of guys with this kind of size and highly touted potential.

He doesn't have a hook shot yet, and most of his tapes are just him scoring on put-back dunks or alley-oops. Drummond has a huge problem shooting free throws and couldn't put a ball in the ocean if he was standing on the dock. 

He has really brutal form on his jumpers, which is bothersome because we're in the middle of the "death-of-the-back-to-the-basket-big-man" age. The thing about Drummond is that he's hardly a force with his back to the basket, as he has yet to figure out exactly what to do in the low-post area.

Drummond isn't a lot by any stretch of the mind, and we could see the same fate befall him that has befell so many highly-picked big men in the past.

6. Portland Trailblazers: Jared Sullinger, PF/C, Ohio State

Sullinger has the advantage of his extremely low center of gravity: a 280-pound frame to bully defenders in the paint. He's got a butt like Charles Barkley, and will have no problem asserting himself against lighter defenders in the NBA.

7. Golden State Warriors: Harrison Barnes, SF, UNC

I love Barnes for the Warriors. Stephen Curry at the point, Klay Thompson plays the two, Barnes plays the three, David Lee at the four and a healthy Andrew Bogut (who knows?) at center, and suddenly the Warriors don't look so bad.

8. Toronto Raptors: Perry Jones SF/PF, Baylor

We saw Jones get this same kind of hype coming out of high school, then fail to live up to the hype with Baylor. It wouldn't surprise me to see Jones, who has been relying on his athleticism and size for much of his life, disappoint when he gets to the league.

He's explosive under the rim, but too often he is content to mosey down the court, jogging to get back to position. At 6'11", he's just 235 pounds, which isn't going to fly against the stronger and larger big men in the NBA. It's not like he's a strong 235 either, he doesn't take contact in stride, and he doesn't dribble too well down low.

Like most young players, he has failed to commit to playing defense. You have to love defense to play it every time down the court, and if he doesn't love it by now, it's hard to see him ever playing staunch defense.

He's not a good passer at all from the low-post position and frequently misses jumpers that you would expect a top-10 talent to put in. It seems to me that his head isn't always in the game, and that starts some players off on a bad foot, sending them toward a downward spiral before they even play in a professional game.

9. Detroit Pistons: Austin Rivers, SG, Duke

Rivers is a lights out shooter with an uncanny ability to finish in the paint. He has basketball in his blood—with his father being Doc Rivers—as well as a good work ethic.

10. New Orleans Hornets: Tyler Zeller, C, UNC

Zeller is a versatile big man who can get down the floor in a hurry, score from the paint and even further out. At 7', he has great height for an NBA center.

11. Portland Trailblazers: Jeremy Lamb, SG, Connecticut

Lamb is a creative scorer from all over the court. He's got the size to dominate at the shooting guard position in the NBA and the quickness to magnify his size advantage.

12. Milwaukee Bucks: Terrence Jones, SF/PF, Kentucky

Jones is a good ball handler with great size and potential. The only question is whether to let him beat bigger power forwards off the dribble or use his size to shoot over small forwards.

13. Phoenix Suns: Kendall Marshall, PG, UNC

Marshall is the best passer in this draft class. He has impeccable court vision and has the ability to get the ball to his teammates in the most creative ways.

14. Houston Rockets: Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois 

Leonard's size is going to give him problems in the NBA. Hes a seven-footer, but only 245 pounds—a human beanpole.

He gets caught out in no man's land more than he should and hasn't figured out how to utilize his size to develop an effective post move. It took him a lot of work to get to 245 pounds, which means it's going to be even harder for him to gain another 20-30 pounds.

Leonard is one of those prospects who shoots up the radar too quickly because of his size and winds up getting stuck on the bench. He's not as good of a rebounder as you would think, which is unacceptable given his height and length.

Leonard would have been better served to stay in school for one more year, but couldn't resist the promise of the NBA. He's inconsistent in his ability to hang onto the ball down low, which is concerning, as he should have learned by now how to use his height to keep defenders from forcing turnovers. He's a really raw talent, and sometimes raw talents don't develop into successful players. 

15. Philadelphia 76ers: John Henson, PF, UNC

He would be that extra piece down low that the Sixers needed this this season.

16. Houston Rockets: Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State

Lillard is one of the most electric scorers in the nation. He has Jimmer Fredette range, but a greater ability to create for himself and get to the tin. He plays pretty good defense too, using his quick hands to steal the ball from ball handlers.

17. Dallas Mavericks: Terrence Ross, SG, Washington

Ross has good height at 6'6", and that size increases his court vision in the transition game. He's a good shooter too and has an extremely high ceiling.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves: Dion Waiters, SG, Syracuse

Waiters would make a nice addition to the T'Wolves backcourt to give Ricky Rubio some help because Martell Webster isn't doing enough.

19. Orlando Magic: Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky

The Magic need somebody to come in and make an immediate impact after the Dwight Howard fiasco passes. Teague could be that guy for them.

20. Denver Nuggets: Tony Wroten, PG, Washington

The Nuggets need a backup point guard. Wroten, who has very high potential, could stand to learn a thing or two by coming off the bench for his first year.

21. Boston Celtics: Arnett Moultrie, PF, Mississippi State

Moultrie can do it all at 6'11", 225 pounds. He's quick enough to beat big men off the dribble from the perimeter, and he's tall enough to dominate shorter players down low. He plays hard, intense defense, and with some coaching, he'll be able to refine his defensive talents.

22. Boston Celtics: Quincy Miller, SF, Baylor

Miller could be the successor to Paul Pierce once his time in Boston is over.

23. Atlanta Hawks: Andrew Nicholson, PF, St. Bonaventure

Nicholson is a really smart player and is adept at setting screens. He would be a good change of pace at the power forward spot behind Josh Smith.

24. Cleveland Cavaliers: Fab Melo, C, Syracuse

I'm sure Cleveland brass would love to grab another big man so they can move Tristan Thompson to power forward and show Antawn Jamison the door.

25. Memphis Grizzlies: Moe Harkless, SF, St. John's

Harkless would be a better backup to Rudy Gay than Quincy Pondexter.

26. Indiana Pacers: Tyshawn Taylor, PG/SG, Kansas

The Pacers need a guy who can come off the bench and knock down shots. 

27. Miami Heat: Evan Fournier, SG/SF, France

Fournier is a decent shooter and much more athletic than Shane Battier and Mike Miller. He's not especially athletic, but don't the Heat have plenty of athleticism?

28. Oklahoma City Thunder, Festus Ezeli, C, Vanderbilt

The Thunder need a better backup to Kendrick Perkins than 34-year-old Nazr Mohammed.

29. Chicago Bulls, Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky

The Bulls might be best served to tank the 2012 season without Derrick Rose. At least they could get a serviceable replacement for Rip Hamilton once he's gone.

30. Golden State Warriors: Draymond Green, SF, Michigan State

Why not take a chance on Green? He's a leader, a hard worker and a special talent despite his lack of height.