Kentucky Derby 2012 Post Positions: Predicting Slots for Race's Favorites

The Kentucky Derby is one of the biggest events every spring and this year's race will be one to remember.

The 138th field appears to be headed for a maxed-out roster of 20 horses, making a good post position vital for success.

A post too close to the rail and the horse will get stuck in traffic, too far to the outside and there is more ground to cover.  Traditionally, a post between slots five and 16 is thought as a solid position while a position anywhere else serves as a bad omen.

It has been over three decades since a horse has won from the second gate and only two horses have won from the first gate since 1964.

That's still better odds than a position on the outside.

Only one horse has won from gate No. 20 in the last 90 years.

The clear favorites for the race thus far have been Bodemeister and Union Rags, but both horses will need a good starting position to outrace what is a very capable field.

It has been a roller-coaster ride for those betting on Union Rags thus far in 2012.  The two-year-old horse easily won the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but then turned around and only finished third in a race which he had 5/2 odds.

However, Union Rags' trainer Michael Matz is not a new face in horse racing.  He turned Barbaro into a Kentucky Derby winner just six years ago.  While some say the Florida Derby performance was a fluke, a rare bad ride by jockey Julien Leparoux, others are claiming it points to the horse's inconsistency.

Regardless, winning the Kentucky Derby will be greatly influenced on what gate Union Rags emerges from at the start of the race.  The horse has plenty of speed, but there are questions about if the horse can sustain it for the 1.25-mile track.  As long as gates one through three and 17-20 are avoided, a top-three finish for Union Rags should be easily achievable.

Bodemeister is the other clear favorite challenging Union Rags.  The talented colt has already competed in four races this year, claiming first place twice and second place the other two times.  He currently leads all horses in earnings, and has had experience winning on the longer 1.25-mile track.

On top of all of that, the trainer is none other than horse racing legend Bob Baffert. 

Throw all of that into a prediction and you have your favorite to take home the blanket of roses this Saturday.

Only a bad draw could hurt the horse's odds, and it is going to have to be a gate on the outside.

Bodemeister has the power and breakaway speed to hold his own along the rail so anywhere between positions two and 16 should not cause too much concern.

A good post position draw for an average horse out of the field could lead to an upset in the 2012 Kentucky Derby, but Bodemeister and Union Rags have to be favorites from almost anywhere on the field.  Post positions will be determined later on Wednesday afternoon, so stay tuned!