Fantasy Baseball 2012: Rest-of-Season Projections for Home Run Leaders

AccuScore, a company that specializes in thorough game simulations, has made a few on-the-fly revisions to its seasonal projections.

The following 39 hitters, based on AccuScore estimates, will register at least 19 home runs from this point forward (May 18-Sept. 30):

1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays—35
2. Josh Hamilton, Rangers—29
3. Curtis Granderson, Yankees—28
4. Albert Pujols, Angels—26
5. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays—26
6. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers—25
7. Paul Konerko, White Sox—25
8. Adam Dunn, White Sox—25
9. Mark Teixeira, Yankees—25
10. Adrian Beltre, Rangers—24
11. Prince Fielder, Tigers—23

Breakdown

• I concur with AccuScore's projections for Jose Bautista. Low batting average aside (.207), he has the tools and statistical indicators (great BB/K ratio, high on-base percentage) to crack 40-plus homers for a third straight season. It's just a matter of time before the breakout captivates the fantasy universe.
• Mark Teixeira is an interesting prospect the rest of the way. Yes, his strong walks-to-strikeouts ratio (11/18) suggests that he's only swinging at quality pitches—but the .228 batting average and .386 slugging rate are way too low for someone of Teixeira's caliber. Of course, Tex has a history of notorious slow starts, so we'll see how this one shakes out.
• I'm on record for being skeptical of Adam Dunn's power projections for June through September. He's obviously swinging the bat well now, but it's important to remember he was batting something like .179 back on April 17 (with one homer)—and that was coming off a sub-.200 campaign for 2011. Fifteen homers from this point forward? OK, I'll buy that. But I don't see Dunn racking up 37 total by the season's end.

12. Matt Kemp, Dodgers—23
13. Jay Bruce, Reds—23
14. Ryan Braun, Brewers—22
15. Nelson Cruz, Rangers—22
16. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins—22
17. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies—22
18. Mike Napoli, Rangers—22
19. David Ortiz, Red Sox—22
20. Bryan LaHair, Cubs—22
21. Corey Hart, Brewers—21
22. Nick Swisher, Yankees—21
23. Mark Reynolds, Orioles—21
24. Josh Willingham, Twins—21
25. Joey Votto, Reds—21

Breakdown

• I like Stanton's odds of belting 30 homers, despite a prolonged power slump in April that may have been the result of knee problems. But those worries have subsided, given Stanton's eight-homer May and propensity for making sublime diving catches at the Marlins' new ballpark. In time, hopefully that speed and versatility will pay off with five to seven steals as well.
• Jay Bruce's stellar season (10 HR, 27 RBI, 21 runs, three steals, .291 batting) goes deeper than his capacity for 30 homers. He's also a fantasy force in runs, steals and—yes—batting average in his fifth MLB season. With a strong finish to the 2012 campaign, Bruce might finally qualify to be a Round 1 or 2 pick in roto leagues next year.
• All signs point to Votto posting monster numbers from this point forward. Since May 3, Votto has been hitting at a .383 clip with four homers, 10 RBI, 10 runs and one steal. He's also the current MLB leader in doubles (17) and walks (35), numbers that fuel his off-the-charts OBP (.466) and portend a sizable uptick in homers for the next four months.

26. Adam Jones, Orioles—21
27. Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics—20
28. Robinson Cano, Yankees—20
29. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies—20
30. Dan Uggla, Braves—19
31. Carlos Pena, Rays—19
32. Kelly Johnson, Blue Jays—19
33. Carlos Beltran, Cardinals—19
34. Carlos Quentin, Padres—19
35. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees—19
36. Luke Scott, Rays—19
37. Jesus Montero, Mariners—19
38. Jason Kipnis, Indians—19
39. Mark Trumbo, Angels—19

Breakdown

• Adam Jones (.604 slugging/.949 OPS) is on track to shatter previous highs in runs, homers, RBI, batting average and steals. From a power standpoint, fantasy owners would be thrilled if he finished the season with 34 total homers. In time, that mark would probably stand as a personal best.
• I agree with AccuScore's power projections regarding Robinson Cano. He may be a lock for triple digits in runs and RBI, but he'll likely fall short of his 28.5 home run average from the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Still, 23 in a year where the other categories are sharp is still very good.
• I'm encouraged by AccuScore's ambitious projections for Mariners catcher Jesus Montero (five HRs, 17 RBI, .244 batting). Twenty-four homers would be an unqualified success for a young talent with a slugging rate that's below .400. But that, in a nutshell, is what makes rookies so fascinating: One month they're dying on the vine...the next, they're taking major strides to becoming household fantasy names in the very near future.
• With a .640 slugging and 1.067 OPS, it's hard to envision Mark Trumbo (six HRs, 16 RBI, .370 batting) having a better year, even if Albert Pujols was his typical all-world self. With a plum spot in the Angels' lineup, Trumbo is a virtual lock to post career marks in runs and batting average. He may even surpass last year's 29 homers and 87 RBI. Either way, Trumbo has far exceeded his Round 10 value from the March drafts.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.