Belmont Stakes 2012: I'll Have Another's Only Opponent Is Himself

We might as well give the 2012 Triple Crown to I'll Have Another, because his only legitimate opponent at Belmont is himself.

Entering the third leg on four straight victories (two before Kentucky), I'll Have Another was virtually unknown until Churchill Downs. Now, jockey Mario Gutierrez has taken center stage and the Triple Crown is I'll Have Another's to lose.

With history expected to be made in less than two weeks, the 2012 Belmont Stakes is a race between the favorite and the pressure that comes with being the favorite.

Full view of 2012 Belmont Stakes contenders.

Lack of Competition

Neither Bodemeister nor Creative Cause are racing at Belmont (according to the contender list sourced above) and those two horses were the best competition for I'll Have Another.

The only other horse we'll see out of the gates at Belmont that has raced in the first two legs is Optimizer. Unfortunately for the field, Optimizer didn't impress as he took eleventh and sixth place in Kentucky and Baltimore, respectively.

Dullahan is the next best horse as he finished third at Churchill Downs but was not present at Pimlico. In order to match I'll Have Another, consistency is arguably the most important factor. Both Bodemeister and Creative Cause finished in the top five through the first two legs, so despite their absence opening the door for other contenders, none are on I'll Have Another's level.

Expectation

I'll Have Another is the obvious favorite by a wide margin, which makes his only competition himself. Prior to the Triple Crown gates opening in Kentucky, jockey Mario Gutierrez rode to two consecutive prep race wins in Santa Anita.

Those victories lead to increased confidence and momentum to pull off the upset in Kentucky and prove the skeptics wrong at Pimlico. Now, I'll Have Another and Gutierrez have that first-place expectation to live up to.

That was not the case before, and with no Triple Crown winners since 1978, the pressure is certainly on.

Track Length

The Kentucky Derby is 10 furlongs in length, the Preakness is 9.5 furlongs and the Belmont Stakes is 12 furlongs.

Looking back at the first two legs of the Triple Crown, I'll Have Another won Churchill Downs by a slightly wider margin than Pimlico. The reason why Gutierrez was able to take another victory was because of I'll Have Another's closing speed and the strategy didn't change.

Exploding out of the gates and getting into the front pack, I'll Have Another just cruised along with the top contenders before making a move during the final turn. There's no reason to change that approach and staying true will lead to a greater victory at Belmont.

That said, if we're getting technical, I'll Have Another's only other opponent is the track's length. It will certainly challenge his stamina and focus, but Gutierrez is well prepared to control the race from the start.

John Rozum on Twitter.