London 2012: Plot Lines for Tennis Men's Singles

This year, the games are in London and will be played at the hallowed courts of Wimbledon.

Even though it is 'early' and we have yet to go through Roland Garros and Wimbly, here are nine slides with the twists, turns, plot lines, over looked angles, and realistic expectations we should see regardless of what happens at those Slams (barring injury or any unforeseen setback); from this July 28th - Aug 5th at the 30th Olympiad.

The Grass at SW19

All laughing and joking aside of World No. 1 Novak Djokovic immediately ingesting a few blades of the sod after winning the Wimbledon Championship last year, an important question is how the grass will hold up for the Olympic Games with such a quick turnaround after the Wimbledon fortnight.

Tennis is a fascinating sport where the intangibles can turn a match to favor one player over the other. Sometimes it is the wind, altitude, ball or even the playing style, but the biggest X-factor of all is the surface.

We have seen the difference in quality of the lawn from the first couple days to the final weekend. By the end, patches of dead, yellow turf are mixed in with various chunks missing—especially on the non-show courts.

Wimbledon has been scheduled to be played till July 8, and the Olympics start a little under three weeks later on the 28th. Is that enough turnover time for the surface to return to the pristine condition that the grounds crew painstakingly takes 50 weeks to prepare?

Although the other courts are in use year-round, Centre Court and Court No. 1 are only played on during the two-week tournament. Never have those two courts been used so much in a six-week span, so it is venturing into uncharted territory.

At least the grass will be pre-germinated because we would hate for the results of the semis or finals to be dictated by a funny bounce.

What It Means for the Future Hall of Famers

There are at least six sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famers that still compete on the ATP tour—Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, Roddick, Hewitt, Ferrero.

Of them, only the first three have a realistic shot at grabbing the golden prize. Having said that, with all that those three have accomplished in their careers, what would adding a gold medal mean on an already sterling résumé?

Rafael Nadal would be the first man in a century to win two gold medals for singles. That feat would undoubtedly be difficult to duplicate, since it means you'd have to be on top of the game for at least a five-year span.

Like Nadal, Roger Federer has won each of the Grand Slams, but he's also won the most majors. Becoming the first player in a century to win a gold in singles in addition to his doubles gold would be the icing on the cake.

It would also serve as an additional reminder to the forgetful from talking about his "Slam Drought" and paltry win/loss record against his rivals. This could be the perfect sendoff to one of the legendary careers in all of sports.

If Novak Djokovic wins the French Open this year along with the gold medal, he would complete not only a career Golden Slam (something Nadal has already done) but he would have done it in a little over one full year—something only the legendary Steffi Graf has accomplished.

Although this would not be in the same calendar year unless he goes on to win Wimbledon and the U.S. Open too. Moreover, since the Olympics are being played after Wimbledon, he will have accomplished the feat in 13 months, not 12 like Graf.

Meanwhile, Andy Murray is still only 25 and has quite a bit of career left in front of him. If he wins the gold medal in his native Great Britain, the Union Jack will be proud.

No Fernando Means Open Door

Now, although he was a former Top Five player and Grand Slam finalist, Fernando Gonzalez will be first to tell you that regardless of the fact that he possessed a forehand that packed a punch that could shock Mike Tyson, he was still light years behind contemporaries like Federer and his elder compatriot—the former World No.1 Marcelo Rios—in terms of sheer talent.

But he always shined brightest when he donned the Chilean colors at the Olympics.

Gonzalez, the silver medalist from the 2008 Games, will not be making an appearance at the events this summer due to his retirement after the Masters 1000 event in Miami in March, retiring with a respectable 11 career titles.

El Bombardero de La Reina remains the sole athlete in the last century to win the bronze, silver and gold Medals in men's tennis. Sure, he bagged his gold at doubles, but it was the first gold that Chile had ever won in any sport. Moreover, it was not like he was "carried" to the top either, since he was partnered with journeyman Nicolas Massu.

At 31 years old, Mano de Piedra can still put a charge into the draw in a best-of-three match on his day and is one of those players that step up big at certain tournaments.

His absence definitely opens up the field ever so slightly for the rest of the pack that are not a part of "The Big Four."

Dark Horses and Their Odds

Let's be honest with ourselves for a moment. In any ATP tournament that matters, if you're not ranked in the top four, you are considered an outsider with a puncher's chance at best. However, at a tournament that is known as an "exhibition" with minimal ranking points and a best-of-three set format, the tide can certainly swing and favor the underdog.

As we have seen in the past, the Olympics can bring out the best in athletes, and men's tennis is no different. Since 2000 alone, we have watched players named Arnaud di Pasquale, Nicolas Massu and, yes, even Mardy Fish win medals in singles.

This year, the field is stocked full of very talented players that can beat anyone on any given day. Using the odds given by William Hill (one of the largest bookmakers in the UK), we will check each realistic possibility out.

Grass tournaments have had their share of fluke runs, usually a player armed with a big serve, so no one can be counted out. Ah, the beauty that is sports. 

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (France): 20/1

Grand Slam Finalist, former Top Five, currently World No. 8. Needs to cut down the unforced errors, and maybe we will see the game he displayed when he dispatched Federer out of Wimbledon last year.

Juan Martin del Potro (Argentina): 16/1

US Open Champion, former No. 4, currently No. 9. He can beat anyone on his day, but the skidding nature of the grass could prove to be difficult to keep control of for his 6'6" frame.

Tomas Berdych (Czech Republic): 33/1

Wimbledon Finalist, current No. 7 . Strong serve and forehand but lacks a bit in the mental department, which has kept him from penetrating the Big Four.  

John Isner (USA): 33/1

Big server with a 2011 Grass title, current No. 32. The best chance for the Americans to grab a Medal, but has never managed to get past the 2nd Round at Wimbledon.  

Milos Raonic (Canada): 25/1

A young huge server with an even bigger game sitting at No. 22. Very talented but a savvy veteran can force him to make blunders.

Andy Roddick (USA): 50/1

Former World No. 1 and current No. 27. Determined to leave his mark on the game, and a Medal would do wonders for his unfulfilled career. He still feels he has the game to compete with the best, and a positive mental attitude is huge.

Bernard Tomic (Australia): 50/1

Current No. 28. Another young gun with the pressure of a continent on his shoulders. A teenager that will be a force for the next 10 years, but not just yet.  

David Ferrer (Spain): 100/1

Current No. 6. A tenacious player who will never quit. Does not have the weapons to compete with the front runners but can still shock anyone if they are caught off-guard. 

Lleyton Hewitt (Australia): 150/1

The gritty former World No. 1 who knows his best days are behind him. Or do his sneakers still have some magic left? If his run at the Australian Open was a sign, we could be in store for a surprise.

Turncoats?

When Greg Rusedski defected from Canada in 1995, he was called an outright modern-day Benedict Arnold. How could he turn his back on his birthplace, the country that nurtured his gifts, and then take those very same skills and play for a country across the pond?

Some accused him of forsaking Canada solely for the potential lucrative endorsements that being a British citizen could only bring.

17 years later, here we go again. Sort of.

Alex Bogomolov, a journeyman 29-year-old who originally hailed from Russia, grew up here in the United States but languished in the rankings till a late career surge has propelled him to a career best ranking in the 30s.

Unfortunately, that was not deemed good enough to consistently compete for a spot in the American Davis Cup squad or even a spot in the fabled Olympic Games. So he did what was in his rights and joined his motherland home, Russia.

He is still a dual Russian/United States citizen and has every right to play for Russia if he so chooses.

Logically, if Team A doesn't want you but Team B does, and you really want to play, wouldn't you go with the latter?

Because of his decision, the USTA wants him to pay them money for all the financing and support he received from them over the years. It is easy to understand where they are coming from, but when Ivan Lendl, Martina Navratilova, Monica Seles, and countless others started to play for America - no one heard any uproar from the USTA.

I'm sure his story is not the only one out there, but the reaction he receives—especially if he draws an American—will be intriguing to see.

Recovery Time

Having the end of Wimbledon and the start of the Olympics only a couple weeks apart, several tournaments that are held between July and the start of the U.S. Open in August could suffer. Not just minor ones like Stuttgart, but Masters 1000 events like Canada and Cincinnati might have to endure a lean year as well.

Players such as Roger Federer have been pacing themselves all year, picking and choosing which tournaments to enter, in order to be fresh for the Olympics.

Getting ready for the U.S. Open is no different, and some of the tune-up tournaments may not have all the seeds competing since they may want that extra recovery time to be in top shape for the final Grand Slam of the season.

Fed Express' Most Important Delivery

With Federer's illustrious résumé, it is shocking to see any type of glaring omission.

The formula has generally held true over the past decade: Fed comes. Fed sees. Fed conquers.

However, at the Olympics, he has mysteriously faltered on multiple occasions at singles, having never gotten past the semifinals (2000). Last time, in 2008, he was ousted in straight sets by the American James Blake in the quarterfinals.

With the much younger Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray entering the Games as the presumptive favorites, the Swiss understands that this is his last realistic shot at bagging his much desired gold in singles.

In fact, ESPN's Pam Shriver reported that when she "asked him what he wants most this year: winning a major, reclaiming No. 1 or winning the gold medal. Federer didn't hesitate: 'The gold medal,' he said."

From a career retrospect, when stacked against his peers, he owns a losing record against Nadal and Murray and does not want to go down in history as the only one of the Big Four to have never gotten a singles gold medal. It might haunt him, but it will hurt his chances in the debate of the greatest of all time. He wants to win the grand prize the most.

However, even though it is being played on the surface he has had the most success on—and at his favorite venue—sadly, he is not the same player he was three or four years ago when he was gobbling up Grand Slams.

He seems to have been having more success on slower surfaces as the faster ones do not suit him any longer since they favor the power hitters and speedier players.

He never owned a gigantic serve and didn't possess lightning quick speed—he was more of a genius technician, and so even if the unbridled desire is there, is the body willing now that he has gotten physically slower on a surface that requires fast reflexes?

I think not.

Will the Wimbledon Champion Repeat at the Olympics?

Though it would be easy to point and say "of course," let's wait on that for a moment.

Winning Wimbledon, undoubtedly, is a feat that only a select few will ever know the feeling of accomplishing. But as was said in the previous slides, will the grass and recovery time become a large factor? Furthermore, what about the different type of pressure that will be involved in playing for your country rather than yourself? Will knowing that one will not get paid not want a player to go that 'extra mile?'

As I've stressed before, the Olympics is a whole new ball game - different amount of players, lesser sets, and perhaps more importantly - a certainly new pressure never felt by most.

True, many of the top players have experience facing the pressure that comes with playing under their flags with the Davis Cup team. However, the Davis Cup is simply just that - a trophy that one can win each year, played in a round robin format against only some countries, often times in your home nation, and more importantly is a team prize. Additionally, many high ranking players do not even compete; something which we will not see in London.

Playing a singles match at the Olympics is vastly different in the sense that you are playing by yourself for the honor of your country. Moreover, rankings and points aside, becoming an Olympic medalist is a big deal. Ask anyone who has trained their whole lives for that one moment in the sun. Since tennis is more of a spectator sport, when one is saddled with the hopes and dreams of millions on the shoulders in addition to their own nerves, as they sling their racquet into the ball it is not a feeling that too many will break through and conquer.

Expected Results

Although the draw has not been set yet, some things are certain:

• There will be 64 men (top 56 ranked in the world) entered in the singles draw with at the most four coming from one nation (with apologies to Spain).
• The final eight slots will be made up of six players selected by the ITF and two from the IOC.
• Best-of-three-sets matches, except for the finals, which will be contested in a best-of-five sets.
• No final set tiebreak.
• The players competing had to have played Davis Cup in either 2009 or 2010 and 2011 or 2012.
• Almost all of the players in the top 30 will be competing for their country.
• Andy Murray is the hometown favorite and will be getting cheap pops.

Although this is Andy Murray's crowd, grass is not his strongest surface. Nevertheless, I do feel the pull of the audience can lead Murray to go pretty deep in the tournament.

But Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic know how to play against the audience in big matches, so the intangibles that the fans bring will be null and void when playing against them.

Having said that, Murray, Nadal, and Djokovic should be in the semifinals along with a player that will have upset Federer.

The pick is the Czech, Tomas Berdych—a very talented player with a certain mercurial disposition. He is a Wimbledon finalist (2010) and will not back down from anyone.

However, beating two of the Big 4 en route to a title is a daunting task for any mortal, so I predict (surprise, surprise) Nadal in the finals against either Djokovic or Murray, depending on how the draw is set up.

Interestingly enough, if Nadal falls to World No. 3 (as he did before the Italian Open), we could end up seeing Djokovic in his draw, which would open the road up for Murray or Berdych. But with Nadal's track record at the French Open and Wimbledon, that scenario may be a bit far-fetched, and we should see him in the top two.

Murray may crumble/self destruct in the semifinals against either Nadal or Djokovic, but he should win over Berdych in a bronze medal match that goes the distance with a raucous crowd showering him with vociferous support.

Rafael Nadal can be seen winning the finals in four hard-fought sets. I feel that the grass will not be in as pristine condition as it will be at the start of Wimbledon, and the dirtier it gets, the slower it will be, which favors Rafa over Nole.

Gold: Nadal

Silver: Djokovic

Bronze: Murray