NBA Draft 2012: Predicting Which Teams the Ping Pong Balls Will Betray

The NBA draft lottery is scheduled to take place on May 30. That's the day when the lottery teams will figure out where they'll select in the draft.

Since the order is decided by a lottery, the results tend to vary from year to year. Some years, the worst team does end up with the top selection, while other years a back-end lottery team gets lucky enough to be drawn for the top selection.

With luck and probability factoring into the equation, it's impossible to predict exactly how it will turn out. With that said, there are a few trends to pay attention to, as there are some teams that repeatedly do well in the lottery. Likewise, there are also franchises that historically don't do well.

I've scored each lottery team's finishes since the 2000-01 season. If a team selected higher than its projected slot, then they get one point. If a team selected lower than its projected slot, then it loses one point. If a team selects in its projected slot, then it's a push, which is worth zero points.

These are the teams that have not fared well in the lottery in the past. And if the past tells us anything, it's that these are the teams that likely won't fair well in this year's lottery.

Toronoto Raptors

The Raptors did get lucky in the 2006 lottery. That season the Raptors finished 27-55—the fifth-worst record in the NBA. Despite having the fifth-worst record, the Raptors were able to win the lottery and select Andrea Bargnani with the top pick.

Outside of that one year, the Raptors have been unlucky in the lottery. Since the 2000-01 season, the Raptors have finished with one of the 10 worst records six times. But in those six years, they've managed to select worse than their projected slot twice (in 2003 and 2011)

The Raptors also pushed, or selected in their projected slot, three times. Their only year of selecting ahead of their projected slot was the aforementioned 2006 draft.

Score: Minus-1

Milwaukee Bucks

Like the Raptors, the Bucks have had one very lucky season in the lottery. In the 2004-05 season, the Bucks finished with the sixth-worst record and were lucky enough to win the draft lottery. They selected Andrew Bogut with the pick.

But outside of that one year, the Bucks haven't fared too well in the lottery. They've been one of the 10 worst teams five times since the 2000-01 season. During that span, the Bucks have only selected higher than their projected slot two times (2003 and 2005).

Milwaukee has been drawn worse than its projected slot three times (2007, 2008, 2009).

Score: Minus-1

New Orleans Hornets

The Hornets have never gotten much of a break in the lottery. That could be because the Hornets have never really been bad enough to select high in the draft, as they've generally been a mid-level team. That said, the onetime New Orleans Hornets were bad enough to garner a top selection; the ping pong balls were not kind.

In 2004-05 the Hornets finished with the second-worst record at 18-64. However, they were unlucky in the lottery and ended up selecting fourth overall. But they still were able to get a quality player when they selected Chris Paul.

The Hornets are in line for the fourth overall pick this year. But if history repeats itself, then they'll likely be selecting lower in the lottery.

Score: Minus-1

Golden State Warriors

Golden State, like the Hornets, have been a lottery team—but a back-end lottery team for much of the past decade. Because of this, they haven't been able to select very high in the draft. The few times they were in line for a top selection, bad luck ended up dropping them further down the draft.

Compounding the issue is the fact that the Warriors made the situation even worse with bad selections in the top 10, like Mike Dunleavy and Patrick O'Bryant

In the 2000-01 season and the 2001-02 season, the Warriors had the second-worst record both times. Despite that, they ended up picking worse than their projected slot. The same thing happened in the 2010 draft lottery for the Warriors.

The best luck the Warriors have had in the lottery is when they pushed in 2005, 2006 and 2009.

Score: Minus-3

Sacramento Kings

As a lifelong Kings fan, I can relate firsthand to the pains of repeated bad luck in the draft lottery. And unfortunately, the Kings have had more bad luck in the draft lottery than any other team in this year's lottery, which is remarkable considering the Kings weren't even in the lottery (because they made the postseason from 98-99 through 05-06) until following the 2006-07 season.

I remember enduring the horrendous 17-65 season of 2008-09 when the Kings finished with the worst record in the NBA. At the time, my thought process was "Well, at least the Kings will get the top pick and select Blake Griffin."

Little did I know that the Kings are absolutely snakebit when it comes to the draft lottery.

The Kings ended up selecting fourth overall in the 2009 draft (their worst possible slot), despite finishing with the worst record. The Kings also selected lower than their projected slot in 2007, 2010 and 2011. On top of that, they never were lucky enough to pick higher than projected or even push. Now that's incredibly bad luck.

The "gambler's fallacy" would lead me to believe that the Kings are due for some good luck this time around. But after the Tim Donaghy debacle in the 2002 playoffs, the repeated bad luck in the lottery and the team's seemingly imminent move out of Sacramento, I'm done expecting the team's luck to turn. This year just figures to be another year of the Kings selecting lower than their projected slot.

Score: Minus-4

The Lucky Teams

Just for fun, here are the teams in this year's lottery that are typically lucky.

Charlotte Bobcats

The Bobcats have had some luck in their short history. After drafting below their projected slot in the 2005 draft, the Bobcats drafted above their projected slot in 2006, 2007 and 2008. If history repeats itself, then the Bobcats will be selecting No. 1 in the draft.

Score: Plus-2

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs pushed when they selected LeBron James with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2003 draft. Then they selected higher than projected in the 2011 draft, getting the No. 1 overall pick even though they were projected to select No. 2. They selected lower than projected in 2001 and pushed every other year they were in the lottery.

Score: 0

Washington Wizards

The Wiz got lucky when they won the lottery in 2010 and 2001. However, they were unlucky in 2011 and 2004, giving them a score of zero.

Score: 0

Portland Trailblazers

The Blazers were lucky to win the lottery in 2007. Yet they were unlucky in selecting the oft-injured Greg Oden. Portland ended up selecting worse than projected in 2005, to give them a score of zero.

Score: 0