Aroldis Chapman: Terrible Decision to Make Him the Cincinnati Reds Closer

Just when you thought the Cincinnati Reds couldn’t mismanage Aroldis Chapman’s development any more than they already have. This happens. 

Now, this is a terrible decision for a whole host of reasons, at least half of which have to do with how good Sean Marshall actually has been this year, once you control for plain dumb luck.

However, I’m not going to talk about those reasons, primarily because these guys and these other guys have already done a much better job than I could, and I have nothing further to add.

Sean Marshall is a stud of a pitcher who has had an unfortunate run of bad breaks and the small-sample-size blues, which, coupled with Dusty Baker’s (and to be fair, the average fan’s) inability to get past outdated metrics, has led to him losing his job.

But there is another reason, besides Sean Marshall, not to make Aroldis Chapman a closer.  That is Aroldis Chapman.

I am also not going to argue here that Chapman should be in the rotation. I believe that, but just like with the Marshall discussion, I have nothing terribly useful to add that hasn’t already been said. The subject has been discussed ad nauseum; the evidence is incredibly one-sided, and it should be obvious.

Rather, I am going to argue that even if he stays in the bullpen, Chapman should not be the closer. Here’s why.

1. He can have more impact as a setup man.

Closers have a very specific role: the ninth inning in save situations. The ninth inning is often not the most important inning in a baseball game. If the Nos. 3, 4 and 5 hitters come up in the eighth and are followed by the Nos. 6, 7 and 8 in the ninth, you cannot reasonably say that the closer had more impact on that game than the setup man simply because he finished it.

Chapman has been used so far in almost exclusively high-leverage situations, where the game was quite literally on the line (and he has been phenomenal at it). That will not always be the case if he closes.

He has also been brought in to clean up other pitchers’ disasters, and has been an absolute sure-fire rally-killer in those situations, allowing zero inherited runners to score. Say goodbye to that too if he becomes a closer.

Closers generally don’t do that. They pitch their own innings, start to finish. You will have to rely on someone else to put out those fires instead of your most capable guy. If you have a pitcher meltdown in the seventh or eighth, and no one to step in and pick up the pieces, the ninth doesn’t really matter too much, does it?

2. He can go multiple innings as a setup man.

 Chapman has the makings of a starter; that’s clear. But that doesn’t just make him a good starter; it also makes him a good setup man.

Of Chapman’s 17 appearances, he has gone more than one inning in more than a third of them (and again, has been very effective each time). You can forget about those innings too if he closes. Closers don’t go multiple innings.

3. His effectiveness will drop from being used multiple days in a row.

This is something closers have to do on a regular basis. There is no regularity to the distribution of save situations. Sometimes you have none for a week. Other times you have them six days in a row.

There is very little data on Chapman actually being used multiple days in a row; only time will tell. But it stands to reason that a guy with a fastball that hovers between 97 and 102 mph needs rest to be at top effectiveness.

This is not to say he will not be effective, but you will see his velocity dip from record-setting to solidly above-average. He’ll still be a good pitcher, but as good as he has been?

The flip side of this is that sometimes there will be no save situations for days at a time, and we’ll be watching our greatest asset sit on the bench, not contributing and possibly losing effectiveness from lack of work, which can be just as deadly as overwork.

4. Setting up won’t kill his arm. Closing might.

Besides reduced effectiveness, throwing multiple days in a row will seriously increase the risk of injury. Chapman has not proven to be the most durable pitcher in the world, and running a hard thrower out there night after night is like playing Russian roulette.

We can debate whether he should be a starter or a closer, but we should all be able to agree that losing him to a season-ending injury would be a disaster. Why increase the risk?

5. Setting up will allow him to transition to the rotation easier if and when we need him.

 Even if you don’t think the rotation is the ideal place for Chapman, it is nice to know he is there in case we need him, especially given the shaky starts some of the guys have given us this year as well as their penchant for injury last year.

Baseball is an unpredictable game, and it is hard to imagine the Reds using only five starters this year. Last year they used 10. By keeping Chapman’s work and his rest regular and using him in multiple innings when possible to keep him stretched out, he can maintain the skill set required to start later in the season. 

If you make him the closer, he will have none of those things, and he will not be ready to make the transition if and when you need him. That could be September, and it could be the difference between a playoff berth and looking in from the outside.

Chapman should be starting. That is as plain as day. His skill set is much better suited to starting games that to being in the bullpen. But moving him to closer takes a terrible decision and makes it much much worse.

Here’s an analogy. I like analogies. Let’s say I have made the world’s best Cincinnati-style chili (seems appropriate, right?). It is smooth, and savory and perfectly spiced. I take it to Dusty Baker to try.

Me: Here Dusty, check out this incredible chili I just made. It is like no other chili you have ever had in your life. I lost the recipe, so make sure you savor it, because there is only one tub of it.

Dusty: I know, we’ll put it over ice cream.

Me: I’m not sure that’s the best use for this chili. It’s not really a dessert chili. It would be much better over spaghetti, but OK, if that’s what you want to do. It’s so good, you really can’t screw it up.

Dusty: Actually, on second thought, let’s douse it in gasoline, light it on fire and try to catapult it over the moon. That is clearly the perfect use for the world’s best chili.

Me: That is a much, much, worse idea.