MLB: 10 Things We Now Know at the Quarter Mark of the Season

Over the course of a Major League Baseball season many predictions are spewed out, and only a few of them can be deemed accurate when a team is finally hoisting the World Series championship in October. This article is about how some of my predictions in March have gone horribly wrong.

From the Baltimore Orioles being the surprise team in baseball to the alarming number of big market teams sporting losing records, this year has proved it's almost impossible to predict a MLB season in March.

Here is a look at some of the things I've learned at the quarter mark of the year.

The Texas Rangers Still Own the American League West

In my AL West preview, I said that there would be a changing of the guard as the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim would dethrone the Texas Rangers.

I had thought that a line of .379 with 18 home runs and 47 runs batted in would be coming from the bat of Albert Pujols, but instead that man has been Josh Hamilton. While Hamilton has been one of the forces that has proved me wrong so far, he hasn't been doing it by himself.

The Rangers boast the top pitching staff in the American League (3.23 ERA), and Joe Nathan has been able to regain the velocity on his fastball in his second year back from Tommy John surgery.

Perhaps the Rangers biggest surprise has been Yu Darvish. Darvish has looked nothing like the failed Daisuke Matsuzaka experiment in Boston, as he's gone 6-2 with a 3.05 ERA. The argument could be made that Darvish is a current front runner for American League Rookie of the Year and making some people believe that signing him over Prince Fielder was the right move.

The performances by Hamilton, Darvish, and the rest of the Rangers have made them the best team in baseball.

The Detroit Tigers Did Not Win the AL Central in February

For teams in the American League Central, the window of opportunity seemed to open once Victor Martinez tore his ACL and was ruled out for the entire 2012 season.

Just a couple weeks later, the door seemed to be slammed shut when Prince Fielder signed a nine-year, $214 million contract with the Detroit Tigers. With an offense seemingly guaranteed to score runs and a pitching staff that included Justin Verlander and Jose Valverde, the Tigers were given the weak Central division in March.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, they currently sit in second place of the AL Central with a record of 20-22. So what's caused the Tigers to find themselves looking up at the Cleveland Indians?

Well, Fielder's performance has been not been up to his standards. His overall line of .301 with seven home runs and 24 runs batted in hasn't been terrible, but his OPS (.851) is 75 points lower than his career average. It seems as if Comerica Park has claimed another victim.

Also, the Tigers have been unable to pitch. Aside from Justin Verlander, the Tigers pitching staff has been wildly inconsistent and ranked in the bottom half of the American League in ERA (4.17 is good for 10th in the AL).

It's likely the Tigers will come back and win the division, but it's not going to be as easy as some people had predicted.

The Kansas City Royals Were Not Ready to Contend

Every year, writers will try to predict in what year the Kansas City Royals will finally return to relevance. In my case, I predicted that 2012 would be that season.

Unfortunately, things haven't gone as planned for the Royals, as they find themselves 4th in the American League with a 17-25 record.

Many things have derailed my predicted third-place finish for the team, but the biggest may be the sophomore slump of first baseman Eric Hosmer.

After finishing third in the American League Rookie of the Year voting in 2011, Hosmer has struggled mightily, hitting just .174 this season. His power numbers are still there in terms of home runs (five) and runs batted in (20), but his slugging percentage is a measly .316.

The Royals have also seen injuries cripple their season, as catcher Salvy Perez suffered a knee injury in spring training (expected to be back in June) and closer Joakim Soria wound up needing Tommy John surgery and missing the entire season.

The Royals have the young players to eventually build a contender in Kansas City, but 2012 is not the year it's going to happen.

The Dodgers Are More Than Just Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw

The Los Angeles Dodgers were predicted to finish fourth in the National League West, but have surged to be the best team in baseball at 29-13. I probably should have seen this coming, as the Dodgers came into the season with the Cy Young winner (Clayton Kershaw) and the MVP runner-up (Matt Kemp).

However, the Dodgers have become a strong team all around. The sale of the team to a group that includes Magic Johnson has added a jolt of excitement to the franchise, and the product on the field has shown that.

The rest of the pitching staff has been spectacular for the Dodgers, as Ted Lilly has been able to give Kershaw the perfect compliment by going 5-0 with a 1.79 ERA.

The bullpen has also worked well after a closer switch, and the Dodgers have the pieces to not only win the NL West, but make a playoff run as well.

The Cincinnati Reds Are Contenders After All

In spring training, the Cincinnati Reds had the look of a contender. In my eyes, the Reds had a loaded lineup that could be backed by a decent pitching staff and a revamped back end of the bullpen with the additions of Ryan Madson and Sean Marshall.

With that, I picked the Reds to win the National League Central, and some people thought it was a ridiculous choice. The Reds had some problems early, but they adapted to chase the St. Louis Cardinals for control of the division.

The Reds finally made the decision to move Aroldis Chapman into the closer role, and their offense can still score some runs in the hitters' ballpark that is Great American Ballpark.

With the Cardinals getting the news of Lance Berkman's possibly torn ACL, the Reds have a chance to win the division for the second time in three seasons.

Bryce Harper and the Washington Nationals Are for Real

Whether you love or hate Bryce Harper's arrogance, you have to agree that he belongs at the major league level.

After the Nationals struggled to score runs during the early part of the season, the Nationals pulled the trigger on bringing Harper to the show in early May. Since then, Harper has hit .256 with two home runs and seven runs batted in.

Although Harper has shown a little bit of frustration, he's clearly a player cut from a different cloth. Harper hustles just as much on a ground ball to the pitcher as he does on a hard hit ball to the gap.

Harper is going to be a superstar for a long time in Major League Baseball, and it looks as if he will be in the running for National League Rookie of the Year like I predicted in March.

The Houston Astros Aren't Baseball's Worst Team

It seemed like the Houston Astros were a slam dunk to be the worst team in baseball at the beginning of the season. However, the Astros have turned their last season in the National League into a going away party.

It's too early to start planning a parade in downtown Houston for the Astros, but they've gone from a completely unknown team that seemed destined for the number one pick in the 2013 MLB Draft to a .500 baseball team.

One of the big reasons for the Astros' resurgence has been second baseman Jose Altuve, who could become the team's representative at the All-Star game. They've also moved Brett Myers back to the bullpen, which has resulted in 11 saves.

With a solid bullpen and a couple prospects to build around, the Astros may not be going to the woodshed in 2013 when they move to the American League West.

It's Too Early to Make Matt Moore's Hall of Fame Plaque

In most baseball previews, Matt Moore was the borderline unanimous pick to win American League Rookie of the Year. As we pass the quarter mark of the season, we're left to wonder "What were we thinking?"

Moore dazzled in his September/October debut last season, registering a 1-0 record with a 2.89 earned run average and seven shutout innings against the Texas Rangers in game one of the American League Divisional Series.

However, Moore hasn't been able to translate that success into 2012. Entering May 23, Moore has gone 1-4 with a 5.07 ERA.

This start has made it seem like he is miles away from winning AL Rookie of the Year, and the Rays have to be concerned after giving him a five-year, $14 million contract extension last season.

There are several things that could be wrong with Matt Moore, but he has to make adjustments as teams adjust to him. It's likely that Moore will be able to rebound from his bad start and have a solid career. It will be interesting to see how he reacts to his first taste of adversity.

Big Spending Doesn't Translate into Big Winners

In recent offseasons, free spending by several major league teams represented a substantial growth in the win column. In 2012, that theory has gone out the window as the top five teams in payroll all have losing records as of May 23.

The New York Yankees ($197.9 million), Philadelphia Phillies ($174.5 million), Boston Red Sox ($173.1 million), Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim ($154.4 million), and Detroit Tigers ($132.3 million) are a combined 103-113 and find themselves toward the bottom of their respective divisions.

In fact, the average payroll of all six division leaders (Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Cleveland Indians, Baltimore Orioles) is $94.5 million, which would rank for 14th in baseball behind the Minnesota Twins (who at $94 million currently own baseball's second worst record at 15-27).

It always seems like the teams with the highest payrolls tend to turn it on as the season crawls along, but it may be enough to curb some teams' enthusiasm when going after free agents.

Oh, Josh Hamilton is a free agent next offseason? Never mind.

The Baltimore Orioles Are Not a Last Place Team

When I was writing my AL East preview in March, I couldn't think of much to say about the Baltimore Orioles and their chances in a loaded division. So after complimenting the return of the Oriole Bird to their uniforms, I declared them the whipping boy in the American League East:

As of this writing, the Orioles have gone 28-16 and currently lead the division by two games over the predicted division winner Tampa Bay Rays.

The biggest swing and miss may have been when I discussed the Orioles lackluster starting rotation:

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Jake Arrieta is currently tabbed to be the Opening Day starter, but he had an earned run average north of five last season. The Orioles will also hope that Brian Matusz and a plethora of young arms realize their potential.

This dearth of pitching should cost the Orioles dearly, to the point of J.J. Hardy's bombs not being able to save them from a last-place finish.

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Well, the Orioles' arms have realized their potential, as they rank fourth in the American League with a 3.58 earned run average. They also may have one of the most dominant closers in the game in Jim Johnson, who is a perfect 16-for-16 in save opportunities.

Mix in an offense that has been lead by Adam Jones MVP-like efforts (.307 with 14 home runs, 29 runs batted in and .953 OPS), and the Orioles could ride the early-season momentum into late season contention.