Preakness 2012 : Why Bodemeister Is an Even Better Bet for Preakness Than Derby

Many could argue that Bodemeister should've won the Kentucky Derby, and they're right, in a sense. He proved to be one of few front-runners who actually lived up to the immense pre-race hype, displaying a combination of blazing speed and fortitude that kept him at the front of the pack for most of the race.

Until the final furlong, that is, when he gave up his lead to long-shot I'll Have Another.

Reason seems to point to the idea that if the Kentucky Derby track were one furlong shorter, Bodemeister would've been able to clinch the win. And as luck would have it, the track at Pimlico is only 1 3/16 miles.

This is a race that seems to be made for a horse like Bodemeister, an excellent sprinter with early speed who proved that even in the sloppy conditions at Churchill Downs on May 5, he wouldn't falter. Even in defeat, he still held strong and pushed through, managing to finish second.

All speculation aside, Bodemeister—currently the 7-5 morning line favorite, according to Go Horse Betting—is the best bet for practical reasons. According to NewJerseyNewsroom.com's Tom Valledolmo, the Derby is a great predictor for which horses will triumph and which ones will fall because it is a race that "has a way of exposing horses' strengths and weaknesses."

What we saw from Bodemeister's performance at the Derby is that he has top-end speed that is capable of blowing away most of the rest of the field. He ran the first half-mile at Churchill Downs in 45.39 seconds and six furlongs in 1 minute, 9.8 seconds. He didn't begin to wear down until the very end of the race, allowing I'll Have Another some leeway to catch up.

But if the track is shorter, logic suggests that Bodemeister won't wear down, and I'll Have Another—or anyone else—won't have as much time to catch up.

Trainer Bob Baffert, winner of five Preaknesses, told the New York Post's Ed Fountaine that he's confident in his colt's chances at Pimlico in the aftermath of the Derby: "The main thing is, he’s healthy. He looks good, his coat is good and he is eating well. He deserves a shot to run. I see no reason not to take him."

Valledolmo also mentions the fact that the winner of the Preakness is almost always a Derby horse, which would suggest that either Bodemeister or I'll Have Another is a very safe bet. But Bodemeister's dominance in shorter distances makes him just a slightly better selection. 

But then, there is one more major strike against I'll Have Another, courtesy of Valledolmo: 

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The usually lightning-fast surface and the track’s tight turns hinder the come-from-behind types, making it almost impossible for them to mount any serious rallies late in the game. Horses either on the lead or close to the pace throughout definitely have an advantage.

"

As (Bodemeister's) luck would have it, a late-race rally is exactly what allowed I'll Have Another to score the victory at the Derby. 

Looks like a victory is in the cards for Bodemeister.