Early Top 50 Big Board for Fantasy Football Drafts

Fantasy football draft season is around the corner in redraft formats. If you have not already begun preparing for fantasy football season, now would be a good time as we are trapped in the doldrums of minicamps and organized team activities. 

Now that we have had some separation from the NFL draft, here is an early look at my top 50 fantasy football players.

Note: PPR scoring is assumed for the purposes of this slideshow

41 to 50

Just Missed: Roy Helu, RB, Redskins

He caught 49 passes last season and played well when he started. I was higher on him earlier this offseason, but Mike Shanahan's stubborn loyalty to Tim Hightower depresses Helu's value a bit. His upside should ultimately win out, but he needs to improve his pass protection to put Hightower in his rear view mirror once and for all.

50. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles

Hopefully a season when he does not have to worry about injury while seeking a new contract will help. Jackson was one of the more frustrating fantasy players last season. He should bounce back.

49. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants

For a brief period of time, Bradshaw was the man in New York. Then they drafted David Wilson.

Bradshaw will still be the starter and garner the majority of the playing time, however, making him a decent option as your RB2.

48. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers

Yes, Greg Schiano likes to run the ball, and Doug Martin is talented enough to capitalize, but he will likely be splitting time with LeGarrette Blount, who is liable to take most of the goal line carries to boot.

47. Roddy White, WR, Falcons

White has been a great PPR option for years, but Julio Jones will overtake him this year. The 31-year-old receiver should still have a great year, but I expect him to fall off a bit. He only had a 57.5 percent catch rate last season, and I do not expect him to get nearly 175 targets like he did.

46. Eli Manning, QB, Giants

After nearly hitting the 5,000-yard mark, Eli Manning is finally getting some respect in the fantasy football community. He is still not on the same level as the guys ahead of him, but he is a good value in the middle rounds.

45. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons

He may be 29 going on 43, but Turner is coming off another good fantasy campaign despite concerns about dead legs going into last season. 

Turner does sport some red flags going forward, though. He may have annihilated the Buccaneers in week 17, but they had already given up on their coach by then. His 3.3 YPC in the five games leading up to that contest are worrisome, as is Jacquizz Rodgers' continual development and increased role.

44. Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs

His quarterback situation continues to be the concrete shoes on his fantasy stock, but Bowe should put together another solid season as the top receiver in that offense.

43. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers

How will Jackson fare on his new team? Though Philip Rivers was not quite his dominant self last season, he is still better than Josh Freeman.

Without a tight end like Antonio Gates to put pressure on defenses, and with a run-heavy mentality, I am not sure Jackson's statistics will be nearly as gaudy in central Florida as it was in southern California.

42. Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins

After much rightful skepticism last season, Bush enters this season with a 1,000-yard season under his belt and dibs on the majority of carries in Miami.

You might look at what Joe Philbin's running backs did in Green Bay the past couple of seasons and scoff at Bush's fantasy potential, but take a deeper look at those guys and running backs under Mike Sherman and you will see that Bush is in line for a great fantasy season.

If he can stay healthy.

41. Jordy Nelson

This may seem low for Nelson after a breakout season, but there are several indicators that he will fall back down to earth this year.

Namely, he scored 15 touchdowns, just one shy of league-leader Calvin Johnson. If you think Nelson is in the same class as Megatron, whom I expect will regress a bit himself, you need your head examined. While he can certainly do it again with Rodgers at the helm, to expect Nelson to repeat that performance is simply foolish.

31 to 40

40. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys

Dallas' No. 1 receiver admitted he was unprepared for the start of last season, which likely contributed to his injury woes and lack of production in most games. 

He still operates in a high-powered offense, though teammate Dez Bryant continues to rise above him as a fantasy option.

39. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys

If Felix Jones could just stay healthy he might be here instead of Murray. Then again, Murray is no stranger to injuries.

38. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos

Coming back from an Achilles injury is tough, but Thomas proved it can be done. He had a furious finish last season with Tim Tebow throwing the ball. With a legend under center, he might just have a fantasy explosion.

37. Mike Wallace, WR Steelers

Installing a more pass-heavy offense under Todd Haley could benefit Pittsburgh receivers, but Wallace's refusal to sign his franchise tender could hurt him in the short term. 

36. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings

Harvin had a breakout season largely thanks to the 52 rushing attempts he got, a big spike from the year before. The Vikings might try to do more of that this year as Adrian Peterson makes his way back from injury.

35. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints

Though his return yardage is only valuable in leagues that count them, Sproles is a stud option in PPR leagues. He led the league with 86 catches last year and there is no reason to believe he will not challenge for that title again.

34. Tom Brady, QB, Patriots

The Patriots are going to light up opponents, and Brady will be the reason. Coming off a season during which he broke Dan Marino's yardage record, even though he was the second one to it after Drew Brees, his offense only got stronger with the addition of Brandon Lloyd.

The only reason he is sixth is because of his age—he has to begin his decline sometime.

33. Kenny Britt, WR, Titans

The mercurial receiver shook off some off-the-field troubles last season and was fantasy football's leading scorer until he went down for the season with a knee injury. He should be back to normal soon enough to reprise that role to a certain degree.

32. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants

A sleeper no more, Cruz finds himself in new territory going into 2012. Cruz thrived in the slot last season playing alongside Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham when he was healthy. He should reprise that role with rookie Rueben Randle in the fold as an outside receiver.

31. Cam Newton, QB, Panthers

As incredulous as this seems, do you expect Newton to surpass 10 rushing touchdowns again, let alone get back to 14? 

His role as a goal line back was a major reason why he scored so many touchdowns last season. With Mike Tolbert signed away from the Chargers and a normal regression coming anyway, I expect his total to be at least halved.

Even so, Newton was not too shabby throwing the ball last season, surpassing 4,000 yards as a rookie. He did fade a bit as the season wore on, however, which is the main reason why he fell outside my overall top 30.

21 to 30

30. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams

Old Man Jackson has a new running mate in Isaiah Pead, his theoretical successor. Though I expect Jackson to retain a big portion of the workload, he will give way to the rookie at times, assuming Pead is as good as advertised. 

This means we might be seeing Jackson's time as an important fantasy contributor come to an end, though being ranked 30th is not exactly terrible.

29. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers

Jennings was outshined and outperformed by teammate Jordy Nelson last season from a statistical standpoint. Is this the beginning of a trend?

Once considered a borderline first round pick, Jennings finds his stock slipping. Failing to crack 1,000 yards for the first time since 2007 is a big reason.

Health was a factor, though, as Jennings played in just 13 games, though one of those he was going to miss anyway when the Packers decided to rest starters in Week 17.

28. Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions

Stafford's weaponry just keeps getting better. He already has the best wide receiver on the planet to throw to, and he also has solid targets in Nate Burleson, Titus Young, Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler.

The Lions went out and got him another toy in Ryan Broyles.

Stafford was just the fourth quarterback in history to surpass 5,000 yards, though he was the third to do it last season in an ever-increasing passing league. The difference is Drew Brees and Tom Brady are 33 and 35 respectively.

Stafford is 23.

His ascent to the fantasy elite is not complete, but he is going to be the top quarterback in the league sooner than later if he can stay injury-free.

27. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys

Last year was supposed to be Bryant's breakout season, but Laurent Robinson stole the show as the team's third wide receiver. It was frustrating to watch the Cowboys play at times because it felt like Tony Romo was purposely avoiding Bryant.

Can Bryant become a consistent fantasy threat this season?

26. Adrian Peterson, RB Vikings

All Day might just be running a little less than that this year, at least to start the season.

The fact that he might be ready to go in Week 1 after tearing his ACL and MCL on Christmas Day last season is astounding in itself, but what kind of fantasy impact will he have after such a short recovery time?

Peterson is a gamble because there is a chance he will not be himself at all this season. He is also worth it because of the chance he will be.

25. Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears

The last time Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall were on the same team, Marshall had his two best seasons, catching 205 passes for 2,590 yards and 13 touchdowns over the course of two seasons.

Those seasons were just their second and third in the league.

The problem with Marshall from a production standpoint is that he has not scored a lot of touchdowns on a seasonal basis—his career high is 10 touchdowns in 2009. Of course, if he would not have dropped so many in Miami this might be a moot point.

I expect big things out of Cutler and Marshall this season if they can both keep their heads on straight.

24. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots

Potential contract disputes notwithstanding, Welker's production could take a bit of a hit this season with the arrival of Brandon Lloyd. 

It could also rise with defenses having to account for him and everyone else on that Patriots offense.

23. Michael Vick, QB, Eagles

The talented quarterback fell far short of fantasy expectations last season, before which he was ranked as the No. 1 overall player by some experts.

That should make him a bit of a bargain this season, one during which I expect Vick to get closer to his 2010 form. With a full offseason under his belt again, incredible talent to draw from the well, and Super Bowl aspirations, top-three quarterback territory is not far-fetched.

22. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints

Yes, Graham put up WR1 numbers last season, but unless you have multiple starters at the position in your league, tight ends are simply not worth incredibly high picks. With the likes of Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Jacob Tamme, and even Brent Celek falling into the later rounds, is it wise to spend a high pick on a tight end?

Still, he is ranked highly precisely because he produces like a top-flight receiver. It is your call to pull the trigger on him this early.

21. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons

Were it not for some injuries, Jones would have challenged A.J. Green for top-rookie status as a receiver last season. The Falcons are all in this season, and playing alongside Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez will have its benefits. I expect a big season from Jones.

11 to 20

20. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs

Whereas Adrian Peterson was injured in late December, Charles was injured in mid-September, giving him over three months more time to recover and rehab. He says he is ready to go for training camp, a good sign for the Chiefs as they try to rebound.

Peyton Hillis' arrival will hurt Charles' stock a bit, however, particularly because he looms as a touchdown vulture. Hopefully Todd Haley's departure will mean more playing time for Charles, however.

19. Trent Richardson, RB, Browns

Normally putting a rookie in the top 20 is ludicrous, but Richardson has the rare combination of talent and opportunity that will make him a viable RB1 this season. With his best competition for playing time coming from Montario Hardesty, I expect Richardson to fly out of the gate. 

I do think he might hit a rookie wall sometime mid-season, however, so tread with caution.

18. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots

How often do you see a tight end crack the first round in a fantasy draft?

Raise your hand if you expect Gronkowsk to repeat his record-breaking performance. While he will certainly be an integral part of the Patriots offense and score gobs of fantasy points, I am not sure he will single-handedly get fantasy owners into the playoffs like he did for yours truly last season.

Still, he is the best tight end going into the season, and his top-flight numbers are hard to ignore. Again, tight ends are a dime a dozen compared to other positions, making this a bit of a luxury pick if you do spend one this high on Gronk.

17. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills

This may seem a little high for a 31-year-old running back with stiff competition for playing time, but Jackson was leading the league in fantasy scoring at running back last season before his season was cut short by injury.

The fact that Buffalo was willing to give Jackson a new contract is telling about how much they expect him to contribute. C.J. Spiller will likely cut into his playing time after performing well down the stretch last season, but I still expect Jackson to score a lot of fantasy points in that offense.

16. Drew Brees, QB, Saints

Whether Brees is happy about his contract or not, he is still one of the best quarterbacks in the game today. I am more concerned about Sean Payton's absence than the other offseason distractions surrounding the Saints.

15. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks

Mr. Skittles Beast Moded his way into fantasy owners' hearts and landed a lucrative new contract as a result, but is he worth a first round pick in 2012 fantasy drafts?

For all his well-documented feral exploits, Lynch averaged just 4.2 YPC—not poor, but not great. His 12 touchdowns buoyed his fantasy value more than anything, and touchdowns are the most finicky statistics to predict.

Fortunately, Lynch does not have a touchdown vulture—he is the goal line back in Seattle. Hopefully he did not spend the offseason eating Skittles with his fat, new contract.

14. Matt Forte, RB, Bears

This ranking comes with the biggest caveat of them all: Forte must attend training camp. We all saw what happened to Chris Johnson after holding out last season. If the Bears can get their act together and sign Forte to the long-term deal he is seeking, he will retain his standing as a top-flight fantasy running back.

13. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals

Of all the talented rookie receivers that have made their mark on the NFL in recent seasons, none was more impressive than Green in Cincinnati.

He is the only rookie to top 1,000 yards receiving over the past four seasons. With some help on the other side in the form of rookies Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones, and a year of seasoning under his belt, I expect big things from Green this year.

12. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants

With Eli Manning joining the ranks of the elite and the emergence of Victor Cruz, Nicks will continue to enjoy freedom from double teams and quality passes thrown his way. That is good news for the talented receiver and his fantasy owners.

11. Andre Johnson, WR, Texans

I wavered on this one a bit before sticking to my guns because of recent arthroscopic surgery to Johnson's knee, but he sounds optimistic that he will be ready for training camp.

Until last season, Johnson had never been injury-prone. Unfortunately for him, the Texans and his fantasy owners, he was dogged by injuries all year long, making him a fantasy bust on the season.

He will come at a discount as a result, and he is still as dangerous as ever.

10. Larry Fitzgerald

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals

Despite the quarterback woes in Arizona, Fitzgerald still ranked sixth amongst receivers in fantasy scoring last season. 

The main reason for that was Kevin Kolb's injury, forcing John Skelton into action. The latter seems to get the ball to the all-world receiver better than Kolb—Fitzgerald averaged 2.5 more targets and scored all but two of his touchdowns with Skelton at the helm.

Hopefully, for his and his fantasy owners' sakes, Skelton wins the job this preseason. Getting arguably the best receiver in the draft class in Michael Floyd as a running mate will be a big boon for Fitzgerald as well.

9. Darren McFadden

Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders

Yes, McFadden has never played a full 16-game season.

Yes, he is coming off a foot injury that was more serious than was let on and ultimately ended his season after just seven games.

McFadden is a risky proposition, but one that will pay off immensely if he can finally put together an injury-free season.

I realize that is one big "if" considering his history, but McFadden would have challenged for the top spot at fantasy running back last season had he not gotten injured. The risk is being built into his ADP to an extent—he would be in consideration for the top overall fantasy pick this year were it not for his injury woes.

8. Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers

Normally a quarterback is not worth a first round draft pick because there is little positional scarcity and the difference between the top guy and the rest is not enough to warrant such a pick.

Not so with Rodgers.

The reigning MVP averaged 0.44 fantasy points per snap (PPS) at quarterback. 0.72 points per pass attempt (PPA), and 26.89 points per game (PPG), easily winning all those categories.

The only negative on Rodgers could be the improved defense the Packers should have after addressing needs along their defensive front in the draft.

7. Chris Johnson

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans

Johnson had a terrible fantasy season after holding out for much of last year's preseason, and fantasy owners may not forgive him for burning them.

I expect a big bounce-back season for Johnson, who is Tennessee's best weapon and a supreme pass-catching threat out of the backfield.

6. Maurice Jones-Drew

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars

Did you know that the reigning rushing champion is just 27 years old? 

Jones-Drew rushed for 1,606 yards last season to lead the league on 343 carries, and there is no serious competition for playing time on the horizon.

He did this without a serious threat in the passing game.

Now that the Jaguars have picked up Laurent Robinson and Justin Blackmon to bolster the wide receiving corps and give Blaine Gabbert some real receivers, Jones-Drew might get some more room to operate.

5. Ryan Mathews

Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers

The talented running back is entering his third season and finds himself with a rightful reputation as a delicate player.

It seemed like Mathews would exit every game for at least a drive or two with an injury last season, frustrating owners like myself.

Injury concerns aside, however, Mathews is has incredible upside as a fantasy commodity.

He has a career 4.7 YPC rate after hitting 4.9 last season. He only scored six touchdowns, but he no longer has Mike Tolbert to vulture goal line carries. He caught 50 passes, and that number should go up significantly considering Tolbert caught 54.

If he can stay healthy, Mathews could be the top PPR running back, perhaps even the best in all league configurations. Like McFadden, his injury history is the only thing holding him back from a higher spot.

4. Calvin Johnson

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions

Curses do not work on robots.

Set aside your fears and superstitions, Calvin Johnson is the best receiver on the planet and he will surely reward your fantasy team. Drew Brees was on the cover for Madden 11 and threw for over 4,600 yards that ensuing season. Larry Fitzgerald was on it the year before and had his best season in recent memory.

All that aside, Megatron is just on another level as a receiver. While it might be difficult to reach 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns again, if anyone could replicate those numbers it is Johnson.

That makes him a top-5 pick in PPR formats.

3. Ray Rice

Ray Rice, RB, Ravens

Were it not for Darren Sproles, Ray Rice would have led the league with 76 receptions.

He has become one of the more consistent fantasy options at the top of drafts, and this year is no different. 

Much like Matt Forte, Ray Rice's ranking is contingent on him participating in training camp. He, too, is seeking a contract extension. Unlike Forte, however, Rice is actually making progress toward a deal.

Hopefully Cam Cameron does not shy away from using Rice to his fullest like he seemed to at times last season.

2. LeSean McCoy

LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles

I thought McCoy would eventually slow down on the touchdowns last year, but he just kept getting into the end zone. He wound up with 17.

That number should regress, but McCoy remains the lead back in a dangerous Philadelphia offense. It was a bit surprising that he only caught 48 passes considering his pass-catching prowess, however. 

That low total is what kept him from the pinnacle of this list. No. 2 is not so bad.

1. Arian Foster

Arian Foster, RB, Texans

Was there a real doubt who was number one?

The stud running back in Houston landed himself a long-term deal, but that does not mean his production should fall off. 

After an injury sidelined him for two of the first three games last season, Foster rolled to the tune of 4.4 YPC. He wound up fourth in PPR scoring despite missing three total games.

Even with Ben Tate playing well, Foster will be the focus of a Houston offense that believes in the run. He will be a fantasy stud once again.