Josh Hamilton vs. Felix Hernandez: Breaking Down the Huge Matchup

There's a pretty good pitching matchup lined up at Safeco Field on Monday night for the first game of a three-game series between the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners. Yu Darvish will take the mound for the Rangers, and Felix Hernandez will toe the rubber for the Mariners.

With a pitching matchup like that, the odds are good that Monday night's game will be a tight one. Between the two pitchers, however, there's considerably more pressure on Hernandez to get the job done.

This is partially because King Felix hasn't been so kingly in his last two starts. He allowed four runs on 11 hits in 6.2 innings against the New York Yankees on May 11th, and eight runs (six earned) on 10 hits in 3.2 innings against the Cleveland Indians on May 16th.

He'll be looking to get back on track on Monday night after watching his ERA climb from 1.89 to 3.02 over his last two starts.

There's also more pressure on Hernandez because he'll be facing MLB's most explosive lineup. The Rangers lead the league in runs, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and they're led by the great Josh Hamilton.

Monday just so happens to be Hamilton's 31st birthday. My guess is that he'd like nothing more than to celebrate with a few hard-hit balls off one of the American League's best starting pitchers.

It's a pretty intriguing individual matchup, no doubt about that. Let's see if we can't break it down and determine who has the edge.

History

Hamilton has not, for the record, enjoyed a whole lot of success in his career against King Felix.

Per Baseball-Reference.com, Hamilton owns a .195 batting average against Hernandez, with eight hits in 41 at-bats. He's struck out 11 times against him.

The good news? Four of Hamilton's eight career hits off of Hernandez have gone for extra-bases, including one home run (it came in 2010).

Nonetheless, the edge clearly goes to Hernandez, and it doesn't help that Hamilton has never hit all that well at Safeco Field. He's a .233 hitter in 28 games at Seattle's home park. 

Not surprisingly, Hernandez has pitched very well at Seattle. He owns a 3.15 career ERA pitching at home for the Mariners, and he has a razor-thin 0.78 ERA at Safeco this season, with a .165 opponents' batting average to boot.

Given how poorly his last two starts have gone, a little home cooking is just what King Felix needs.

How Hamilton Can Be Beat

Though he hasn't hit Hernandez well in his career, it bodes well for Hamilton that he's at least facing a right-handed pitcher. Hamilton has crushed right-handers this season, as he's hitting .391/.464/.859 off of righties.

Per ESPN.com (Insider access required), right-handers haven't really been successful with any particular pitch against Hamilton. He's batting .382 against righty fastballs, .325 against righty curveballs and .432 against righty sliders.

The good news for Hernandez is that, like all hitters, Hamilton is not perfect. There are few pitches inside the strike zone he can't handle, but he will expand the zone from time to time.

Hamilton has three key chase areas: up high, down low and inside.

Hernandez has the stuff to get Hamilton out with pitches up high and down low. It's not hard to imagine him challenging Hamilton with high fastballs after getting ahead in the count, and Hernandez gets hitters to chase off-speed pitches in the dirt as well as any pitcher in baseball. His changeup and curveball are both deadly two-strike weapons.

To get to two strikes, expect Hernandez to pound the outside corner with fastballs. Per FanGraphs, that's where he's been going after lefties this season, and he definitely has the fastball to get the job done.

How Hernandez Can Be Beat

Though Hamilton is a great hitter, he's not exactly the most patient hitter under the sun. He sees about as many pitches per plate appearance as Brennan Boesch and Delmon Young.

Hamilton's aggressiveness has worked out just fine, however. He's hitting .485 with four home runs when he swings at the first pitch, and .400 with four home runs when he's down in the count 0-1, according to Baseball-Reference.com.

It just so happens that these are counts that have tended to get King Felix in trouble this season. Hitters are hitting .419 off him when the count is 0-0, .333 when the count is 0-1, and .421 off him when the count is 1-0. All of this is once again according to Baseball-Reference.com.

This isn't much of a surprise, of course. Hernandez is a strike-thrower, and has been for several years now. It's what allows him to go deep into games on such a consistent basis. But on occasion, it can get him into trouble.

It's a good bet that Hamilton will look to stay aggressive against Hernandez. If he swings early in the count, the numbers suggest he's going to do well.

The Short Version

Overall, the advantage goes to Hernandez. He has history on his side when it comes to the matchup between himself and Hamilton, and he's going to have Hamilton dead to rights if he can get the count in his favor.

Hernandez is very good at getting hitters to chase, and Hamilton is a guy who will chase on occasion.

However, Hernandez is going to have to switch things up a bit if he wants to be better safe than sorry. He usually looks to get ahead early and then bury hitters quickly, and that approach is dangerous given Hamilton's success when he swings early in the count.

Hernandez isn't going to do anything too drastic (i.e. throwing consecutive backdoor sliders to start an at-bat), but it wouldn't be a huge surprise if he toyed with Hamilton early in the game in an effort to get him to think twice about the scouting report on Hernandez. 

It's going to be a fun cat-and-mouse game to watch. Individual matchups like this one don't come around every day.

Predictions

I can't bring myself to expect Hernandez to have three poor outings in a row, so I'm looking for him to pitch like his usual self on Monday night.

That's bad news for Hamilton and the Rangers, who—let's face it—are in a minor rut at the moment.

Hernandez: 7 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 7 SO.

Hamilton: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 SO.

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