Five Reasons Penn State Will NOT Make The Tournament

As February is just around the corner, the microscope is starting to focus on some bubble teams in the realm of NCAA basketball. 

One team that is among the hot bubble names in the country right now is Penn State.

Not known for their basketball program (some guy name Joe Paterno has guided the football program for a while), the Nittany Lions are making a rare run for the NCAA tournament. 

This would be their first since 2001, when they made it to the Sweet Sixteen by knocking off Providence in the first round and second-seeded North Carolina in the second round before losing to Temple.

While I personally believe that Penn State will be in the tournament, I thought I would play devil's advocate and explore five reasons why they may be putting the "NIT" in Nittany Lions in March.

1.  The Big Ten Conference

How many teams form the Big Ten will participate in the tournament?  Three?  Four?  Five or six?  For Penn State to be in the dance they may need to hope that the NCAA Tournament committee invites at least five teams from the Big Ten. 

This is not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination.  The Big Ten has had at least five teams invited every year this decade except for 2004, when three teams were admitted and last year when only four teams made it.  So the odds of five teams from the Big Ten getting five invites is not out of the question. 

The Nittany Lions are currently in fifth place in the Big Ten standings and seem to be well positioned.

2.  Schedule 

The Big Ten may not be the best basketball conference this year, but they do have some stiff competition.  If the Nittany Lions want to go dancing they have their work cut out for them. 

The remaining schedule has six road games for Penn State and only four home games.  That schedule starts on the road against Michigan State, who may be the best in the conference, and is followed by a road game at Michigan. 

The Wolverines are improved this year but Penn State has already beaten them.  A split in the state of Michigan would suit the Lions well. 

Other road games are at Purdue, Illinois, Iowa and Ohio State.  Home games are against Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota and a woeful Indiana squad.

3.  Tournament Resumé

When it comes to bubble teams the committee likes to see quality wins.  The Nittany Lions have none. They have lost head-to-head games against Rhode Island and Temple, both of whom may be on the bubble themselves. 

They have a win against Georgia Tech on the road, but the Yellow Jackets are not a threat to make the tournament this year unless they surprise everyone in the ACC Tournament. 

What also will hurt is a loss to Minnesota, who is fourth in the Big Ten and sports a better-looking tournament resumé.

4.  Free throws 

The Nittany Lions are owners of the worst free throw percentage in the Big Ten.  Their lowly percentage is an ugly 65.3 percent and in close games coming down the stretch that could hurt them, especially against tough teams. 

There will be close games before the Big Ten tournament and likely in the conference tournament.  Does anybody feel confident that Penn State can pull it together at the not quite charity stripe?

5.  They are...Penn State 

This is a school that has made three NCAA tournaments since 1991.  If it comes down to Penn State and a school like Villanova, which way would you go? 

Penn State does not carry the same clout that a school form the Big East or ACC or the Big XII or Pac-10 or even some schools from the mid majors like the Atlantic 10. 

Penn State can bring in some ratings based on their large alumni association and the casual Penn State fans who realize there is life after football, but the Nittany Lions will have to work hard to prove themselves worthy over some basketball schools with a deeper hardwood tradition like Cincinnati, Georgetown, and Temple.

I do have a gut feeling that the Nittany Lions will make the tournament, but I do believe these five reasons could hinder their chances greatly.  If Penn State is not invited to the NCAA tournament it will be a personal letdown as I have been predicting this team would make the tournament from the start of the season. 

They are a virtual lock for the NIT if the NCAA bypasses Paterno's favorite basketball squad.