2012 Kentucky Derby Contenders: Horses That Won't Live Up to the Hype

The Kentucky Derby has almost arrived, which means the time for talk is finally over. No horse race receives more hype than Saturday's yearly event because it's become more popular for the surrounding circumstances than the race itself.

It's always tough to separate fact from fiction when deciding on a horse to choose for the derby, so let's take a look at three horses that won't live up to the hype. For a full look at the field and each horse's morning line odds, click here.

Dullahan

It was surprising to see Dullahan listed at 8-1 when the odds came out following the post position draw earlier in the week. Even though he was lucky enough to draw a good starting spot, his inconsistent results make him a shaky pick.

He's coming off a win in the Blue Grass Stakes last win, but before that Dullahan only had one win in his previous six starts. He didn't finish in the money at last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, which features several of the same horses he'll face on Saturday.

If his odds were a little more reasonable, and they might get to that point later in the day, he would have some value. But based on the morning line, he's rated too highly to have confidence in.

I'll Have Another

I'll Have Another has both both his races since Mario Gutierrez took over as his jockey, seemingly setting the colt up for a strong Kentucky Derby run. That was until he drew post No. 19, which significantly hurts his chances.

Starting on the outside is incredibly difficult because it takes a horse out of its comfort zone. It's tough to gain any type of early traction because all of the horses on the inside clog up the middle of the track until the first run, leaving no room for the outside starters.

It's a perfect example of how much lucky is involved with winning the derby. I'll Have Another would have been a strong contender with a better draw, but has instead become overvalued.

Take Charge Indy

Most of the hype involving Take Charge Indy doesn't include the horse but rather jockey Calvin Borel. The three-time derby winner has become a fan favorite with his ability to lead underdog horses into the winner's circle at Churchill Downs.

Even Borel's magic tough has its limits, though. Aside from Take Charge Indy's recent Florida Derby victory, his results have been lackluster. The only races where he finished in the money were when he dropped down to face mediocre competition.

Borel will attempt his usual rail strategy that has worked so well for him over the years, but I don't think Take Charge Indy has the late kick necessary to finish the deal against a tough field.