NBA Draft 2012: Predicting Who Will Be the Top 10 Rookies Next Season

The 2012 NBA Draft is widely regarded as one of the deepest in years.

In May, it is easy to say a draft will produce a lot of top-tier talent. It’s the following May when you can actually decide.

Will the 2012 draft live up to the fabled 2003 draft? Will it flop like the 2000 draft? Or will it carve out its own legacy somewhere in between?

Whichever way it shakes out, about 60 players will be drafted. Some of those players will flake out.

Others will become stars.

These 10 players will be the cream of the crop when Rookie of the Year voters start to fill out their ballots a year from now.

10. Meyers Leonard, C, Illinois

Seven-footers are coveted in every NBA Draft.

Some make an NBA splash as big as their shoe size, and others are colossal busts.

With Meyers Leonard, teams can be certain of what they’re getting: About 10 points and eight rebounds per 36 minutes as a rookie.

He won’t dazzle nor will he dominate.

Instead he’ll produce consistently with a steady back-to-the-basket low-post game. Defensively he’ll block a shot or two every night.

In a league that is weakening at the center position, Leonard will emerge as a solid one.

9. Drew Gordon, PF, New Mexico

Every year there is a second-round draft pick who emerges as an outright steal.

This year, it’s Sacramento’s Isaiah Thomas.

Next year, it will be Drew Gordon.

The New Mexico power forward is an effective scorer and a fearless rebounder.

If he is selected in the late second round to a contender as he is projected, Gordon will provide tremendous depth along the front line.

Gordon is not a guy who will likely start for a team but he will come off the bench and do the second unit’s dirty work, making the most of any opportunity he is presented.

8. Kendall Marshall, PG, North Carolina

Kendall Marshall will lead all rookies in assists in 2012-13.

The reason he is not higher on the list is because he will not be much of a scoring threat.

Marshall is an old-school point guard—think Andre Miller—who cares more about distributing than shooting.

As a result, teams will sag off and dare him to shoot perimeter jumpers. If he is able to make them pay, he will end up higher on this list.

However, Marshall seems almost unwilling to look for his own shot, preferring to dish to teammates instead.

And for good reason—he is easily the best passer in the draft.

7. Moe Harkless, SF, St. John’s

Moe Harkless figures to be picked late in the first round, meaning he will go to a winner. He won’t need to shoulder the load for a team right away.

Instead he will be able to acclimate to the NBA and learn from veterans.

But with as much talent as Harkless has, he also will need to see at least 20 minutes per game, either at the 2 or the 3 position.

Harkless is a tremendous athlete who can penetrate and create his own shot. He is the type of player who can find space in the mid-range and get his shot off.

Not only can he score the ball, he is a good rebounder, and his length creates problems on the defensive end of the court.

Harkless is the type of player who won’t necessarily score a ton of points, but he will fill the stat sheet on a nightly basis.

6. Draymond Green, SF, Michigan State

The National Association of Basketball Coaches named Draymond Green National Player of the Year last season.

Green has an incredible work ethic, which allowed him to become the POY. That same tendency to work hard will do him wonders in the NBA.

Green led the Spartans in scoring and rebounding last year. At 6’6” he does not possess ideal size to be an elite rebounder. But Green has the smarts and positioning skills to pull down boards, averaging better than 10 per contest as a senior.

Green also averaged nearly four assists a game, demonstrating he is a complete player.

He could become a Joe Johnson-type player with a very well-rounded game.

5. Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State

The most dangerous scorer in the draft also happens to be a point guard.

Traditionally that could present a problem. But as the NBA shifts toward a league featuring me-first point guards, Damian Lillard could become a star.

Lillard can sink threes, beat guys off the dribble and flat-out score.

He needs to improve as a passer to maintain a long-term NBA career. But as a likely top-10 pick, Lillard will more than likely go to a team in need of offensive firepower.

That opens the gate for him to establish himself as a volume scorer his rookie season.

Don’t be surprised if this 6’2” point guard ends the season as the leading scorer among rookies.

4. Andre Drummond, C, Connecticut

No player in the draft has bigger boom or bust potential than Connecticut’s Andre Drummond.

At best, Drummond’s massive size and athleticism could turn him into the next Dwight Howard.

At worst, he could enter the NBA unmotivated and become the next Kwame Brown.

That’s the mystery surrounding a 6’11,” 275-pound teenager—It’s up to the immeasurables like heart and desire.

I see Drummond succeeding in the NBA because he is too freakishly athletic to let those skills go to waste. There are very few centers in the league who can match up with him physically.

He will not be the most consistent player his rookie year, but he will provide enough Blake Griffin-like highlights to make a name for himself in his first season.

3. Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky

Anthony Davis will be a better version of Marcus Camby.

His shot-blocking prowess is unquestioned. He also shot a higher percentage in college and scored more in college than Camby ever did.

He is a very skilled big man who does not need his number called to affect games.

The reason he is not No. 1 on this list is because he will likely play for the Charlotte Bobcats.

There will be nobody on the team to take the offensive pressure off of Davis, nor will there be a point guard capable of getting him easy looks.

Still, Davis will continue to be a tremendous shot-blocker.

With Charlotte’s propensity to miss shots, don’t be surprised if Davis leads the league in offensive rebounds. That, in turn, could help him average a double-double as a rookie.

2. Harrison Barnes, SF, North Carolina

Harrison Barnes knows how to score, and he knows how to handle pressure.

The North Carolina swingman will have no problem adjusting to the rigors of the NBA.

A smooth 6’8,” Barnes’ game will translate nicely to the NBA.

He can spot up and knock down perimeter jumpers and he can create space for open looks.

Put simply, Barnes knows how to score.

But he is not satisfied simply putting the ball in the basket. His workmanlike attitude will drive him to continue improving his all-around game, especially on the defensive end of the floor.

Expect Barnes to battle it out with Damian Lillard for top scoring honors among rookies.

1. Terrence Jones, SF, Kentucky

While Anthony Davis is Kentucky’s top prospect, Terrence Jones is the Wildcats’ best immediate impact player.

Jones is an incredible physical specimen.

The guy is 6’9” and 245 pounds of muscle.

Aside from Andre Drummond, Jones has the most tailor-made NBA body in this year’s draft.

In his two years at Kentucky, he continued to improve his game.

Jones is a dangerous slasher going to his left, though he could improve his driving ability with his right hand.

He can make outside shots, midrange shots and finish at the rim.

He is an aggressive defender and a tenacious rebounder.

Expect to see Jones’ name flashing across the ticker as the 2012-13 Rookie of the Year.