Fantasy Baseball 2012: Projected Runs Leaders from May 2-Sept. 30

AccuScore, a company that specializes in thorough game simulations, has made a few on-the-fly revisions to its seasonal projections. These 43 hitters, based on AccuScore projections, will score 76 or more runs from this point forward (May 2-Sept. 30):

1. Ian Kinsler, Rangers—97
2. Curtis Granderson, Yankees—96
3. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies—96
4. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers—95
5. Ryan Braun, Brewers—94
6. Derek Jeter, Yankees—89
7. Matt Kemp, Dodgers—89
8. Jose Reyes, Marlins—89
9. Jason Kipnis, Indians—88
10. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays—88
11. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox—88

Breakdown

• If the projections are correct, Kinsler (five HR, 15 RBI, 26 runs, two steals, .303 BA) would break his own personal best for runs in a season (121). For anyone to log back-to-back seasons of 120 runs—especially with a .276 lifetime batting average—would be an extraordinary accomplishment. And if Kinsler should keep his average above .300, he'll be a legitimate MVP candidate by season's end.
• I'm feeling some pride over Granderson's great start (nine HRs, 17 RBI, 19 runs, 1.026 OPS), especially since I was mocked mercilessly for giving him a No. 4 ranking among outfielders back in March. On the down side, Granderson will likely fall short of matching last year's unattainable mark of 136 runs.

12. Albert Pujols, Angels—87
13. Josh Hamilton, Rangers—87
14. Robinson Cano, Yankees—87
15. Joey Votto, Reds—86
16. Desmond Jennings, Rays—85
17. Austin Jackson, Tigers—85
18. Brandon Phillips, Reds—85
19. Alex Gordon, Royals—84
20. Rickie Weeks, Brewers—84
21. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks—83
22. Corey Hart, Brewers—83
23. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies—82
24. Shane Victorino, Phillies—82
25. Mark Teixeira, Yankees—82

Breakdown

• At his current pace (assuming 150 games), Pujols would finish with only 52 runs, falling significantly short of these projections. But like AccuScore, I also believe that it's only a matter of time before Pujols finds his way in Anaheim. The day will come when he recaptures the greatness of his 11 prior seasons (445 homers, lifetime .327 batting) and puts an end to this nightmarish start.
• Justin Upton has been surging of late (two HRs, seven RBI, nine runs, three steals, .297 batting since April 17)...and now I'm in full regret mode for passing on a recent fantasy trade. At the time, I thought Upton's wrist injury would be a season-long nuisance—not unlike Giancarlo Stanton's bothersome knee—and that he'd finish the year at approximately 70 percent of his expected output. Big mistake.
• The pressure's on for Desmond Jennings (three HRs, nine RBI, 19 runs, six steals, .266 batting) to accelerate his production curve in the wake of Evan Longoria's injury-related absence (four to eight weeks). AccuScore projects 16 homers and 34 steals from this point forward.

26. Adrian Beltre, Rangers—81
27. Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox—80
28. Matt Holliday, Cardinals—80
29. Dexter Fowler, Rockies—80
30. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox—79
31. Prince Fielder, Tigers—79
32. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees—79
33. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins—78
34. Elvis Andrus, Rangers—78
35. Drew Stubbs, Reds—77
36. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates—77
37. Melky Cabrera, Giants—76
38. Cameron Maybin, Padres—76
39. Dan Uggla, Braves—76
40. Brett Lawrie, Blue Jays—76
41. Kelly Johnson, Blue Jays—76
42. Michael Bourn, Braves—76
43. Hunter Pence, Phillies—76

Breakdown

• As a frustrated Cameron Maybin owner (14 runs, .183 batting), I would gladly take 76 runs from this point forward, per AccuScore's projection. In fact, I would settle for 60 runs from May through September—that's how much his fantasy star has fallen. Which begs the question: Why am I still rostering him in 12-team leagues?
• Adrian Gonzalez (two HRs, 15 RBI, 12 runs, .261 batting) and Matt Holliday (five HRs, 15 RBI, 12 runs, .235 batting) have endured similarly shaky starts to the season; and yet, both stars remain bankable assets for the coming months. AccuScore has both players down for 92 total runs.
• There may be no price too high for landing Toronto's Lawrie via trade. In just 67 major league games, the kid has proven to be a reliable source in all five categories (12 HRs, 39 RBI, 39 runs, nine steals, .291 batting), and his knack for coming up big in the late innings is developing nicely as well. In terms of AccuScore's projections, I would buy the 'over' on Lawrie's total of 89. I'm thinking 93-94.
• Ah, so this is why Melky Cabrera (one HR, eight RBI, 14 runs, five steals, .287 batting) has played on four different teams in the last four years; and this is why some people characterized Cabrera's 2011 campaign with the Royals (18 HRs, 87 RBI, 102 runs, 20 steals, .305 batting) as the extreme high point of a respectable MLB career. Obviously, Cabrera has been okay this season—he's simply far off the pace of last year's prodigious numbers.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.