Preakness Favorites 2012: Projecting How Top Horses Will Finish

Given an up-in-the-air field and uncertain odds, there are very few sure things to anticipate leading up to the 2012 Preakness, aside from the fact that Kentucky Derby victor I'll Have Another will be there. 

I'll Have Another trainer Doug O'Neill is eager for another victory that will bring him one step closer to a Triple Crown—so eager, in fact, that his horse arrived at Pimlico just two days after his Derby win. But with less than a week remaining until the race, the field remains unsettled and no one knows what—or whom—to expect. 

If all goes according to plan, I'll Have Another's top challenger will be Bodemeister, the former Derby favorite with blazing speed who is trained by five-time Preakness winner Bob Baffert. But just as I'll Have Another emerged from a crowded field to win despite 15-1 odds, it's very possible that another horse will come out of the woodwork to surprise the world with a first-place finish on Saturday.

Here's a look at how the top horses could fare at Pimlico on May 19. 

Bodemeister

Bodemeister
Odds, courtesy of AllHorseRacing.com: 3-1
Predicted Finish: 1st

If trainer Bob Baffert actually decides to run his prize horse on Saturday, he has as good a chance as anyone of winning. 

Ever since Bodemeister finished second in the Kentucky Derby after giving up his lead in the final furlong, Baffert has insisted he'll leave it up to the horse as to whether or not the Preakness is in the cards.

After the Derby, Baffert told Brisnet.com, "I will let him tell me if he's ready, like I did with Lookin at Lucky." 

The strategy worked back in 2010, of course, when Lookin at Lucky finished sixth at Churchill Downs before emerging victorious in the Preakness. 

By all indications, the Preakness is a race made for Bodemeister. The colt is a sprinter with unbelievable speed, which he showed off at Churchill Downs when he set a record for the five fastest splits in race history. He ran the first quarter of the race in 22.20 seconds, the half-mile in 45.5 seconds and three-quarter mile in about a minute and nine seconds. 

Baffert told Brisnet.com:

"

It's the first time I finished second in the Derby that I wasn't pissed off. I was so proud of him. He ran an amazing race. He did all the dirty work. That :45 kind of got us. The last sixteenth killed us, but he ran amazing. 

"

If the Kentucky Derby were one furlong shorter, Bodemeister probably would've won. And, as luck would have it, the Preakness is one furlong shorter than the Derby. 

I'll Have Another

I'll Have Another
Odds, courtesy of AllHorseRacing.com: 3-1
Predicted Finish: Fifth

Maybe there was some beginner's luck in play with first-time Derby runner Mario Gutierrez, who jockeyed I'll Have Another to a first-place finish at Churchill Downs. Maybe the colt really is just as good as Bodemeister and Creative Cause. Or maybe he was just better suited for the sloppy conditions at the 1.25-mile Derby track.

There's a reason there hasn't been a Triple Crown winner in 34 years, and despite the fact that I'll Have Another is currently listed as the co-favorite with Bodemeister, he'll suffer the same fate as Derby winners who have come before him for the last few decades. 

Still, trainer Doug O'Neill is confident. He told The Baltimore Sun, "The great thing about our colt is that he's got enough natural speed. Bodemeister won't get an easy lead. If he's the only speed there, I'll Have Another won't be that far behind him."

But the colt could find himself facing four of the five horses who finished with him in the top six at Churchill Downs a couple of weeks ago, and those horses have a lot of natural speed, too. The field will be even more competitive than it was at the Derby because of (hopefully) better conditions and a shorter track.

I'll Have Another will certainly have to watch his back. 

Creative Cause

Creative Cause
Odds, courtesy of AllHorseRacing.com: 8-1
Predicted Finish: 2nd 

Prior to the Kentucky Derby, trainer Mike Harrington kept Creative Cause hidden away in a stable, but that's not the case as the Preakness approaches. Harrington let his horse loose for a two-mile jaunt at Betfair Hollywood Park on Sunday, according to DRF.com's Steve Andersen, and the horse looked eager and enthusiastic. 

It was a drastic change from his "quiet" post-Derby demeanor, where he finished fifth. He'll arrive in Baltimore on Wednesday, but Harrington isn't displaying the same cocksure attitude as some of the other trainers. He told Andersen he's worried that after flying from California to Kentucky, then back to California and then to Maryland, his colt's performance might suffer. 

He told Andersen, "I wasn't too interested in going to Baltimore for two weeks. I thought he'd be happier [in California]. I think he's got his mojo back. If the flight takes it out of him, we'll have to see."

Creative Cause has won four of his nine starts, and in all of those starts except the Derby, he's finished on the board. He should be able to get back to form on the shorter 1.1875-mile track at Pimlico. 

Hansen

Hansen
Odds, courtesy of AllHorseRacing.com: 8-1
Finish: 8th

Owner Dr. Kendall Hansen told Brisnet.com that he won't decide until Monday or Tuesday whether to race his colt, who is being trained by Mike Maker following a ninth-place finish at Churchill Downs. They will make their decision based on how the horse is feeling and who else is in the field. 

If five of the six top finishers from the Derby do end up racing at Pimlico, Hansen might not waste his time, especially considering the fact that the Preakness track is a tad too long for his horse. 

Though Hansen was heralded as a sleeper pick to win the Derby, the rest of the field proved to be too fast for him to keep up, a fact that wasn't lost on his owner. 

Hansen told The Times Union: 

"

If there is as much speed in the Preakness as there was in the Derby, I don't think we'll run him. If he is going out there chasing Bodemeister and Trinniberg like he did in the Derby, I can't see him going 13/16 miles. I don't want my horse losing. 

"

If for some reason Hansen does end up running, he'll likely finish in the middle of the pack again. All in all, though, this race doesn't make too much sense for him. 

Went the Day Well

Went the Day Well
Odds, courtesy of AllHorseRacing.com: 8-1
Predicted Finish: 5th

Trainer Graham Motion has a good track record with underdogs. After all, he commandeered Animal Kingdom to a win in last year's Kentucky Derby, and he's a big reason why Went the Day Well is garnering support as a potential candidate to win on Saturday. 

Though Motion hasn't yet decided whether or not his horse will race in this year's Preakness, he won't be waiting until race day to get him to Baltimore. Motion will make a final decision after watching his horse train and run a mile at Pimlico early this week. 

Last year, Motion made the mistake of shipping Animal Kingdom to the track on the day of the race, which he now regrets, so if Went the Day Well does run the Preakness, he'll be ready to roll much earlier. 

After a surprising fourth-place finish at Churchill Downs a couple of weeks ago, the odds aren't bad for Went the Day Well, but he'll likely have to compete with at least two of the horses who beat him in the Derby.

Perhaps on a shorter track, the horse—who's described by Motion as "an immature horse who likes to look around," according to The Baltimore Sun's Chris Korman—will fare better.