I'll Have Another: Why Preakness Odds Are Stacked Against Him

I'll Have Another won in spectacular fashion at the Kentucky Derby earlier this year, but the odds of him winning at the Preakness Stakes are slim.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not categorically stating that the colt has no way of winning, but there are a few factors going against him on his way to a possible Triple Crown. 

Here are the reasons why I'll Have Another's chances of winning the Preakness aren't good.

Shorter Track

The Preakness's main event is one-sixteenth of a mile shorter than the track at the Kentucky Derby. For those of you who watched the Derby you know exactly why this is an issue for I'll Have Another. 

For those of you who missed it, I'll Have Another didn't look to be in contention until the final stretch. He overtook Bodemeister and the leaders during the final 200 yards, and it wasn't until the final 100 yards that he really took off to win by a length-and-a-half.

Bodemeister is clearly the fastest horse entering the Preakness. He may not have the most stamina, but as a pure sprinter he has no equal. I'll Have Another and his jockey, Mario Gutierrez, don't have the luxury of holding off as long to make the final push this time around, and it could very well be the undoing of their Triple Crown chances.

Quick Turnaround and Traveling Can be Rough on the Horses

The turnaround from the Derby to the Preakness is only two weeks, and the horses are traveling for a portion of that time.

It may not seem like a big deal, but running one of these races isn't exactly a walk in the park for these horses. They put every ounce of energy into running them, and sometimes they don't fully recover their full stamina and strength in such a short time.

Trainer Doug O'Neil understands how difficult it can be to pull this off. Any number of things can go wrong, and he talked to TimesUnion.com about this very thing:

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The thing is, you can't have anything go wrong. That is the concern. That's probably why we haven't had a Triple Crown winner since 1978 because it's difficult to travel to three states for the three races and not have them have a cough or a pimple.

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Went the Day Well's trainer chimed in about the difficulty of facing the quick turnaround:

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It's a pretty hard thing for a basketball team to come back and play in two or three days in the playoffs. Obviously, the more time you have, the better. I don't think people have an appreciation of how hard it is to win (the Derby) and then come back in two weeks.

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I'll Have Another has the physical tools to win the Preakness if he shows up at the top of his game, but if there's even a hint of a sign he's less than perfect, it's going to be tough to win the second leg of the Triple Crown.

History Is Against Him

According to Spiletta.com, since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978 there have only been 10 horses who have gone on to win the Preakness after winning the Derby.

That's less than 30 percent.

Like O'Neil said above, conditions have to be perfect for any horse to win. Nothing can go wrong, and the more races you enter the greater the chances will be that the horse isn't in perfect condition.

I'll Have Another has as good a chance as any horse who's ever won the Derby and the Preakness, but the odds are stacked against him. It will be fascinating to watch him take on the challenge, and I will be rooting for him and Gutierrez to overcome the long odds.

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