Preakness 2012: Why I'll Have Another Has Failed to Inspire Fear in Competition

I'll Have Another may have dominated the Kentucky Derby field with his under-the-radar speed, but for some reason, he hasn't intimidated anyone who will join him at the Preakness next week.

Maybe it's an underdog thing. It's like in the NBA playoffs, when an eight seed manages to knock off a Finals favorite in the first round but doesn't look scary at all to the team that's lucky enough to face it in the second round.

I'll Have Another entered the Derby with 12-1 odds, a No. 19 post position and a jockey making his first run at Churchill Downs, yet somehow, the unlikely victor managed to outrun favorite Bodemeister in the final furlong to seize the victory. In the process, he became the first horse to ever start from Gate 19 and win it all.

And yet, few trainers seem to think he can pull off yet another unlikely victory, on a shorter track and in a shorter field at Pimlico. But in truth, the Preakness looks like exactly the type of race I'll Have Another can win.

The horse showed no issues running on the sloppy, muddy dirt track at Churchill Downs, nor did he have trouble getting in a good slot to make his run at the end despite his unappealing post position. Jockey Mario Gutierrez didn't encounter any problems getting the best out of his horse, despite limited experience.

So in the Preakness—in which I'll Have Another will doubtlessly have an easier time showcasing his blazing speed—why is nobody giving him a chance?

For one, Graham Motion, trainer of fourth-place finisher Went the Day Well, isn't intimidated. He told the Courier-Journal's Jennie Rees: 

"

I guess we’ll see how much [the race] took out of him. It was a tough race for all of them, and it was very hot. Look, I don’t think it’s a horse everybody is going to be running away from, but that’s not to take anything from what he did. The first two horses ran remarkable races. 

"

Perhaps I'll Have Another isn't being deemed more of a threat because the conditions are expected to be better at Pimlico or because it isn't expected to be as hot, so the front-runners who were hindered by the poor conditions at Churchill Downs are expected to surge.

Particularly notable will be the performance of Bodemeister, who held a dominant lead for most of the Derby but blew it in the final furlong. In a shorter race, challengers like I'll Have Another won't have enough time to make up ground on Bob Baffert's speedy colt.

Or maybe a shorter track will simply give I'll Have Another an opportunity to call up his trademark bolt of speed a bit sooner. 

Whether or not I'll Have Another truly stands a chance of winning the Preakness, he can't be counted out by an unsuspecting field. His challengers saw what happened last time they disregarded him.