Kentucky Derby 2012 Post Positions: Why Great Positioning Doesn't Ensure Victory

In 2008, Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby from Post 20. In 1998, Real Quiet won from Post 3. In 1988, Winning Colors won from Post 1, as did Ferdinand in 1986.

The point?

A solid post position is certainly nice, but at the end of the day, the best horse on that particular day will win the race, no matter where they begin.

Sure, certain horses at with certain post positions are a strategic match made in heaven. Dullahan sitting at Post 5 is one of those cases. The strong closer shouldn't have to worry about getting bunched up in the field early on starting close to the rail, and should be in prime position down the stretch to make his move.

Other horses will have to overcome a difficult draw. Union Rags may be a popular pick to win this Derby, but he didn't get a favorable draw, ending up on Post 4. With sprinters outside of him, the fear is he could get bottled up to the inside and never recover.

Unless he's the best horse on Saturday, that is.

Could a great post position be the difference between the winner and the field this year?

Absolutely—there's a whole lot of strategy packed away in the "fastest two minutes in sports." And with such a deep field this year, the smallest advantage or disadvantage could sway the outcome.

But a horse like Bodemeister could also simply run away with this thing, throwing all strategy out the window.

You simply never know. And that's why post positioning may help a horse, but it never guarantees anything.

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