Newcastle United: What Needs to Happen for Them to Reach the Champions League?

Much to the surprise of everyone besides a certain 606 caller, Newcastle United find themselves on the verge of Champions League football with just two games remaining in their 2011-12 campaign.

Current circumstances have them fifth in the Premier League table; level on points with the equally impressive Spurs in fourth.

Arsenal's 3-3 draw with Norwich today means that Newcastle are also just one point behind Arsenal in third, with a game in hand over the Gunners.

This puts Newcastle in great position ahead of tomorrow's game against Manchester City to make a late push for the top four, but let's go over what needs to happen over the course of the next couple of weeks for Newcastle to win Champions League qualification.

First of all, the key fixtures for Newcastle and their rivals:

Sunday 6 May

Newcastle vs. Man. City

Aston Villa vs. Tottenham

Tuesday 8 May

Liverpool vs. Chelsea

Sunday 13 May

Chelsea vs. Blackburn

Everton vs. Newcastle

Tottenham vs. Fulham

West Brom vs. Arsenal

Saturday 19 May

Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea (Champions League Final)

First and foremost, you need to know that a Chelsea win in the Champions League Final would make it third place—not fourth—that Newcastle would need to chase to earn qualification, making a tough job even tougher.

There are multiple points combinations that Newcastle can gain from their last two games—obviously ranging from zero to six—so let's look at what they'd need from the other clubs depending on how many they get.  

0, 1 or 2 Points

If Newcastle were to pick up a maximum of two points from their next two games, qualification would be virtually impossible. They'd need huge losses for Spurs in both of their remaining fixtures, and an equally big loss for Arsenal in their only remaining game.

Not going to happen.

3 Points

A loss against Manchester City and a win at Everton seems a likely outcome from the remaining fixtures, which would put Newcastle at a disadvantage but would not make qualification impossible.

Because they're so far ahead on goal difference, Spurs would need to draw both games, allowing Newcastle to move ahead of them on points.

For Newcastle to finish third, an Arsenal loss would also be needed, because a draw would, again, put them ahead of the Magpies on goal difference.

4 Points

Though a win against the Sky Blues would be fantastic, a draw seems a little more realistic, and in this case (assuming they win against Everton) it would certainly help in terms of finishing in the top three or four.

Newcastle would need no more than a win and a loss in Spurs' remaining games to pip them in the table, and a loss from Arsenal in order to finish third.

6 Points

The full six points would be enough to put Newcastle in the top four regardless of what happens, but they'd also need Spurs to drop at least two points in just one of their remaining fixtures in order to finish third.

On the whole, the odds are against Newcastle in the race for Champions League qualification, but if they can do the unthinkable and beat Man. City today, they'd be in prime position to gain a place in Europe's most prestigious club competition.

Thanks to Arsenal's draw, it is Spurs who could cause the most problems for Newcastle, and they'll need a huge helping hand from either Fulham or Aston Villa (or both!) to finish ahead of them.

The next couple of games will be as intense a set of games Newcastle have played since the relegation battle they ended up on the losing end of back in 2009.

As the only club without preseason expectations of a top-four finish, Newcastle really have nothing to lose in this run-in of games, which could really work in their favour.

We'll just have to wait and see what happens.