Kentucky Derby 2012: Post Positions, Odds and Predictions for Every Horse

There's no clear-cut favorite for the 138th Kentucky Derby, so you're best off just flipping a coin to make your prediction about which horse will take the cake. 

Well, not exactly. But among odds-on favorite Bodemeister, Union Rags, Gemologist and Dullahan, you're bound to find your winner somewhere. 

Derby oddsmaker Mike Battaglia set the odds after Wednesday's post drawing and in an interview with USA Today, even seemed torn about whether to deem Bodemeister or Union Rags the favorite. In the end, he gave Bodemeister the edge because he was fortunate enough to draw post position No. 6 while Union Rags drew No. 4. 

Since 1975, however, only seven favorites have trotted away from Churchill Downs with the jackpot, so who knows? You might be better off picking a wild card—Daddy Nose Best, perhaps. 

In preparation for this year's Derby, which kicks off at 6:24 p.m. ET and will be televised on NBC, here is a breakdown of all 20 horses who will be running the mile-and-a-quarter track—and predictions for where they'll finish.

Daddy Long Legs

Post Position: 1

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 30/1

Prediction: 17th

Daddy Long Legs was doomed as soon as post positions were determined. Before that, he had a chance. 

Irish-born trainer Aidan O'Brien has tried everything possible to get his horse ready for the race, which has historically been a tough one for European stables. He's even had his stable staff try to simulate the loud and raucous Churchill Downs crowd. 

But given Daddy Long Legs' history at Churchill Downs—he finished 12th of 13 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile—it doesn't look good, especially with the worst post draw. That time, he started at No. 11, an equally terrible stroke of luck. 

Optimizer

Post Position: 2

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 50-1

Prediction: 13th

The knock on Optimizer is that he can't run on the dirt track at Churchill Downs. Grass, fine; dirt, no way. 

The Derby just isn't likely to be Optimizer's race because his talents won't be optimized (I went there) at Churchill Downs. He's a horse that is bred for long distances on grass, not shorter spurts on dirt. 

Optimizer's career record isn't incredibly impressive, containing just one win, which came in his debut at Saratoga. That was in August—almost one year ago. But those who took that win as a sign to put money on him—for example, in the Arkansas Derby—have been burned. 

The chances of an Optimizer win aren't good; he's more likely to finish in the middle of the pack. 

Take Charge Indy

Post Position: 3

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 10-1

Prediction: Seventh

Take Charge Indy is a horse who is largely being heralded as a sleeper pick, even more so after he drew post position No. 3. 

The horse will be ridden by three-time Derby champion Calvin Borel, who is well aware that the five keys to winning the Kentucky Derby are "hard work, family, treat owners right, treat trainers right and try," according to ESPN.com's Joe DePaolo. 

The experience is there—but is the talent, with this horse? 

The jockey won in 2007 with Street Sense, in 2009 with Mine That Bird and in 2010 with Super Saver. He and Take Charge Indy are a good sleeper pick, but after the colt finished fifth in the Breeders' Cup last year against some of the same competition he'll face at Churchill Downs, it's hard to say whether he can pull out a victory this time with higher stakes. 

Union Rags

Post Position: 4

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 9-2

Prediction: First

It's always a risk to pick a horse with so much hype surrounding him—especially considering how few favorites actually win the Derby—but it's hard to ignore one of the standouts in a field with very few of them. 

Union Rags' No. 4 post position isn't ideal, but he's trained by Michael Matz, who famously commandeered Barbaro to a win back in 2006. So despite a poor draw, it's not a stretch to think that he still could leg out the win. 

Plus, the last time the field was this wide-open was in 2006—and Matz managed to win that one by six-and-a-half lengths, the largest margin of victory in 60 years. 

Dullahan

Post Position: 5

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 8-1

Prediction: Third

In eight starts, the colt has two wins, two places and two shows and is a threat to come from behind and make a surge at the end. He won't shoot out of the gates and take the lead, but just like he did when he won the Blue Grass Stakes, he can still be a late threat at the finish line. 

But Dullahan, like some of the other horses in the field, is at a disadvantage because he's far better on turf or grass than he is on dirt. 

Dullahan is also one of very few horses who grew leaps and bounds between the ages of two and three, which makes him another good sleeper pick to win it all. 

Bodemeister

Post Position: 6

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 4-1

Prediction: Fourth

He might be the technical favorite, but even Derby oddsmaker Mike Battaglia admitted it was a tough call between him and Union Rags. Part of the reason for Bodemeister's perceived superiority is the fact that he won the Arkansas Derby by a dominant 9 1/2-length margin. 

But there is a lot of history working against the colt—130 years, to be exact. Not since 1882 has a horse that went unraced as a two-year-old won the Derby. 

If any horse can shatter that trend, though, it's Bodemeister, who's trained by three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert. One more victory, and he'll move up to second on the all-time list. 

Rousing Sermon

Post Position: 7

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 50-1

Prediction: 10th

Here we have a longshot you should probably stay away from, under all circumstances. The horse is a first-time entry for owners Larry and Marianne Williams, but despite Rousing Sermon's long odds, Larry isn't counting him out. 

Larry told the Idaho Press' Mike Stetson: 

"

I liken this to the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. I don’t profess to be a "Coach Pete" ‘cause he’s a very talented guy, but maybe we have an Ian Johnson in our horse. We’ll see come Saturday night. 

"

Larry, of course, is referring to Boise State's unlikely 43-42 overtime win over Oklahoma. 

Rousing Sermon has an excellent post position, but that likely won't be enough to help him emerge victorious in a field that greatly overmatches him. 

Creative Cause

Post Position: 8

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 12-1

Prediction: Second

There's an air of mystery surrounding Creative Cause, after he got the rumor mill running because he didn't leave the barn for two days after his workout on Monday. But not to worry—it is simply trainer Mike Harrington's policy for his horses to walk for two days after a workout. 

Creative Cause officially put a stop to all of the murmurs with a gallop around the track on Thursday, where he looked as healthy and ready as ever, and Harrington told the Associated Press, "I guess everyone will be satisfied now that the colt has gone to the track. I’ve always done this. Trainers handle post-workout time differently."

The horse is a good sleeper pick given his five starts as a two-year-old and three starts as a three-year-old. He's finished on the board in all of them and has never lost by more than a length—and he beat favorite Bodemeister to win the San Felipe Stakes. 

Trinniberg

Post Position: 9

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 50-1

Prediction: 16th

He's fast, yes—but is he capable of running the mile-and-a-quarter Kentucky Derby, given the fact that he's never run more than seven furlongs? 

His owner certainly thinks so. Bisnath Parboo recently told the Associated Press, "The way he’s training now, I’m 100 percent certain he’s going to win. He’s doing everything right. We couldn’t ask for nothing more. Nothing more."

The colt has been in first place at some point in every race he's ever been in, and in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, he ran the first quarter mile in 20.8 seconds. But the bad news is, he ended up losing that race by 13.5 lengths. 

Speed only gets you so far, for so long. 

Daddy Nose Best

Post Position: 10

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 15-1

Prediction: Eighth

While training the week before the Derby, Daddy Nose Best ran four furlongs in 49.23 seconds, which was nowhere near as impressive as many were expecting—but don't be deceived. The horse is capable of laying on the speed when he needs to. 

He ran the final two furlongs in 23.53 seconds, increasing speed effortlessly and giving off the impression that he's simply saving his best for showtime on Saturday. 

Though most of his work has been done on turf, he won on a dirt track at the Sunland Derby, so he's shown that he's capable of it, which already gives him a leg up on some of the competition. The only question is how he'll stack up against the top contenders in the Derby, most of whom he hasn't raced against.   

Alpha

Post Position: 11

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 15-1

Prediction: 15th

The bay colt was the runner-up to Union Rags in the Champagne and broke his maiden by six lengths at Saratoga, so he also falls into the potential-show-stealer category. But after a subpar performance in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, there were doubts. 

Alpha also went up against Gemologist in the Wood Memorial and lost, so even though he's faced some of the same competition he'll be up against at Churchill Downs, he hasn't been able to exert his dominance. 

The long odds don't bother assistant trainer Neil McLaughlin, who told the Augusta Chronicle that his first Derby horse, Closing Argument, had a lead inside the 16th pole—and his odds were 71-1.  

Prospective

Post Position: 12

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 30-1

Prediction: 19th

Prospective falls into the category of serious long shots who could maybe come out of nowhere to win. He finished 13th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall, but according to trainer Mark Casse, he runs well on the track at Churchill Downs. 

Casse told the Sporting News' Brad Telias that the track at the Breeders' Cup was tight, and gushing rain leading up to the race left the track in poor condition. It certainly won't be like that at this time of year, when the Louisville heat is sure to dry up every ounce of moisture on the track. 

The heat doesn't bother Prospective, and the track—if it's in the right condition—should be perfectly suited for his skills.

Went the Day Well

Post Position: 13

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 20-1

Prediction: 11th

Went the Day Well enters the Derby on the heels of a win in the Vinery Racing Spiral, when he beat eventual Lexington Stakes winner All Squared Away. 

Other than that, though, his wins are fairly unimpressive, given the competition. Particularly problematic is the fact that nine of the 13 horses that raced in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile have won graded stakes, but Went the Day Well has not. That doesn't bode well for his chances against much of the field at Churchill Downs. 

There is one bit of history that could help him out, though: Last year's winner, Animal Kingdom, also won the Derby coming off a victory in the Vinery Racing Spiral. 

Hansen

Post Position: 14

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 10-1

Prediction: Fifth

Is this year the year for the Great White Hope? Owner Dr. Kendall Hansen seems to think so. He recently told The Washington Post's Cindy Boren: 

"

We are going to win this race. We’re not worried about anybody. We have the best horse. Speed is dangerous, and he can go a mile and a quarter. Everybody will find that out in a couple of days. 

"

The horse draws a lot of acclaim for his white coat, the only white horse in the field for this year's race, and his resume isn't too shabby, either. He proved his mettle with a win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year, and his only loss in his last five starts occurred in January at Gulfstream Park, where he came in second to Algorithms. 

There are, however, concerns that the mile-and-a-quarter race wll be too long for him. 

Gemologist

Post Position: 15

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 6-1

Prediction: Sixth

Before the post drawing, Gemologist seemed like an excellent pick for the Derby. After drawing No. 15, it's a different story. 

Though he enters the race as the only undefeated horse and is currently 5-for-5, that streak is bound to be snapped on Saturday night. He does have trainer Todd Pletcher on his side, who's won the Derby twice, most recently in 2010.

But he's been untested in his wins and has only beaten he likes of Alpha and Optimizer in his prep races. Those horses didn't fare too well against potential Derby front-runner Union Rags. 

WinStar Farm president Elliott Walden is playing the lack-of-respect card, telling the Detroit Free Press: 

"

He's undefeated. That's special in and of itself. That could change, obviously. This is the toughest race he's going to be in, and every race up to this has been a stepping-stone where horses have been separated by region mainly...and you bring them all together and it creates that "cream of the cream," and we'll see what happens Saturday.

"

Gemologist has already won twice in Louisville, but not against this caliber of competition. That's bound to keep him out of the lead on Saturday. 

El Padrino

Post Position: 16

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 20-1

Prediction: 12th

Trainer Todd Pletcher's second horse in the Derby won't fare nearly as well as Gemologist. El Padrino is described by DRF.com's David Grening as "one of the forgotten horses" in this year's race, and that couldn't be more accurate. 

He won at Gulfstream and in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, but his fourth-place finish at the Florida Derby is perhaps a more accurate predictor of his chances at Churchill Downs. 

Pletcher, however, sees it as a blessing that no one's talking about his second horse. He told Grening: 

"

No one is paying him much attention which I think is good. I felt like we had a legitimate excuse in the last race in the way that we rode him. This is going to be his first opportunity to relax in the early part of a race and let the race unfold as opposed to riding towards the bias of the track or worrying about the 1-5 favorite. 

"

Still, El Padrino's resume doesn't even put him in the running to be a long shot. 

Done Talking

Post Position: 17

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 50-1

Prediction: 20th

It's the first time Hamilton Smith is training a horse entered in the Kentucky Derby, and even he doesn't seem to be too concerned with winning. It seems like he's happy to simply be there. 

He told the Richmond Times-Dispatch's John Packett, "It's pretty hard to come by a horse that's good enough to run in the Kentucky Derby. Naturally, you always hope to get one, but I really didn't think I'd ever get a horse of that caliber and go to the Derby."

Well, at least he's happy to be there, because his horse—who qualified for the Derby with a win in the Grade III Illinois Derby last month—doesn't have much of a chance to win. The colt raced five times as a two-year-old and has two wins and two third-place finishes to his name. In the Grade III Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct in March, however, he finished 10th. 

The bay colt is capable of coming from behind and snagging a win like he did in Illinois, but not against this kind of competition. 

Sabercat

Post Position: 18

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 30-1

Prediction: 14th

He's considered by some to be a good long-shot pick, and he's trained by Steve Asmussen, who's also trained two former Horses of the Year in Curlin and Rachel Alexandra. In the Derby, Asmussen has finished third with Curlin in 2007, eighth with Pyro in 2008 and second last year with Nehro. 

Last year, in his fourth start, Sabercat broke his maiden in the Monmouth and then followed that up with wins in the Garden City Stakes and the Delta Jackpot. In his only two starts this year, he's finished eighth in the Rebel and third in the Arkansas Derby. 

His pedigree makes it seem possible that he could be a contender late in the race, but in the end, the competition will out-do him. 

I'll Have Another

Post Position: 19

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 12-1

Prediction: Ninth

I'll Have Another at least stands a chance at Churchill Downs. The winner of the Santa Anita Derby—by a nose—deserves the honor of an outside chance. 

In his only other race of the year, I'll Have Another also posted a first-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. But like Hansen, the mile-and-a-quarter distance could be an issue for the chestnut colt. 

One thing that won't hurt him is his post position, which is actually suited for his style. Like many Derby winners, it'll come down to the home stretch for I'll Have Another, who—with the help of jockey Mario Gutierrez—will have no trouble getting good position at the tail end of the race, if it comes to that.

I'll Have Another could register an upset victory, but more likely will have a middle-of-the-pack finish. 

Liaison

Post Position: 20

Latest Odds, Courtesy of Kentucky Derby Futures: 50-1

Prediction: 18th

Star trainer Bob Baffert's second horse in the field isn't going to be another Bodemeister. Most likely, Liaison will finish at the opposite end of the field. 

The horse, to say the least, hasn't done well in his last several races. He hasn't won since the CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park in December and has yet to finish in the top three in 2012. According to Baffert, his poor performance in the Santa Anita can be attributed to his distaste for the track, and the fact that he almost wiped out and lost his rider. 

Baffert has no illusions that Liaison might win, but told the Associated Press that he at least wants to give the horse "a chance" at Churchill Downs, where he looks much more comfortable.