2009 New York Mets Rotation: All the Way or No Way at All?

With the recent resigning of Oliver Perez, combined with the announcement from General Manager Omar Minaya that they will head into Spring Training “as is”, it’s time to break down the Mets’ rotation as it stands now.

This rotation would consist of the following: Johan Santana as the ace, followed by Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and either Tim Redding, Jon Niese, or even Freddy Garcia, which will be determined through Spring Training. As with most pitchers, each of them has their own strengths and weaknesses. Let’s break them down:

Johan Santana

Strengths: A devastating array of pitches, most notably his fastball-change-up combination. Last season, Santana led the Mets in ERA, with a scant 2.53. Santana has also proven that he is a dominant second-half pitcher, as he did not suffer a loss after the All-Star Break.

Weaknesses: Though few, Santana is not immune to giving up a home run or two during a start (just ask Felix Hernandez), as he is considered a fly-ball pitcher. Though he did not lose against the rival Phillies, this weakness may come into play at Citizen’s Bank Park.

Mike Pelfrey

Strengths: Pelfrey has shown that he is developing into quite the ground-ball pitcher, as he has developed a “low and heavy” sinker, according to pitching coach Dan Warthen. Also, at age 25, Pelfrey may have quite the career ahead of him.

Weaknesses: One of his strengths may also be a weakness: his youth. In his three years of Major League experience, he only logged a 200-inning season once: last year.

John Maine

Strengths: Maine has shown that he has the stuff to be a quality middle of the rotation starter, going 15-10 with a 3.91 ERA in 2007. His youth shows promise, much like his teammates Pelfrey and Oliver Perez.

Weaknesses: Maine is coming off a tough, injury-riddled 2008, where he managed a 10-8 mark with an ERA at 4.18. His season was cut short due to a bone spur in his right arm. With this past season, some have said that Maine is a potential breakdown candidate. It is hard to say whether Mets fans will get the Maine of 2007 or of 2008.

Oliver Perez

Strengths: Perez can be a dominate starter, who can rack up the strikeouts with a devastating fastball, as he struck out a career-high 239 in 2004 with the Pirates. With the Mets, Perez has blossomed muck like his teammate John Maine, as he too had a 15-10 record in 2007.

Weaknesses: His consistency. One day Perez could strike out 12 batters in seven innings of work, while the next he cannot get out of the first inning. This was most noticeable when playing contenders and non-contenders. Perez could defeat the Phillies and the Yankees, but struggled against the Nationals. It’s difficult to say how much impact having Dan Warthen as a coach for the full season will have on Perez’s consistency.

Tim Redding/Jon Niese/Freddy Garcia

Strengths: Redding is the proverbial “work-horse” of the three, going to the sixth inning 18 times for the Nationals, who scored the third-fewest runs in the National League. Niese brings youth to the fifth spot, with an age of 22. Freddy Garcia brings experience to this slot, with 10 years of Major League experience, and has a World Series championship with the White Sox.

Weaknesses: Though Redding can get to the 6th inning, one has to wonder if his career 34-51 record with a 4.92 ERA is due to the teams he was with or if it is him. Niese has not had much experience, but what he has is a 1-1 record with a gaudy 7.07 ERA. Garcia’s biggest problem is that he has not been able to avoid the injury bug, as his last season with 30 or more starts and 200 or more innings pitched was 2006.

With each of these starters’ strengths and shortcomings expressed, how will the rotation fare in 2009? If the Mets hope to give Philly a run for its money, it is imperative that they stay healthy for the majority of the season. Barring any devastating season-ending injury, the Mets rotation should shape up to be one of the top of the National League.

Source: MLB.com