5 Factors That Will Determine the NFC West

The San Francisco 49ers ran away with the NFC West in 2011, becoming the first NFL team to clinch its division before finishing a distant five games ahead of the second-place Arizona Cardinals.

Leading into 2012, the 49ers remain a heavy favorite to win the division next season. 

However, the NFL is as unpredictable on a year-to-year basis as any professional sports league, and there should be several important factors that will shape what happens in the NFC West next season. 

In the following slides, we break down the biggest factors that will help determine how the NFC West finishes next season.

Sam Bradford's Development

After a 2010 rookie season that saw him throw for 18 touchdowns and lead the St. Louis Rams to within a Week 17 win of making the NFC playoffs, quarterback Sam Bradford's 2011 season went south in a hurry. 

The numbers were down across the board for Bradford—he threw just six touchdowns over 357 attempts and completed less than 54 percent of his passes—while nagging injuries cost him six starts. And the Rams won just two games, finishing the 2011 season with the worst scoring differential in the NFL at -214. 

2012 represents a new start for both Bradford and the Rams, who proceeded to fire Steve Spagnuolo and hire veteran head coach Jeff Fisher this offseason. St. Louis then brought in Brian Schottenheimer at offensive coordinator, marking the third coordinator Bradford will work with in three years in the NFL. 

How Bradford bounces back will likely tell the story of the Rams' 2012 season.

If he's more 2010 than 2011, the Rams can make some noise in the division. But if there's very little development in year three, St. Louis should remain in the division's cellar and the decision makers will then have a big choice on their hands with Bradford moving forward. 

2012 obviously isn't do-or-die for a team coming off a two-win season, but there needs to be some steps forward, especially at the quarterback position. 

Bounce Back for Kevin Kolb?

No one could have expected the Cardinals to win eight games last season with Kevin Kolb missing almost half of the season, but that's exactly what Arizona did in 2011. While backup quarterback John Skelton wasn't good statistically in relief of Kolb, the team won seven of its last nine games with Skelton taking most of the snaps. 

However, the Cardinals need Kolb back and healthy if they expect to challenge the San Francisco 49ers for the division crown. He missed seven of the last nine games last season with various injuries (toe, head). 

And when he's on the field, Kolb needs to play considerably better than what he showed in year one with the Cardinals. 

After throwing for 309 yards and two scores (130.0 passer rating) in a season-opening win over the Carolina Panthers, Kolb cracked a passer rating of 90 or more in just two of his final eight contests. Overall, Kolb's passer rating finished at just 81.1 in 2011. 

If Kolb can put together a season that the Cardinals expected when they dealt Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second-round pick to Philadelphia for him last summer, Arizona has weapons on both sides of the ball to improve on their eight wins from a season ago. 

But if Arizona has to lean on Skelton again for stretches in 2012, it's highly unlikely that the Cardinals are going to have the same kind of fortunes in the win-loss column. For Arizona to improve, the onus is on Kolb. 

How Do New Weapons Mesh in San Francisco?

The 49ers are the class of the NFC West. A 13-3 season and a trip to the NFC Championship Game last season ensures that title to start 2012. 

While the defense remains almost entirely unchanged from a dominant 2011 group, the offensive side of the ball has a number of new faces. How those shiny new weapons mesh together with what returns on offense might dictate just how good the 49ers will be next season. 

The changes were swift and wide-reaching. 

At receiver, the 49ers lost Josh Morgan but added Randy Moss (free agent), Mario Manningham (free agent) and A.J. Jenkins (2012 first-rounder). Ted Ginn and Michael Crabtree return to a group that may now go five-deep with playmakers.

In the backfield, San Francisco will insert Brandon Jacobs (free agent) and LaMichael James (2012 second-rounder) into a group that already includes Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. Gore is still the unquestioned starter, but the 49ers will have to decide how to get the football to all the other capable hands at running back. 

There's never a problem with having too many players capable of changing games, but offensive coordinator Greg Roman has to make sure the 49ers' identity doesn't stray too far from the blueprint that got them so far last season.

How Roman tinkers and maneuvers those weapons could be the difference between a dog fight in the NFC West and eventually representing the conference in the Super Bowl. 

Year Two of Alex Smith and Jim Harbaugh

While Roman has a job to do with all the 49ers' new faces, the dynamic that will shape San Francisco's 2012 season might be the continuing relationship between Alex Smith and Jim Harbaugh. 

Year one between the two produced fantastic results, as Smith completed over 61 percent of his passes for 3,144 yards and a 17-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Smith's 90.7 passer rating was the highest of his career, and the 49ers scored 380 total points—59 higher than the next best offense in the NFC West. 

The 49ers would likely have double digit wins if Smith could produce a stat line in 2012 than looked close to his '11 season, but San Francisco fans should expect more. The weapons are in place and there should be a lingering confidence in the quarterback-coach duo after what transpired last season. 

If Smith can continue to elevate under Harbaugh—with numbers in the 4,000-yard, 25-touchdown range—the 49ers should run away with the NFC West. But if there's a regression, which certainly isn't out of the cards considering Smith's career path, the 49ers won't win the division by five games like they did in 2011. 

Quarterback Trifecta in Seattle

The Seattle Seahawks arguably had one of the NFL's most underrated defenses in 2011. A young unit that added a pair of talented players via the draft in Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner, Seattle could take the next step into the NFL's top seven or eight defenses. 

But if there's one position that will determine the Seahawks' 2012 season, it's undoubtedly what happens at quarterback. As we approach the month of June, it appears as if Seattle has three capable players at the position. 

Tarvaris Jackson returns after a better-than-expected 2011 season, especially considering a pectoral injury that lingered late.

But the leading man to take over as the starter is former Green Bay Packers backup Matt Flynn, who the Seahawks signed to a $24.5 million deal with $12 million in guaranteed money. Flynn was sensational in two starts for Aaron Rodgers and comes from a well-respected quarterback program in Green Bay. And in all reality, you don't pay that much in guaranteed money for a clipboard holder.

Finishing off the trifecta is third round pick Russell Wilson, who at 5'11" was widely considered too short by draft analysts to be franchise quarterback. However, the skill set he showed at NC State and Wisconsin screams NFL starter, and coach Pete Carroll is giving him every opportunity to prove that fact during his first summer in the NFL. 

But regardless of who starts in Seattle, one thing is certain: If the Seahawks can get consistent play from the quarterback position, this is a football team that can challenge the 49ers for the NFC West crown. 

No other roster in the division is as well-rounded. Carroll can motivate the right kind of player. And playing in Seattle is never an easy task, especially for division games. But the quarterback play has always lacked since the latter days of Matt Hasselbeck. 

If Jackson, Flynn or Wilson—or any combination of the three—produce a solid season at quarterback, there's no reason to think that Seattle can't turn the NFC West on its head by the end of 2012.