Kentucky Derby Odds: Risky Odds That Will Pay Off

Sure, anyone can put their money down on favorites like Bodemeister, Union Rags or Gemologist.

But not you. You want the long shot, the swing-for-the-fences bet, the horse that nobody saw coming and won you the big bucks.

I won't guarantee I've found that horse. I learned long ago not to guarantee anything at a horse race. But I've got a few suggestions for you in case you're feeling frisky when it's time to place your bet.

El Padrino: 26-1

It doesn't look like the rains are coming, making El Padrino a risky bet indeed considering he is a mudder.

The best bet for this long shot is that the track isn't particularly fast and he takes advantage. Keep an eye on the track as race-time nears—any indication of slop whatsoever make El Padrino a good play.

Daddy Long Legs: 23-1

For Daddy Long Legs, the goal is simple: Get out to a fast start and settle into the best position on the track for the horse, avoiding getting lost within the converging crowd as they settle toward the rail.

If Daddy Long Legs can settle behind early pace-setters like Trinniburg and Hansen (and perhaps Bodemeister as well), he'll have a chance to win.

The rail isn't the optimal place to start. But with a smart ride, a jockey can turn it into a beneficial position.

Hansen: 13-1

Hansen doesn't have the worst of odds heading into this race, though of those considered contenders, he comes in at the riskiest of odds at 13-1.

Hansen has a great opportunity at Post 14, as he is outside of favorites Union Rags, Bodemeister and sprinter Trinniberg, who isn't expected to win but should set the early pace. If Hansen can settle behind Trinniberg and get in front of the field, he's got as good a shot as any other horse to win this thing.

If you want to stick with a conventional choice but want some value for your buck, Hansen is the way to go.

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