Steelers-Cardinals X-Factors: What To Expect for Super Bowl XLIII

X-Factor No. 1: Road Skill

Neutral field games are essentially road games for both teams. It’s true that the disadvantage of being on the road is mitigated by the fact that the opposing team is on the road too, if that makes sense. However, the bottom line is that both teams are away from home, away from their own beds, their families, and they will be playing on an unfamiliar field without the benefit of a stadium filled to capacity with their own fans.

With this in mind, it is worth exploring the track records of both teams in road conditions.

All things being equal, neither team would figure to have an advantage on the neutral field. However, if one of the two teams has been particularly dependent on the home field in getting to this point, they may suddenly find themselves at a disadvantage in an unfamiliar environment.

This is precisely what we see this year with the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards were virtually night and day when it comes to home/road in the regular season, going 6-2 at home and 3-5 on the road. Their only regular season road victories came at San Fran, St. Louis, and Seattle. Admittedly, they did win at Carolina in the playoffs. However, this is their ONLY impressive road win of the season.

The Cards were fortunate to have their other two playoff games at home- a 30-24 win over a marginal Atlanta team, and last week’s tight win over Philly. Had they been on the road last week, or even on a neutral field, it is highly questionable whether they would have come out ahead.

As it stands, Arizona is now 8-2 at home and 4-5 on the road. In essence, they are dominant at home and average or slightly below on the road. Warner and company outscored their foes 242-178 on the season at home and were outscored 248-185 on the road.

Pittsburgh, by comparison, was 6-2 at home, 6-2 on the road, outscoring their opponents by nearly as much on the road as they did at home. Thus, while we can expect the Steelers to play their best game on Sunday, the Cards may see a drop off from the level of play they’ve demonstrated on their recent hot streak.

Add in the fact that Steelers' fans are expected to make a much stronger showing in Tampa than Cardinals' fans, and you have a neutral field situation that would seem to favor Pittsburgh.

X-Factor No. 2: Running into a Wall

While the strength of the Arizona offense is obviously the passing game, an important part of their playoff success has been a renewed emphasis on the run. The ability to run the ball over the last three weeks has been instrumental in providing the type of balance that opens up the play-action pass and the aerial attack in general.

Against Pittsburgh, however, it is highly questionable or even doubtful that Arizona will be able to continue their success on the ground. Although Edgerrin James has looked rejuvenated of late, he is still averaging just 3.9 yards per carry in the playoffs.

The Cards would like to think that Tim Hightower and/or J.J. Arrington will add an element of explosiveness that James clearly lacks, but it is unlikely that any of these Cardinal backs will strike any fear in the Steeler defense. Although Arizona will likely stick with the running game as long as possible in the interest of providing balance, they face a significant mismatch against the stout Pittsburgh run defense.

Prediction

The Cardinals are no fluke. With Warner playing as well as he has and Larry Fitzgerald looking virtually unstoppable, they certainly have a chance to spring an upset. However, due to the x-factors outlined above, the Steelers are my pick. Arizona averaged roughly 30 points per game at home this season and 20 points per game on the road. Also, they have yet to face a defense of Pittsburgh’s caliber.

Unlike Carolina and Philly, the Steelers do not need to devote extra players to the blitz to pressure the QB. Moreover, they should have little trouble shutting down the Arizona running game without putting extra men in the box.

This will allow them to make the Cardinals one dimensional, while at the same time devoting extra d-backs to help out against the receivers. Fitzgerald and Boldin will make some plays, but not as many they have in recent weeks, and not enough to win.

FINAL SCORE: Pittsburgh 28, Arizona 17