Kentucky Derby Winner: I'll Have Another Won't Win Preakness Stakes

I'll Have Another ran a great race today at the 138th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, but he will not duplicate this performance at the Preakness Stakes.

He pulled off an amazing closing act to snatch the victory away from the front-running Bodemeister.

It isn't impossible to come up with two consecutive wins in the Triple Crown races. It has been done four times in the past 10 years, though not since 2008.

But the task becomes more difficult for I'll Have Another, because Bodemeister, Trinniberg and other horses will almost certainly run better races. 

I'll Have Another has already stunned the horse racing world with a win against 15-to-1 odds. To expect him to pull off such a victory again is unrealistic.

Despite the intangible reasons to believe he won't run that well again, there is a more physical reason to doubt whether I'll Have Another will in fact have another.

It's as simple as length. The Preakness Stakes is the shortest of all the Triple Crown races at one-and-three-sixthteenths miles. The Kentucky Derby is one-and-a-quarter mile. 

If the Derby were that much shorter, it is logical to say that I'll Have Another wouldn't have had time to catch Bodemeister. It seems obvious that this horse has an advantage in longer races.

While that trait may be a great one for the marathon Belmont Stakes (its a mile-and-a-half long), it doesn't suit the Preakness. 

Compound that with the long odds I'll Have Another faced at the Derby, and I'd say this horse has no chance at the Triple Crown.

Here are the final results of the 138th Kentucky Derby, with odds info from kentuckyderby.com:

Finish	Horse	Jockey	Post	Odds
1	I'll Have Another	Mario Gutierrez	19	15-1
2	Bodemeister	Mike Smith	6	4-1
3	Dullahan	Kent Desormeaux	5	12-1
4	Went The Day Well	John Velazquez	13	30-1
5	Creative Cause	Joel Rosario	8	11-1
6	Liason	Martin Garcia	20	56-1
7	Union Rags	Julien Leparoux	4	5-1
8	Rousing Sermon	Jose Lezcano	7	40-1
9	Hansen	Ramon Dominguez	14	13-1
10	Daddy Long Legs	Colm O'Donoghue	1	26-1
11	Optimizer	Jon Court	2	42-1
12	Alpha	Rajiv Maragh	11	19-1
13	El Padrino	Rafael Bejarano	16	29-1
14	Done Talking	Sheldon Russell	17	39-1
15	Sabercat	Corey Nakatani	18	37-1
16	Gemologist	Javier Castellano	15	18-1
17	Trinniberg	Willie Martinez	19	44-1
18	Prospective	Luis Contreras	12	57-1
19	Take Charge Indy	Calvin Borel	3	11-1
20	Daddy Nose Best	Garrett Gomez	10	14-1

Brian Mazique

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