Kentucky Derby Post Positions 2012: Favorites That Won't Live Up to Expectations

The Kentucky Derby post positions aren't determined until Wednesday, May 2, but it's not too early to start looking some favorites for the big race.

The oddsmakers certainly already have their favorites, but by most accounts, this is a race that will be wide open. That means the favorites are likely to disappoint you and leave you with an empty bank account. 

Instead, it would be well worth your hard-earned money to let it ride on some underdogs. You don't necessarily have to go after the 100/1 longshots, but remember to stay away from these favorites.


Union Rags (9/2)

The two-year-old opened 2012 with a fantastic win at the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes, a race that was never in doubt. 

However, he followed that up with a disappointing race.

At the Florida Derby, where he was the favorite, Union Rags fell back early and could only finish third.

Nevertheless, this is a very fast horse with a trainer who turned Barbaro into the 2006 Kentucky Derby winner. Union Rags is a prime bounce-back candidate and is rightfully a favorite in 2012.

I just can't put my trust in a horse that was so disappointing last time out. I suggest you don't, either.


Bodmeister (9/2)

There's no question why Bodmeister is such a heavy favorite. In four races this year, the talented colt, who is trained by three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert, has two first-place finishes and two second-place finishes.

He is first among all horses in total earnings, and there is no arguing with the incredible speed that Bodmeister possesses.

Still though, he didn't participate in his first race until he was already two years old, which is almost unheard of for a Kentucky Derby winner. The lack of experience will hold this extremely fast horse back. 

If you're going for a trifecta, make sure to include him in your Top 3, but don't pick Bodmeister to win.


Creative Cause (11/1)

Speaking of the trifecta, Creative Cause might just be the best pick for a show or a place. 

The hard-trying colt has only won once in his last four starts, but has never lost by more than one length in his eight career starts.

He hasn't established himself as a winning horse, but he always comes close. 

What's more, according to James Scully at kentuckyderby.com, Creative Cause will likely cause you some trouble. 

"

"He has been a bit of a head case, refusing to run straight through the stretch of his win in the Grade 2 San Felipe two starts back, and his lack of maturity is a concern as trainer Mike Harrington keeps the blinkers off for a second straight start."

"

Sounds like the DeMarcus Cousins of horses. No thank you. 


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