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I'll Have Another: Odds Kentucky Derby Winner Is Up Against at Preakness

Chris TrapassoJun 7, 2018

Forget all the Preakness' odds, post positions and horses that ran well in training sessions this week leading up to the 137th Preakness. 

Let's take a look at history. 

You know, the thing that oftentimes repeats itself?

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This year's race has been hyped as a duel between Kentucky Derby Winner I'll Have Another and runner-up Bodemeister, a horse that's emerged as the 8-5 favorite at Pimlico. 

There's a handful of variables that factor into the race, but what does history tell us about I'll Have Another's chances to win the second leg of the Triple Crown?

Triple Crown Winners

The Triple Crown wasn't recognized as a series of the Derby, Preakness and Belmont until 1930. Since then, 10 horses have claimed the illustrious title. 

Affirmed was the last horse to win the Triple Crown in 1978. 

So, that means of the 81 runnings of the three-race series, 12.3 percent of the participating horses have captured the Triple Crown. 

Not the greatest initial odds for I'll Have Another. 

Derby and Preakness Winners 

To use the most tired cliche in all of sports, I'll Have Another has to take everything one race at a time. Looking at the winners of the Derby, Preakness and Belmont are essentially irrelevant to Saturday's race.

Counting the 10 horses that went on to with the Triple Crown, an astonishing 31 total horses have won both the Derby and the Preakness in the same year. That's a 38 percent clip since 1930.

Far from horrible odds for I'll Have Another. 

Unlike the Triple Crown winners that all won between 1930 and 1978, a handful of horses have recently won the first two legs.

War Emblem did it in 2002, Funny Cide in 2003, Smarty Jones in 2004 and Big Brown in 2008.

The odds are certainly against I'll Have Another, but history says the chestnut colt has a better chance than you may have initially believed. 

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