Kentucky Derby Odds: Take Charge Indy and Horses That Will Ruin Tickets

Tim Daniels@TimDanielsBRFeatured ColumnistMay 5, 2012

LOUISVILLE, KY - MAY 02:  Jockey Calvin Borel works Take Charge Indy over the track in preparation for the 138th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 2, 2012 in Louisville, Kentucky.  (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Rob Carr/Getty Images

Even people who know nothing about horse racing like to make some Kentucky Derby picks. It's difficult to pick a winner because the field is stacked with elite three-year-old horses, but the unknown factor actually makes it more exciting.

Let's take a look at three horses with middling odds that will fail to finish in the money on Saturday afternoon, ruining plenty of tickets in the process. For a complete look at morning line odds for the year's biggest race, click here.

Take Charge Indy

The Calvin Borel factor will be in play as the three-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey will ride Take Charge Indy. Even casual horse racing fans know about Borel, who loves to ride the rail and starts from a favorite post position.

That said, his horse has been too inconsistent throughout his career to trust him on derby day. His Florida Derby put him on the map, but in his previous four races he only finished in the money twice. And both those were against inferior competition.

His odds will likely decrease throughout the day as people jump on the Borel bandwagon, so you're better off finding a horse with more value to pick.

I'll Have Another

It's a phrase that will be uttered quite frequently throughout derby day, but the odds are against I'll Have Another making an impact on the race. While he has three wins in five races, those numbers are deceiving.

He won the Santa Anita Derby in his last start, but only six horses since 1935 have won both that prep race and the Kentucky Derby. Neither of his other wins were against the same level of competition he will face at Churchill Downs on Saturday.

The other thing working against I'll Have Another is post position. It's extremely difficult to start on the outside and still win. That's exactly what he'll face starting in gate No. 19.


At first glance it might seem like Dullahan sits in a promising spot with his No. 5 post position. But when you consider that he'll be flanked by Bodemeister and Union Rags, the two top horses in the race, that position becomes less appealing.

Both those horses will be looking to make quick breaks, which could very well cause Dullahan to get squeezed out immediately. Then he'll be forced to race from behind and he doesn't have the closing speed to make a huge comeback.

He might be worth using on the back end of some superfecta picks, but otherwise there doesn't appear to be much return on investment when it comes to Dullahan.