Kentucky Derby Odds: 3 Favorites Sure to Let You Down

Although Bodiemeister and Union Rags are favored to win the Kentucky Derby, don't be surprised if a long-shot leaves with the roses.

This year is considered to be one of the most wide open fields to date, with a slew of horses having a good chance to win.

History has not been kind to the favorites at Churchill Downs. After Big Brown winning in 2008, the past winner has gone off at an average of 26/1.

In 2009, Mine that Bird was 50/1.

Will another long-shot stun the crowd in Lexington? That remains to be seen, but here's why the winner may not be one of these three early favorites.  

Bodemeister

Even though Bodemeister enters as this year's favorite, he wasn't on the radar until his win at the Arkansas Derby. 

The colt won by by nine-and-a-half lengths for the first win of his four-race career. 

The lack of experience may be the bane for the Bob Baffert horse, considering that no horse has won the Kentucky Derby that didn't race as a 2-year-old.

Can Bodemeister break the "Curse of Apollo?'

According to Steven Christ of Daily Racing Form, Bodemeister has the talent to move past his inexperience. 

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I'm not saying Bodemeister's a cinch to win the roses, and I'm not going to quarrel with anyone who has doubts about his lack of experience, but I do think he is absolutely the horse to beat in the Derby.

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Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia said in a interview with Sporting News that even though the colt is a favorite, you can't disregard the Derby will be his fifth race.

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It's tough for a lightly raced horse to come back in three weeks and run well in the Derby.

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The Kentucky Derby will be a major test for Bodemeister, and with a deep field and limited big-race experience, the stage may too big for the colt.  

Union Rags

Union Rags is the other favorite to take the first leg of the triple crown with odds set at 9/2 as well. 

Although the colt has won four of six races, Union Rages was second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and third in the Florida Derby.

Churchill Downs is the biggest stage for the three-year-old, and though Union Rags has experience in some big time races, he was not always been able to come out on top.

According to John Chewra of the Los Angeles Times, Union Rags didn't showcase himself as a "great horse" and was a 6/5 favorite in the Florida Derby.

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It was a tough race in which he was caught behind horses and ran out of room. But, a truly great horse finds a way to win. Union Rags didn't.

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History is also not always on the favorite's side, including Union Rags.

Based on stats compelled by the Wall Street Journal, horses that have won one of the five major prep races: Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Blue Grass Steaks or Arkansas Derby,  have only won the "Run for the Roses" 7 percent of the time.

Dullahan

Dullahan is another horse that is getting attention not only for his win at the Blue Grass Stakes, but also for his name. 

However you say it, this horse has a chance to be successful at this year's Derby. 

Unfortunately, both of Dullahan's career wins have come on the Polytrack of Keeneland Race Course, and Kentucky Derby is of course run on dirt.

Dullahan does have a history at Churchill Downs, he just happens to be on the wrong end of the stick.

The colt has gone 0-3 and had a fourth-place finish at the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

The although he comes in at 8/1 odds to win, if you factor in the track and his inability to win in the shadow of the two spires, Dullahan won't win the 138th Kentucky Derby.